Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12401

Geography Surveyed: Davidson County
Data Collected: 07/19/2007 - 07/22/2007
Release Date: 07/23/2007 9:55 AM ET
Sponsor: Nashville City Paper

Runoff Is Certain in Tough Three-Way Fight For Metro Nashville Davidson County Mayor: In an election for Mayor of Metropolitan Nashville today, 7/23/07, 10 days after early voting began and 10 days until Election Day, 3 candidates are tightly bunched, each with an excellent chance of advancing to a two-person runoff, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Davidson County voters conducted exclusively for The Nashville City Paper. Effectively tied for first place are former Congressman Bob Clement, Nashville Law Director Karl Dean, and Vice Mayor Howard Gentry. Councilman Buck Dozier and Councilman David Briley have clearly identified constituencies, but are not as likely to advance. The runoff is 09/11/07. Here is how the election stands today: Bob Clement, at 23%, needs the support of older voters to advance. Clement is backed by 33% of those age 65+. The older the electorate, the better for Clement. The younger the electorate, the worse Clement does. Clement also needs a strong turnout from those who think immigration is Nashville's most important issue. Clement runs disproportionately well among this group. Director of Law Karl Dean, at 21%, runs strongest among Moderates, voters age 50 to 64, and those who say Nashville should build a new convention center. If Moderates, voters 50 to 64, and convention center backers turn out in large numbers, Dean has an excellent chance to advance. Vice Mayor Howard Gentry, at 21%, runs strongest among African American voters. He gets 64% of black votes. In SurveyUSA's turnout model, 20% of likely Davidson County voters are black. Gentry's support is disproportionately young. Gentry leads -- significantly -- among voters 49 or younger, 10 points ahead of his nearest challenger, Clement. But: young voters are the least reliable, especially in low-turnout, stand-alone municipal elections. Gentry is strongly backed by those who say schools are Nashville's most important issue. 34% of those focused on schools vote for Gentry, 14 points ahead of Dean in this category. To advance, Gentry needs blacks, young voters, and the school-obsessed to vote in disproportionately large numbers. If blacks make-up fewer than 20% of likely voters, Gentry's support here is over-stated. Councilman Buck Dozier, at 16%, runs strongest among Republicans and Conservative voters, where he leads all others, and among voters focused on immigration, where he ties Clement. Among whites, Dozier runs third behind Dean and Clement. Among those opposed to the convention center, Dozier runs second behind Clement. Dozier runs stronger among men than women. If men make up more than 48% of voters, Dozier will outperform these numbers. Councilman David Briley, at 12%, runs strongest among Liberal voters.

For Vice Mayor, Neighbors May Avoid Runoff With Tucker ... Or, Maybe Not: Turnout will determine whether Diane Neighbors is elected Nashville Vice Mayor on 08/02/07, or whether she must face Carolyn Baldwin Tucker in a 09/11/07 runoff. Neighbors gets 48% of the vote today, to 29% for Tucker. 15% of those who cast a vote in the election for Mayor will not cast a vote for Vice Mayor. Of those who say they will vote for Vice Mayor, 15% have not yet chosen a candidate. If undecided voters break evenly, Neighbors will top the 50% + 1 vote needed to avoid a runoff. If undecided voters swing to Tucker, the two will face off in a runoff. Neighbors' support is old and white. Tucker's support is young and black. 77% of those who vote Dean and 69% of those who vote Briley vote downticket for Neighbors. 63% of those who vote Gentry vote downticket for Tucker.

New Convention Center Opposed: Of likely voters in the Mayor contest, 37% say Nashville should build a new convention center; 51% say Nashville should not.

Filtering: 1,000 Davidson County adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA Thursday 07/19/07 through Sunday 07/22/07. Of them, 876 were registered voters. Of them, 564 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the election for mayor, 478 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the election for Vice Mayor. Candidate names randomized: The names of the candidates for mayor were read to respondents in a random order. The names of the candidates for Vice Mayor were read to respondents in a random order. The results are presented here with the candidate names in alphabetical order, for ease of comprehension. Caution: This poll was completed 10 days before Election Day. It presents as accurate a snapshot of the election as is possible on the day of its release. Events may occur during the final 10 days of the campaign that could affect turnout or voter preference. Track Record: SurveyUSA is the nation's largest election pollster. SurveyUSA has polled on 775 election contests. Additional information about SurveyUSA's election track record is publicly posted here.