Election Eve, Ohio: Obama in Strongest Position Yet To Capture Buckeye State’s 18 Critical Electoral Votes

SurveyUSA Operations - 11/05/12 12:15 PM

When all is said and done, and 24 hours remain until votes are counted in Ohio, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49% to 44%, according to SurveyUSA’s 5th and final pre-election tracking poll, conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. In 5 tracking polls, Obama has never trailed; today’s poll is the first time Obama has polled as high as 49%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Obama is up 1 point, Romney is down 1 point. Obama had led by 3, now leads, at the wire, by 5. Men are moving to Obama on the final weekend. 6 out of 7 Ohio voters has been personally contacted by one or both presidential campaigns.

As they have in all 5 SurveyUSA polls, voters say Romney would do better at balancing the federal budget.
As they have in all 5 SurveyUSA polls, voters say Obama would do better at keeping America safe.
As they have in all 5 SurveyUSA polls, voters say Obama is more in touch with the average working person.

In the election for United States Senator from Ohio, incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown narrowly edges Republican challenger Josh Mandel 44% to 41%, in a contest with national implications. Brown has never trailed in 5 tracking polls, but his lead has been as small as 1 point. Today’s lead of 3 points is down from last week’s lead of 5 points. The contest is slightly more volatile than is the President’s. Among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Brown has a 21-point lead “banked.” For Mandel to have a chance, he must overpower Brown with the larger group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election Day. Brown currently has a 10-point lead among Election Day voters. Brown has made steady inroads among Ohio’s Independent voters, and at the finish line, out polls Mandel among this group – though just bareley. Two weeks ago, Brown had led by 13 points among Independents, but on Election Eve, trails by 1.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 910 adults from the state of Ohio 11/01/12 through 11/04/12. Of the adults, 822 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 803 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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