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SurveyUSA 11/7/06 Election Poll Scorecard

How close did SurveyUSA polls come to the actual outcome of the election?


SurveyUSA 11/8/05 Election Poll Scorecard

How close did SurveyUSA polls come to the actual outcome of the election?


Which Pollsters Were Most Accurate in 2004?

All Statewide Contests

Pres, Sen & Gov Only


SurveyUSA 14-Year Election Poll Track Record

Since inception in 1992, how has SurveyUSA done compared to other pollsters?

SurveyUSA’s public opinion polling work stands everyday alongside the best work done by the largest and most prestigious research firms in the country. Since inception in 1992, SurveyUSA has polled on 775 separate election contests (as of 1/1/07).

Every time SurveyUSA forecasts the outcome of an election, we compare that forecast to the actual outcome on Election Day. In so doing, we are able to measure precisely how accurate SurveyUSA’s pre-election polls are. In addition, for every election that SurveyUSA polls, we analyze the final forecast for each of the pollsters we compete against. In so doing, we are able to measure precisely how accurate our competition’s pre-election forecasts are.

Because SurveyUSA uses professional television news anchormen and anchorwomen to ask our poll questions, instead of headset operators, some of our competitors would like you to believe that SurveyUSA’s election polls are inferior. There is no need for conjecture on this topic. The evidence is right here. Study the data; draw your own conclusions.

The tool we have created is an Interactive Election Scorecard. Using it, you will be able to create your own on-the-fly, custom analysis of SurveyUSA’s work. For example, you can use the Interactive Election Scorecard to answer questions such as:

  1. Show me how SurveyUSA has done against all pollsters against whom it has competed on 10 or more occasions.
  2. Show me how SurveyUSA has done against Mason-Dixon Polling and Research using the measurement “Mosteller 2.”
  3. Show me how SurveyUSA has done against the Los Angeles Times Poll on all methods of measurement.
  4. Show me how SurveyUSA has done against the Keystone Poll using the measurement “Mosteller 5.”

It is important to keep in mind that SurveyUSA's 14-Year Interactive Election Scorecard is not a marketing document. It does not selectively include only SurveyUSA's best work, nor does it selectively exclude the competition's best work. Rather, the Interactive Election Scorecard is exhaustive: every SurveyUSA election poll is included, good and bad, since SurveyUSA began polling in 1992, and every known poll conducted by a competing pollster is included. In this way, the Interactive Election Scorecard is a scientific measurement of SurveyUSA's performance. You can search the Internet: no other pollster, academic or commercial, publishes an election report card similar to this. The Interactive Election Scorecard may challenge “conventional wisdom” and the opinion of some “experts” who have written about SurveyUSA.

Show Me The 14-Year Interactive Election Scorecard

Note: For those unable or unwilling to open Microsoft Excel documents over the Web, we offer the following static PDF images, which give you a glimpse of the data contained on the Interactive Election Scorecard.

PDF Summary
PDF Mosteller 1
PDF Mosteller 2
PDF Mosteller 3
PDF Mosteller 4
PDF Mosteller 5
PDF Mosteller 6
PDF Traugott
PDF Shipman

The data contained in the Interactive Election Scorecard was gathered by SurveyUSA employees from published news reports. In some, but not all cases, SurveyUSA was able to verify a competing pollster’s numbers directly from the competitor’s website. Every attempt has been made to make the Scorecard complete and accurate. If you detect an error or omission, please report it to editor@surveyusa.com, and we will correct our records, update the database, and generate a new Scorecard.


SurveyUSA 11/2/04 Election Poll Scorecard

How close did SurveyUSA polls come to the actual outcome of the election?

All 2004 General Election Contests

Earlier 2004 Elections, including Primaries

SurveyUSA 2003 Election Poll Scorecard

How close did SurveyUSA polls come to the actual outcome of the election?

All 2003 Contests


SurveyUSA 11/5/02 Election Poll Scorecard

How close did SurveyUSA polls come to the actual outcome of the election?

Governor Contests

U.S. Senate Contests

All Contests


Independent Validation of SurveyUSA

Research-on-Research conducted by an independent firm on SurveyUSA's work

SurveyUSA does private-label, subcontracted telephone field work for a number of the world's largest market research companies. These research giants turn to SurveyUSA to conduct research, which they then resell to their clients.

One such company, a $200 million custom research and syndicated tracking firm, wanted to make certain that SurveyUSA results were statistically valid before entering into a relationship with SurveyUSA. At its expense, it conducted 32 sets of parallel tests, during which identical studies were fielded by traditional phone and traditional mail methodology, alongside SurveyUSA methodology. More than 90,000 parallel interviews were conducted, in categories as diverse as dog foods, snack foods, baby foods, high-tech, pharmaceuticals, alcohol consumption, and consumer durables.

Conclusion: SurveyUSA results are not just comparable, they are in some ways better.

"We've now proven that IVR is actually superior to interviewer administered random digit dialed surveys for these short burst questionnaires."

---- Chief Research Officer,
$200 Million Research Company that uses SurveyUSA
At Product Launch of Interactive-Voice Offering

Contact SurveyUSA if you would like to receive a copy of the white paper prepared by this independent research firm, which summarizes the results of its validation studies on SurveyUSA.

 

 

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