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In Florida, Rising Barack Obama Tide Does Not Float Democrat Bill Nelson’s Boat

SurveyUSA Operations - 07/20/12 05:58 PM

In an election for President of the United States in the pivotal state of Florida today, 07/20/12, three months till early voting begins, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 48% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV in Tampa. In one school of thought, Mitt Romney cannot capture the White House without Florida’s 29 electoral votes.

There is no gender gap in Florida, unlike many other states, but there is a material age gap and race gap: Romney leads by 4 points among voters age 50+; Obama leads by 14 points among voters age 18 to 49. Romney leads 5:4 among white voters, Obama leads 10:1 among black voters.

3 key groups propel Obama today: Hispanics break 5:4 Democrat. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. Independents break 4:3 Democrat. Obama leads among voters who earn less than $40,000 a year; Romney leads among voters who earn more than $80,000 a year. Those Floridians voting for Mitt Romney 3:1 prefer Marco Rubio to be Romney’s running mate over Condoleezza Rice.

In an election for U.S. Senator from Florida today, incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson does not fare as well as fellow Democrat Obama. Republican U.S. House member Connie Mack leads Nelson 48% to 42%, and is positioned for a possible Senate-seat takeaway.

Hispanics, who vote for Democrat Obama by 10 points today, vote for Republican Mack by 12 points, a 22-point difference. Independents, who vote for Democrat Obama by 11 points, vote for Republican Mack by 4 points, a 15-point difference. Middle-income voters, who vote for Democrat Obama by 11 points, vote for Republican Mack by 2 points, a 13-point difference. 9% of Obama voters cross-over and vote Republican in the U.S. Senate contest. These factors combine to tip the balance to Mack.

Bilingual survey conducted in Spanish and English includes cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 Florida adults 07/17/12 through 07/19/12. Of the adults, 725 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 647 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/06/12. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their telephone in their preference of Spanish or English. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents vote differently: Romney leads by 6 points among home-phone respondents, but trails by 34 points among cell-phone respondents. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 5 points reported here. Mack leads by 12 points among home-phone respondents, but trails by 15 points among cell-phone respondents. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, Mack leads by the 6 points reported here.

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