Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14206
Virginia Continues to Lay Out as Key Battleground State in 2008: In an election for President of the United States held in Virginia today, 08/11/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama tie, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke and WJLA-TV in Washington DC. Today, it's McCain 48%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error, effectively even. Obama leads by 13 points in SE Virginia and by 11 points in the NE Virginia; McCain leads by 23 in the Shenandoah and by 5 in Central Virginia. McCain holds 89% of the GOP base. Obama holds 86% of the Democrat base. Independents break 5:4 for McCain. Moderates break 3:2 for Obama. Obama leads slightly among those who have graduated college. McCain leads slightly among those who have not. McCain leads among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads among those who rarely go to church. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 6 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 9. Among voters younger than McCain, the contest is effectively even.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 08/08/08 through 08/10/08. Of them, 782 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 655 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000. As evidence of Virginia's critical role in any 2008 victory, a number of the vice presidential running mates under consideration are from Virginia.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
655 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind Mad< $50K> $50KShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McCain (R)48%53%44%37%53%48%52%47%50%47%50%49%58%14%****89%10%53%82%37%11%46%51%53%47%37%66%35%47%49%47%48%59%43%40%51%
Obama (D)47%44%50%60%42%48%41%49%45%49%41%47%37%84%****7%86%42%16%59%86%49%44%42%49%58%29%61%37%50%50%47%36%54%53%46%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%21%35%27%17%56%44%50%10%40%74%19%3%4%32%37%25%33%43%13%60%40%51%28%22%42%56%16%82%27%73%23%28%20%28%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.