Pennsylvania: Obama Making Inroads

SurveyUSA’s second tracking poll on the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania was released today, three weeks from the primary, and the results show Illinois Senator Barack Obama making inroads against Hillary Clinton among several key demographic groups, most notably men.
Clinton led by 19 points in SurveyUSA’s first poll on the race, released three weeks ago; today, she leads Obama by 12. Clinton has lost two points and Obama has gained five since the last poll was conducted, prior to widespread reporting of the comments made in sermons by pastor Jeremiah Wright, and prior to Obama’s March 18 speech on race.
Among men, Clinton had led by 5, today she trails by 7. Among women, Clinton’s support remains essentially unchanged — 30 points ahead of Obama three weeks ago, 28 points today.
Among the youngest voters, Obama has cut Clinton’s lead from 10 points to 3. Among those 35-49, from 7 points to 1. The shift is much less pronounced among older voters; among those 50+, Clinton had led by 26, and now leads by 22.
Geographically, Clinton has gained ground on Obama in only one region, the northeastern portion of the state, which includes Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where she has nearly doubled her lead, from 25 to 48. In Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia and which makes up 43% of likely Democratic voters, the candidates have traded places: Clinton had been up 2; she is now down 3. In Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton had led by 31, now by 17, a 14-point swing to Obama. In NW PA, which includes Erie … in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown … and in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg … each of which is small by itself … there is movement to Obama, which, when the 3 regions are combined, is worth noting.
Full results, crosstabs, and analysis are here.
Research conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.










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