President George W. Bush; Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear; US Senators Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning. What do all four of these men have in common this month?

None of them has a positive approval rating in Kentucky.

It’s happened just once before, in November of 2007, when Ernie Fletcher was serving his final month as Kentucky’s governor — but in tracking dating back to May of 2005, this is only the second time where none of the four elected officials we track in Kentucky were in positive approval territory.

Remember, Net Job Approval is found by subtracting disapproval from approval. This month’s positions:

• President Bush:         Minus 34.
• Governor Beshear:   Minus 16.
• Sen. McConnell:        Even (46% approval, 46% disapproval).
• Sen. Bunning:            Minus 9.

Research conducted for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati.

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, elected in 2006, is now at his lowest-ever level of job approval.

Patrick today has a 41% approval rating and a 56% disapproval rating, combining to create a Minus 15 Net Job Approval.

One month ago, Patrick was at Minus 1; two months ago, at Plus 13. Just after taking office in January of 2007, he was at Plus 24.

Full results are here. Click the “1/T” to bring up the sixteen months of tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive.

The research was conducted exclusively for Boston’s WBZ-TV. For a full breakdown of the crosstabs, discussion of changes over time, and expert analysis of what’s behind Deval Patrick’s falling numbers, be sure to read the latest from WBZ’s political analyst, Jon Keller.

Pollster.com’s Charles Franklin, U Wisconsin, has posted the following graphic that helps visualize pollster error in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, graphed from smallest, at the bottom, to largest, at the top. Click the graphic to access the original source material from Pollster.com.

Additional SurveyUSA Pollster Report Cards have also been posted, here.

UPDATED 10:30 PM ET 04/23/08 to include bullseye graphic from Pollster.com.

10 competing opinion pollsters released data in the final 3 days before votes were counted in Tuesday’s Pensylvania Democratic Primary.

With 99.51% of the vote counted, Hillary Clinton has a 9.2 percentage point margin of victory. When those numbers are fed into SurveyUSA’s Pollster Report Card, the “most accurate” awards are spread evenly across a number of pollsters.

• Suffolk University is Most Accurate by 3 of 8 scientific measures.
• Quinnipiac University, Strategic Vision and ARG are Most Accurate by 2 of 8 scientific measures.
• Zogby is Most Accurate by 1 of 8 scientific measures.

(chart below is current as of 8:35 pm ET on 04/23/08, with PA Secretary of State reporting 99.51% of the vote counted. click the chart until legible)

A graphical depiction of pollster performance, created by Professor Charles Franklin of the University of Wisconsin, is available at the Pollster.com website, here, and enhanced below with added SurveyUSA annotation.

(click the graphic until it is legible)

Two hours until votes are counted in Pennsylvania, SurveyUSA has the results of a just-conducted nationwide poll that says 55% of Americans say Clinton should remain in the race, even if she should lose in Pennsylvania.

• Among Democrats, 59% say Clinton should remain in the race if she loses the Keystone State; 39% say she should drop out.
• Among Republicans, 49% say Clinton should remain in the race if she loses tonight; 48% say she should drop out.
• Among Independents, 54% say Clinton should remain in the race if she fails to win PA; 40% say she should drop out.

Other findings:

• 65% of Americans — including 78% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats — say Clinton and Obama should continue to run separate campaigns; 28% overall say they should join forces and create one ticket.
• If Clinton and Obama were to create a single ticket, 48% would prefer to see Clinton as the presidential candidate and Obama as the vice presidential; 40% would prefer the opposite setup, with Obama at the top of the ticket.

Who has run the better campaign for President?

• 34% say Barack Obama.
• 25% say Hillary Clinton.
• 38% say the two campaigns have been about equal.

Full results of the poll are here.

SurveyUSA research conducted April 11-13, while Iowa Governor Chet Culver was visiting Iowa National Guard troops in Kosovo, shows the governor’s approval rating has fallen to a new low.

Culver today has a 43% approval rating and a 50% disapproval rating, for a Net Job Approval of Minus 7, his lowest since taking office in January of 2007. Three months ago, in January of 2008, Culver was at his highest approval rating, a Plus 25. One month later, in February, Culver was at Minus 1, a 26-point drop.

Culver has seen recent opposition to proposals to increase vehicle licensing fees and the state gasoline tax,  over a ban on smoking in most public places, and over school curriculum and bottle deposit proposals.

Research conducted for KAAL-TV in Mason City.

California’s two United States Senators today are at or near their lowest approval ratings in nearly three years of monthly SurveyUSA tracking.

Dianne Feinstein today has a 48% approval rating and a 43% disapproval rating, for a Net Job Approval of Plus 5, her lowest since tracking began in May of 2005. Three months ago, Feinstein was at Plus 18. Her  previous low, a Plus 7, was reached twice in 2007, in both June and November. Her highest Net Job Approval was a Plus 26, in March of 2006; her Net Job Approval, determined by subtracting disapproval from approval, has never been negative.

Junior Senator Barbara Boxer today is at Plus 1, with a 46% approval and 45% disapproval rating. Like Feinstein, Boxer has seen a significant drop over the past two months; in February, she was at Plus 19, essentially tied with Feinstein. Boxer has been here before; her approval rating also dipped to Plus 1 in September of 2007 and January of this year, and she was even, with a 46% approval and disapproval rating, five months ago.

California context:  President Bush today has a Minus 45 Net Job Approval in the Golden State; Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was as high as Plus 13 four months ago, today is at Minus 13, with a 42% approval and 55% disapproval rating. Like the Democratic U.S. Senators, the Republican governor has also had a relatively bad two months; in February, he was at Minus 6.

Research conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

With 18 hours to go before Pennsylvanians start casting their votes, Hillary Clinton is six points ahead of Barack Obama in this, SurveyUSA’s fifth and final tracking poll conducted exclusively for our PA media clients KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh, WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, WHP-TV in Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Full results and analysis are here; some selected highlights on what has — and has not — changed follow:

More »

SurveyUSA’s first November general election poll conducted of likely voters shows John McCain losing to either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in Washington state, but by different margins.

Obama beats McCain by 13 points if the election were today, 53% to 40%.

Clinton beats McCain by 3 points today, 48% to 45%.

• Among men: Obama leads McCain by 7;  McCain leads Clinton by 7.
• Among women: Obama leads McCain by 19; Clinton leads McCain by 14.
• Among voters under age 50: Obama leads McCain by 20; Clinton leads McCain by 2.
• Among voters aged 50+: Obama leads McCain by 7; Clinton leads McCain by 4.
• Among white voters: Obama leads McCain by 9; Clinton leads McCain by 2.

Research conducted 4/14 through 4/16, exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland Oregon. Full results are here.

From October of 2006 through January of 2008, John McCain led Barack Obama each of the the seven times we asked registered voters in Virginia which of the two candidates they’d vote for if they were the two nominees for President of the United States. Obama took the lead in February, though, and has hung on since — until now. Today, it’s McCain back in the lead with 52%; Obama gets 44%.

Research conducted exclusively for WJLA-TV in Washington D.C. and WDBJ-TV in Roanoke; click the tracking graph above to see the full crosstabs.