In an election for Mayor of Denver today, 18 days until votes are counted, 3 candidates emerge from a crowded field, each with a chance to advance to a runoff election, should no one candidate receive 50% of the vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for the Denver Post newspaper and KUSA-TV Denver.

James Mejia, Chris Romer, and Michael Hancock are effectively tied for the lead, with a statistically insignificant 4 points separating the 3. Romer, a former state senator, today gets 22%; Mejia, head of the Denver Preschool initiative, gets 22%; Denver City Council member Hancock gets 18%. The contest should be characterized as a 3-way fight. City Council member Doug Linkhart gets 10% today. City Council member Carol Boigon gets 8%. Theresa Spahn, the former executive director of Colorado’s Office of the Child’s Representative, gets 4%. 17% of voters tell SurveyUSA they are undecided, or will vote for some other candidate.

Mejia’s support is younger, and therefore more difficult to forecast – young voters are the least reliable in traditional precinct elections. Because this election is conducted 100% by US mail, it is unclear to what extent younger voters may be over or under counted here. Romer’s support is older. Typically, older voters are the most reliable, especially in low-turnout, off-year, municipal elections. Hancock’s support is middle-aged. Mejia’s support is strongly Hispanic. SurveyUSA’s modeling here reflects Hispanic voter turnout of 19%. If Hispanics vote in larger numbers, Mejia will outperform these poll results. If Hispanics vote in smaller numbers, Mejia will underperform these poll results.

Romer’s support is spread across parties, with strength among the city of Denver’s few Republicans, and with strength among moderates. Mejia’s support is Democratic, liberal and female. Romer does well among gun owners. Mejia does well among the unarmed. Romer’s support is slightly more affluent. Mejia’s support is slightly less affluent. Hancock’s supporters are educated and affluent.

Denver voters say “Economic Development” is the most important issue in the contest, and voters focused on development see Romer, Hancock, and Boigon as strong on that issue. Voters say “Schools” is the 2nd most important issue, and voters focused on schools look to Mejia. Voters focused on the “Budget” look to Romer. Voters focused on “Police Use of Force” look to Mejia.

Unless support for the all 2nd-tier candidates collapses and undecided voters break entirely for one candidate, it is unlikely that any one of the 3 frontrunners will clear the general election threshold of 50% plus 1 vote needed to avoid a 06/07/11 runoff election between the top two finishers. For this reason, strategic voting may play a role in determining which 2 of the 3 leading candidates advance.