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In North Carolina, Romney Poised to Come From Behind To Drag 15 Electoral Votes From Blue Column to Red

SurveyUSA Operations - 10/31/12 07:04 PM

Early voters in North Carolina favor Barack Obama, who has a lead “banked” heading into the final week of campaigning, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV in Raleigh. But: Election-Day voters will go for Mitt Romney in sufficient numbers that it appears Romney will outperform Obama, 50% to 45%, when all votes are counted. Obama leads among those who have already voted, by mail or in person, but among voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Romney leads 2:1.

All of Romney’s advantage comes from men, where he leads by 9 points. The contest is tied among women. White voters 2:1 favor Romney. The contest is close because African Americans vote 10:1 for Obama. Romney leads narrowly in greater Charlotte and in southern and Coastal NC. Romney leads decisively in greater Greensboro. Romney leads among the educated and the less educated. Those who think there should be no legal recognition of same-sex marriage vote 3:1 for Romney. Those who think same-sex couples should be given all the legal rights of marriage vote 6:1 for Obama. Twice as many voters in NC say they are worse-off today than 4 years ago than say they are better-off. In contrast, voters say that 1 year from now, the North Carolina economy will be stronger than it is today.

In an election for Governor of North Carolina, Republican Pat McCrory defeats Democratic challenger Walter Dalton 53% to 36%. McCrory leads among young and old, male and female, rich and poor, the well-educated and the less-educated.

In an election for Lieutenant Governor today, Republican Dan Forest edges Democrat Linda Coleman 48% to 42%.
In an election for State Auditor today, Democrat Beth Wood and Republican Debra Goldman run effectively even, 44% for Wood, 42% for Goldman.
In an election for State Treasurer today, Democrat Janet Cowell edges Republican Steve Royal 47% to 42%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 North Carolina adults 10/26/12 through 10/29/12. Of the adults, 723 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 682 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so, on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home phone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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