Electoral Math as of 03/06/08: Clinton 276, McCain 262

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 03/06/08 02:03 PM


SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters in each of the 50 states. A total of 30,000 interviews were completed. If John McCain faces Hillary Clinton, Clinton wins 276 to 262. Clinton carries 20 states. McCain carries 30 states. Details follow:

(click the chart to access the 50 separate sets of SurveyUSA poll results)

McCain v Clinton x 50 states Electoral Math 030608

For results of the John McCain / Barack Obama pairing, click here.

There are specific limitations to this exercise. The winner’s margin in each state is not always outside of the survey’s margin of sampling error. Rather than show states where the results are inside of the margin of sampling error as “leaning” or “toss-ups,” SurveyUSA for this illustration assigned Electoral Votes to the candidate with the larger share of the vote, no matter how small the winner’s margin. The Democratic nominee is not yet known. Running mates on neither side are known. These are not surveys of likely voters, these are surveys of registered voters. Those caveats stated, the exercise is a remarkable foreshadowing of how contested, and how fiercely fought, the general election in November may be, regardless of who the Democratic nominee is. And the exercise speaks to which states may vote one way or the other, depending on who the Democrats nominate.

twiga says:

Almost every other survey has mccain winning florida… Hence Hillary loses by a good bit. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_clinton-417.html

ntmessage says:

This shows that the election will be much closer than anyone thought. There has been a lot of talk about how Obama may steal some traditionally Red states.

What is interesting is that Clinton can win TN, ARK, FL and maybe KY. With the right VP she might even win IN. None of those looks doable for Obama.

In addition he runs much weaker in NJ, OH, PA and even CT. This is clearly the economy vote. He could flip CO, VA or MO and nail down toss-ups like WA. From an EC perspective seems like a lot more needs to happen with Obama after that to really say he is more electable. Even if the polls in NE show a split this and KS are hard to flip in practice.

This is at what may be the peak of Obama mania and at the same time the I will never vote for Clinton crowd seems to be reconsidering. Seems like the Obama path to victory is much harder than the Clinton one.

bigjohn500 says:

Has anyone noticed that Hillary and McBush are tied in TN at 46-46??
TN has a strong, well liked Democratic Governor, majority Dem. Congressional delegation, HUGE amount of religious conservatives that will NOT vote for the Liberal McBush under any circumstances [they will sit this one out], and Hillary stomped B.H. Obama 54-41 in the primary. And S-USA awards TN to McBush??

Give me a break, I live here and know the state, if things in November are similar as today, Hillary will take the state 52%-48%. If the recession worsens, 54%-46%.

eustis sarah says:

Why is Michigan awarded to Mccain vs Hillary – both have the same percentage there?

If it went to her, she would win by more than Barack.

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