Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #7452
UNUSUAL VOLATILITY IN VA AS VOTERS GO TO BED ON ELECTION EVE: Interviews in the Virginia governor's race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor's Contest. This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days -- Saturday, Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, Kaine's lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days -- Sunday and today Monday -- are averaged, the contest is closer yet. When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data. For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.
Filtering: 1,800 Virginia adults were interviewed 11/5/05 - 11/7/05. Of them, 1,498 were registered voters. Of them, 804 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters.
Voters in Virginia will elect a Governor on Tuesday. If the election for Governor of Virginia were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jerry Kilgore? Democrat Tim Kaine? Independent Russ Potts? Or some other candidate?
804 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationChurchAbortionRegionGeocoding
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalGrad SchCollege Some ColNo ColleNeverOccasionRegularlPro-lifePro-choiNot SureShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral UrbanSuburbanRural
Kilgore (R)45%50%40%43%46%45%46%50%18%****83%7%38%84%26%8%35%50%47%55%29%48%50%73%25%48%51%34%48%47%42%44%50%
Kaine (D)50%44%56%54%48%50%50%46%79%****12%91%56%13%68%89%61%48%48%39%67%49%45%23%71%43%44%63%45%49%55%51%44%
Potts (I)3%4%1%2%3%3%2%3%1%****3%1%4%2%4%1%3%2%2%3%4%2%2%2%3%3%3%2%4%2%2%3%3%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%18%33%30%19%83%13%2%2%39%34%26%37%45%15%32%28%23%17%19%29%52%40%54%6%28%24%18%29%21%55%24%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.