In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District today, 18 days until votes are counted, incumbent Republican John Kline leads DFL challenger Mike Obermueller 49% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Kline’s entire advantage comes from men. The contest is tied among women. Obermeuller ties Kline among voters age 50+, who are the most reliable voters. Kline leads among voters under age 50, who are sometimes less reliable voters. Independents break by 13 points for Kline. Moderates break by 7 points for Obermueller.
* Kline has a Plus 21 Net Favorability rating.
* Obermueller has a Plus 13 Net Favorability rating.
* By 43% to 33%, voters say Kline will do more to bring jobs to the district.
* By a narrow 40% to 38% margin, voters say Kline will do more to protect Medicare.
* By a narrow 37% to 35% margin, voters say Kline is stronger on education issues.
* President Obama carries the district 48% to 44% in an election today.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District 10/17/12 and 10/18/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 565 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, logged the respondent’s answers, and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the interview.