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In FL Governor’s Duel, Democrat Crist Now In the Spotlight, Democrat Crist Now In The Lead – Newly Atop Republican Scott in Dramatic Swing

SurveyUSA Operations - 37 days ago

Charlie Crist made news last week when he named a running mate, and that appears to resonate with Florida’s likely voters, who now have Crist 6 points atop Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 40%, according to WFLA-TV’s latest tracking poll in the contest.

2 weeks ago, Crist trailed Scott by 2. As Crist has enjoyed nonstop media attention over the past 5 days, which happen to coincide with SurveyUSA’s field period for this survey, Crist’s poll numbers benefited as well. In 8 WFLA-TV / SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to 04/15/14, Crist has led on 5 occasions, though never by as much as the 6 points he does today. Scott has led in 3 of the 8 tracking polls, though never by more than 2 percentage points.

Among women, Crist had led by 3, now leads by 10, a gain of 7 points.
Among men, Crist had trailed by 7, now is tied, a gain of 7.
Among moderates, a key constituency for any Democrat who hopes to win elected office, Crist leads by 22 points, up from 13 points 2 weeks ago.
Among Independents, Scott and Crist are effectively tied, a 10 point improvement for Crist poll-on-poll.
The 08/26/14 FL Primary has not been held yet, and Crist has not yet won his party’s nomination.
After the primary, 2 months of intense campaigning remain before voting begins; these poll numbers can and will change during those 60 days.

Looking ahead to the 2016 election for president in the pivotal state of Florida, hypothetical head-to-head polling by SurveyUSA for WFLA-TV shows the following:

Hillary Clinton 49%.
Chris Christie 38%.

Chris Christie 48%.
Joe Biden 39%.

Hillary Clinton 46%.
Rand Paul 42%.

Rand Paul 47%.
Joe Biden 39%.

Hillary Clinton 53%.
Marco Rubio 39%.

Marco Rubio 46%.
Joe Biden 43%.

Hillary Clinton 47%.
Jeb Bush 41%.

Jeb Bush 47%.
Joe Biden 38%.

As always, cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 07/17/14 through 07/21/14. Of the adults, 839 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 564 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In FL, Steady As She Goes: Scott 2 Atop Crist for Gov; For POTUS in 2016, FL Stays Blue if Clinton Runs; FL Turns Red if Biden Runs

SurveyUSA Operations - 50 days ago

With July 4 in the rear-view mirror, Republican Rick Scott finds himself a nominal 2 points atop Democrat Charlie Crist in the contest for Florida Governor, according to the latest WFLA-TV tracking poll. Compared to an identical WFLA-TV poll released 06/24/14, Scott is up 3 points, Crist is up 2 points. Scott had led by a nominal 1 point, now 2, largely unchanged. Scott’s 45% today is the highest he has polled in 7 WFLA-TV track points.

Looking ahead to the 2016 election for president in the pivotal state of Florida, hypothetical head-to-head polling by SurveyUSA for WFLA-TV shows the following:

Hillary Clinton 46%.
Rand Paul 42%.

Rand Paul 47%.
Joe Biden 39%.

Hillary Clinton 53%.
Marco Rubio 39%.

Marco Rubio 46%.
Joe Biden 43%.

Hillary Clinton 47%.
Jeb Bush 41%.

Jeb Bush 47%.
Joe Biden 38%.

As always, cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/30/14 through 07/02/14. Of the adults, 849 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 558 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Kansas Political Rundown: Brownback Under Water; Schodorf In Kobach’s Rear-View Mirror; Roberts Ahead But Can’t Coast

SurveyUSA Operations - 64 days ago

6 weeks till votes are counted in the 08/05/14 Kansas Primary, no incumbent is threatened in contests for Governor, Senator and Secretary of State, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita. But strong general election challengers may make for an exciting Fall.

On the Republican Primary ballot:

For Governor, the incumbent ticket of Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer 3:2 defeats the challenger ticket of Jennifer Winn and Robin Lais.
For U.S. Senator, incumbent Pat Roberts defeats challenger Milton Wolf 2:1.
For Secretary of State, incumbent Kris Kobach defeats challenger Scott Morgan 2:1.

On the Democratic Primary ballot:

For U.S. Senator, Chad Taylor defeats Patrick Wiesner 41% to 16%, but a plurality of likely voters, 43%, remain undecided, making any outcome possible.

Looking ahead to the 11/04/14 General Election:

Brownback is fighting for his life. Democratic challengers Paul Davis and Jill Docking today lead the former U.S. Senator and current Governor, 47% to 41%. 1 in 4 registered Republicans today defects and votes for the Davis/Docking Democratic ticket. By contrast, Davis/Docking holds 89% of the Democratic base. Independents break Democratic by 19 points. Brownback’s weakness among men, where he leads Davis by a nominal 1 point, cannot overcome the Democratic ticket’s strength among women, where Davis/Docking leads by 14 points.

In the Governor contest, voters are focused on tax rates and education funding. Those who say tax rates are most important vote Republican, by 16 points. Those who say education funding is most important vote Democratic, by 54 points. Brownback has 5 months to consolidate his support.

In the contest for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Roberts, Roberts today defeats likely Democratic nominee Taylor 43% to 33%. Third-party candidates take 12% of the vote today, and another 12% are undecided. Roberts is above 50% in rural Western KS, but below 50% elsewhere. Roberts leads among men and women, and leads in every age group. But combined, Roberts’ 3 opponents have more support than he does.

