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In NC GOP Primary, Tillis Leads 7 Challengers; Brannon and Grant Battle for 2nd Place; Eventual Winner Faces Kay Hagan in November

SurveyUSA Operations - 153 days ago

6 weeks till votes are counted in the North Carolina Republican Primary for United States Senator, Thom Tillis leads a field of 8 Republican hopefuls, 28% for Tillis to 15% for Greg Brannon to 11% for Heather Grant, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh. Tillis’ support is older, wealthier, better educated, and concentrated in greater Greensboro.

The top Republican needs to reach 40% in the GOP primary to avoid a 07/15/14 runoff. Today, 23% of likely Republican Primary voters are undecided. If these undecided voters are allocated to each of the 8 candidates, Tillis today ends up at 36% — short of the 40% threshold. In a runoff: would Tillis face Brannon, whose support is disproportionately lower-income and concentrated in Southern and Coastal Carolina? Or would Tillis face Grant, whose support is disproportionately young, less educated, and concentrated in greater Raleigh? Or, might Brannon face Grant? The next 6 weeks till tell us.

Today:

Tillis is viewed favorably by 34% of likely GOP Primary voters, unfavorably by 11% — a Plus 23.
Brannon is viewed favorably by 27%, unfavorably by 11% — a Plus 16.
Grant is viewed favorably by 20%, unfavorably by 9% — a Plus 11.
Ted Alexander is viewed favorably by 17%, unfavorably by 9% — a Plus 8. Alexander gets 7% in a primary today.
Mark Harris is viewed favorably by 23%, unfavorably by 9% — a Plus 14. Harris gets 6% of the vote in a primary today.
Alex Lee Bradshaw is viewed favorably by 15%, unfavorably by 8% — a Plus 7. Bradshaw gets 4% in a primary today.
Jim Snyder is viewed favorably by 16%, unfavorably by 8% — a Plus 8. Snyder gets 4% today.
Edward Kryn is viewed favorably by 13%, unfavorably by 9% — a Plus 4. Kryn gets 3% today.

Of those North Carolina adults who are familiar with the story of coal ash from Duke Energy spilling into the Dan River, 61% disapprove of the way the state responded to the spill, more than twice the 23% who approve of the state’s response.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 North Carolina adults 03/17/14 through 03/19/14. Of the adults, 1,885 were registered to vote in the state. Of the registered, 405 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/06/14 GOP Primary. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of GOP Primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of GOP Primary voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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