With Ryan, Romney Still Trying to Strike Gold in Silver State; Republican Heller Ahead of Democrat Berkley in Tight Nevada Senate Fight:
In an election for President of the United States in vital Nevada, Barack Obama finishes today, 08/21/12, with a nominal 2-point advantage, 47% Obama, 45% Mitt Romney, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted bilingually for the Las Vegas Review Journal and KLAS-TV 8 News Now. Obama’s edge is within the survey’s possible sources of error and may or may not be significant. Early voting begins in 2 months. In 2008, Obama carried Nevada by 12 points. In 2012, six critical electoral votes are at stake.
* Obama has a single-digit advantage in Las Vegas and a double-digit advantage in the rest of Clark County. Romney leads in greater Reno and the rest of Nevada.
* Romney is backed by 81% of Republicans, 81% of conservatives, 84% of Tea Party members.
* Obama is backed by 82% of Democrats, 83% of liberals.
* Independents break 44% to 39% for Romney.
* Moderates break 57% to 34% for Obama.
* Romney leads among male Nevadans. Obama leads among female Nevadans. There is a 19-point Gender Gap.
* Obama leads among lower-income voters; Romney leads among upper-income voters; middle-income voters split.
* All interviews were conducted after Paul Ryan was named Mitt Romney’s running mate. Ryan attracts to the Romney ticket as many voters as he repels.
* 7 in 10 voters are familiar with Ryan’s thinking on Medicare. Of those familiar: 48% support the Ryan Medicare plan, 47% oppose the Ryan Medicare plan.
* 41% in Nevada have a favorable opinion of Obama, 39% have a favorable opinion of Romney, 35% have a favorable opinion of Ryan.
* 80% of Romney voters and 77% of Obama voters say they cast their vote enthusiastically.
In an election today for United States Senator from Nevada, appointed incumbent Republican Dean Heller, running for his first elected term, leads Democrat Shelley Berkley 44% to 39%.
* Heller has a Minus 3 Net Favorability – 32% view him favorably compared to 35% who view him unfavorably.
* Berkley has a Minus 14 Net Favorability – 29% view her favorably compared to 43% who view her unfavorably.
* There is a 20-point gender gap. Heller, a man, leads by 14 points among men. Berkley, a woman, leads by 6 points among women.
* Independents break for Heller; moderates break for Berkley.
* Heller and Berkley are tied in Las Vegas. Berkley leads in the rest of Clark County; Heller leads decisively in greater Reno and the rest of Nevada.
* 22% of Berkley voters say they cast their vote “with reservations,” compared to 18% of Heller voters.
* Voters who are familiar with a House Ethics Committee investigation of Berkley are 3:1 more likely to vote for Heller than they are to vote for Berkley.
* Of Romney voters, 87% vote for Heller. Of Obama voters, just 76% vote for Berkley.
Research conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish; cell-phone and home-phone respondents included: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Nevada 08/16/12 through 08/21/12. Of the adults, 985 were registered to vote in Nevada. Of the registered voters, 869 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election for President of the United States. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Telephone respondents in portions of Nevada with concentrations of Spanish speakers were offered the option to take the survey in their choice of Spanish or English. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. 80% of the interviews for this survey were completed before comments about rape and pregnancy took center stage in the presidential election.