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Republican Mitt Romney, whose father served as governor of Michigan from 1963-1969, would help John McCain beat Barack Obama in the presidential election in that state, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll looking at Vice Presidential pairings.
When Michigan registered voters are asked if they would vote for McCain or Obama, with no running mates mentioned, McCain leads Obama by 4 points, just within the survey’s 4.3 percentage point margin of sampling error. When Mitt Romney is added into the mix as McCain’s running mate, McCain performs better against nine possible Obama tickets, and worse against just one. John Edwards is the one Democrat who helps Obama, who still loses by 3 points to a McCain/Romney ticket — again within the survey’s margin of sampling error.
Mitt Romney today, 05/28/08, is a nationally known figure. Those Democrats who are also nationally known — John Edwards, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton — significantly out-poll those who are little known among the general population outside of their home states. The election is in 23 weeks; should Obama choose one of these lesser-known running mates, that person would have a significantly higher profile as the election approaches, and the “first-look” numbers shown here today will shift, as they have in the McCain/Obama matchup. When SurveyUSA first asked about McCain/Obama in Michigan, in October of 2006, McCain led Obama by 24 points; today, McCain’s lead is 4 points, just within the margin of sampling error.
SurveyUSA interviewed 600 Michigan adults 05/27/08. Of them, 529 identified themselves as being registered to vote and were asked the questions which follow. Michigan has 17 Electoral College votes.