On Eve of MO Democratic Primary, Incumbent Clay Leads Displaced Carnahan in MO-01; Democrats Keep the Seat in November

SurveyUSA Operations - 08/06/12 12:15 AM


48 hours till votes are counted in the Democratic primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in Missouri’s newly-drawn
1st Congressional District, incumbent Lacy Clay┬ádefeats odd-man-out Congressman Russ Carnahan, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV in St. Louis. Black turnout will decide Clay’s exact margin of victory, but SurveyUSA shows Clay comfortably ahead, 56% to 35%. If the district’s African Americans vote in smaller numbers than SurveyUSA here models, Clay’s margin of victory will be smaller.

White Democratic primary voters go 3:1 for Carnahan, who was redistricted out of his existing seat in Congress. Black Democratic primary voters go 7:1 for Clay.

Carnahan leads 5:2 among Independents, who are permitted to vote in the primary, but that is not enough to overcome Clay’s 2:1 advantage among registered Democratcs. Carnahan leads among conservatives, but that is not enough to overcome Clay’s advantage among moderates and liberals. Clay leads among the less affluent and the more affluent. Clay leads among the more educated and the less educated. Clay leads among young and old.

Looking ahead to the general election in November, the winner of the 08/07/12 Democratic primary (be it Clay or Carnahan) defeats the winner of the 08/07/12 Republican Primary (be it Robyn Hamlin or Martin Baker) by 3:1. Democrats are certain to hold the House Seat.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research:┬áSurveyUSA interviewed 950 registered voters from the state of MO 08/02/12 through 08/04/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 490 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to request a Democratic ballot in the 08/07/12 Missouri primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of registered voters, 91% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a profesional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters, 9% of likely voters) were interviewed on their cell phone by trained interviewers, who hand-dialed the phone, read the questions to the respondents, recorded the respondents’ answer, and remained on the line until the call was complete.

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