Loading...

3 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, Hours Before 2nd Presidential Debate Begins, Early Voters Give Obama An Edge in Ohio

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/17/12 07:22 PM

In an election for President of the United States in Ohio today, 10/16/12, Barack Obama edges Mitt Romney 45% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Obama is flat at 45%, Romney is down 2 points, from 44% to 42%.

Obama’s entire advantage comes from those Ohioans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Among early voters, Obama leads 57% to 38%. Among Ohioans who are likely to vote, but who have not yet done so, the contest is tied, 43% to 43%. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 3 points reported here. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, women are stable, but Obama picks up a couple of points among men. The gender gap today is 13 points. Both Obama and Romney lost support among Independents week-on-week. Romney declined 3 points, from 44% to 41%. Obama declined 2 points, from 35% to 33%. Obama gained ground week-on-week among middle-income voters. In greater Columbus, the contest is absolutely unchanged: 47% to 41% Obama last week; 47% to 41% Obama this week.

In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeats Republican Josh Mandel 43% to 38%. Week-on-week, Brown is up 1 point, Mandel is flat. Brown leads by 14 points among Ohioans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, and by 2 points among likely voters who have not yet marked a ballot. Week-on-week, Mandel lost 2 points among voters under age 50, and gained 2 points among voters age 50+. In greater Columbus, Mandel lost 3 points week-on-week. In greater Cleveland, Mandel gained 3 points week-on-week.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 675 Ohio adults 10/12/12 through 10/15/12. Of the adults, 613 had either already returned a ballot or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Obama leads by 12 points among cell-phone respondents. Obama and Romney are tied, 46% to 46%, among landline respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 3 points reported here.

Copyright 2014 SurveyUSA®, Clifton NJ, all rights reserved. Terms & Conditions.