### Electoral Math as of 03/06/08: Obama 280, McCain 258

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 03/06/08 02:04 PM

SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters in each of the 50 states. A total of 30,000 interviews were completed. If John McCain faces Barack Obama, Obama wins 280 to 256. McCain carries 26 states. Obama carries 24 states plus the District of Columbia … and then there is Nebraska, which divides its electoral votes based on which candidate wins each of the state’s congressional districts. McCain wins Nebraska 45% to 42%, but loses in two of the state’s three congressional districts, which results in Barack Obama taking two of Nebraska’s five electoral votes.

(click the chart to access the 50 separate sets of SurveyUSA poll results)

For results of the John McCain / Hillary Clinton pairing, click here.

There are specific limitations to this exercise. The winner’s margin in each state is not always outside of the survey’s margin of sampling error. Rather than show states where the results are inside of the margin of sampling error as “leaning” or “toss-ups,” SurveyUSA for this illustration assigned Electoral Votes to the candidate with the larger share of the vote, no matter how small the winner’s margin. The Democratic nominee is not yet known. Running mates on neither side are known. These are not surveys of likely voters, these are surveys of registered voters. Those caveats stated, the exercise is a remarkable foreshadowing of how contested, and how fiercely fought, the general election in November may be, regardless of who the Democratic nominee is. And the exercise speaks to which states may vote one way or the other, depending on who the Democrats nominate.

EHSFFL says:

If John McCain chooses Mitt Romney, Colorado Nevada & New Mexico could all swing to John McCain.

Ronnie says:

Since McCain is ahead in Ohio, polling data now shows McCain is leading electorally: 278 to 260. It will change many times until the election.

gentdave says:

If you call anything with less that a 5-point margin a battleground, you get this:

Obama vs. McCain

D – 236

R – 153

B – 149

Clinton vs. McCain

D – 221

R – 212

B – 105

But here is one point to think about – all 8 of the Senate seats the Democrats will be targeting for pick-up are Obama states. He should do more to help down-ticket gains. Louisiana is a Clinton state, she might help with preventing a lose here. Clinton is strong in areas that have been trending away from the Dems, and Obama is strong were they have been making gains.

JD Lasica says:

Interesting that you have Virginia going blue and New Jersey going red. I can see Virginia turning, but NJ will stay blue after the residents get to know Obama (though I hope McCain pours money into there, like the GOP tried the last 2 times).

It’s early, but I think it’ll be more lopsided than this, when voters realize that a 6-year war could turn into a 14-year war if McCain wins. Penn. and Mo. also will go blue, part of a wave of huge Democratic turnout.

manumoka says:

You may want to re-draw the Nebraska map to follow the contours of the congressional districts: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/af/NE-districts-109.gif

Tokar says:

@Louis Moreau:

Rank of states (including DC) on African American population based off Census 2000:
1 DC – 60.0%
2 MS – 36.3%
3 LA – 32.5%
4 SC – 29.5%
5 GA – 28.7%
6 MD – 27.9%
7 AL – 26.0%
8 NC – 21.6%
9 VA – 19.6%
10 DE – 19.2%
11 TN – 16.4%
12 NY – 15.9%
13 AR – 15.7%
14 IL – 15.1%
15 FL – 14.6%
16 MI – 14.2%
17 NJ – 13.6%
18 OH – 11.5%
19 TX – 11.5%
20 MO – 11.2%
21 PA – 10.0%
22 CT – 9.1%
23 IN – 8.4%
24 OK – 7.6%
25 KY – 7.3%
26 NV – 6.8%
27 CA – 6.7%
28 KS – 5.7%
29 WI – 5.7%
30 MA – 5.4%
31 RI – 4.5%
32 NE – 4.0%
33 CO – 3.8%
34 MN – 3.5%
35 AK – 3.5%
36 WA – 3.2%
37 WV – 3.2%
38 AZ – 3.1%
39 IA – 2.1%
40 NM – 1.9%
41 HI – 1.8%
42 OR – 1.6%
43 UT – 0.8%
44 WY – 0.8%
45 NH – 0.7%
46 ND – 0.6%
47 SD – 0.6%
48 ME – 0.5%
49 VT – 0.5%
50 ID – 0.4%
51 MT – 0.3%

Daniel Z. says:

Louis: The only way I can see that happening is if in those southern states that the Republicans don’t come out because they cannot get behind McCain.

SurveyUSA: Thanks for this site I asked for such results on my own blog. This poll is MUCH more meaningful than any of those nationwide surveys.

lomore says:

Are there some southern states(with large African-American populations) that Obama might win?