In the Senate contest, voters are focused on the economy and health care. Those who say health care is most important back Roberts 3:1. Those who say that the economy is most important back Taylor 4:3.

In the Secretary of State contest, incumbent Republican Kris Kobach narrowly edges Jean Schodorf, 47% to 41%. Kobach appeals to conservatives, where he leads 9:1, but Schodorf has significant strength among moderates, where she leads by 38 points. Kobach holds 70% of the Republican base, but Schodorf holds 80% of the Democratic base. Independents in this contest break Democratic 4:3.

In the Secretary of State contest, voters are focused on immigration, where Kobach has a 41 point advantage.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 state of Kansas adults 06/19/14 through 06/23/14. Of the adults, 1931 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 508 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Republican Primary, 252 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Democratic Primary. 1,068 voters were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 General Election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a survey on their laptop, tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

In Florida, Scott and Crist Now Nose-to-Nose in WFLA-TV Tracking Poll

SurveyUSA Operations - 65 days ago

As summer begins, Florida’s even-steven race for Governor glows white hot, with this latest release of the WFLA-TV tracking poll showing incumbent Republican Rick Scott at 42%, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist at 41%. The research, conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV by SurveyUSA, is more favorable to Scott than data released 06/10/14, which showed Crist leading Scott by 4 points.

Some of the ground that Scott made up between 06/10/14 and today is among seniors, where Crist had recently drawn even with Scott, but today Crist falls to 13 points behind. Scott also makes up ground among the most educated voters, where 2 weeks ago Crist led by 11 and now leads by 3. Today’s release shows a 25-point Gender Gap: Scott leads by 13 points among men; Crist leads by 12 points among women. Cubans vote Republican. Non-Cuban Hispanics vote Democratic. Whites vote Republican. Blacks vote Democratic. Independents break 4:3 Republican. Moderates break 2:1 Democratic.

Looking ahead to the 2016 Presidential election, SurveyUSA wheels Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio against 2 possible Democratic nominees: Hillary Clinton today defeats Rubio by 14 points in a hypothetical match-up. Rubio today defeats Joe Biden by 3 points in a hypothetical match-up. Formidably: Clinton gets 60% of the female vote if she is the Democratic nominee. By contrast, Biden gets 47% of the female vote if he is the Democratic nominee.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/20/14 through 06/23/14. Of the adults, 834 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 541 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, and were asked the Crist-Scott questions. The 2016 hypotheticals were asked of all 834 registered voters. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

Absence Does Not Make the KS-04 Heart Grow Fonder — Pompeo With Early Lead on Tiahrt in GOP Primary Battle

SurveyUSA Operations - 70 days ago

6 weeks to the Republican Primary in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Mike Pompeo leads his newly announced primary challenger Todd Tiahrt, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.

Today it’s Pompeo 51%, Tiahrt 34%. Tiahrt held the seat in this district until he resigned to run for the US Senate in 2010. Pompeo seeks his 3rd term. Tiahrt wants his seat back. The district is heavily Republican. The winner of the 08/05/14 primary is likely to win the general election 11/04/14.

At this hour, Pompeo is well positioned to hold the seat. He runs particularly strong among conservatives, where he leads by 27 points. Tiahrt does much better among moderates, where he trails Pompeo by only 3 points, but alas, he still trails. Pompeo leads by 19 points among men, and by 14 points among women. Pompeo runs strong among seniors, where he leads by 22 points. Tiahrt keeps it closer in the younger age groups, but still trails there by 14 to 15 points. Tiahrt does comparatively well among lower-income likely Republican primary voters, where Tiahrt trails by 6. But Pompeo overwhelms among the more affluent, where he leads by 23 points.

Voters tell SurveyUSA that they are most focused on jobs in casting their vote. Among voters focused on jobs, Pompeo leads Tiahrt by 11 points. By comparison, among voters who say that immigration is the most important issue, Pompeo leads Tiahrt by 39 points.

Primary elections can be volatile, and these results may change as both candidates increasingly define themselves and their opponents as Primary Day approaches. On the other hand, Tiahrt is a known commodity in the district, and is not a typical unknown challenger running against a sitting incumbent.

Interviews, including cell-phone respondents, conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 registered voters from Kansas’ 4th Congressional District 06/16/14 through 06/18/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS), which is also known as Voter List Sample, purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. To qualify for inclusion, a household needed to have voted in at least one previous Congressional primary. Of the 950 registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 534 were likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (also known as: cell-phone respondents), were called on their cell phones, by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the completion of the interview. You must credit KSN-TV if you cite these results.

A Brand Map That Shows How SurveyUSA Is Positioned Compared to Other Market Research Firms

SurveyUSA Operations - 73 days ago

In CA-52, Incumbent Democrat Peters Swimming Upstream in Fight For 2nd Term; Republican Challenger DeMaio on Top

SurveyUSA Operations - 73 days ago

In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from California’s 52nd Congressional District today, 06/13/14, Republican challenger Scott DeMaio has a narrow advantage over 1st-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Union Tribune newspaper and KGTV-TV 10 News in San Diego.

DeMaio 51%, Peters 44%. That’s the headline at this hour, 6 months till votes are counted, pointing to a possible Republican takeaway of this congressional seat. DeMaio holds 82% of the Republican base, and gets 88% support from conservatives. Peters holds 85% of the Democratic base, holds 87% of the liberal vote, and edges DeMaio among moderates 54% to 43%. DeMaio leads by 17 points among men, trails by 2 points among women, a 19-point Gender Gap. DeMaio leads decisively among the less educated and less affluent voters. Peters draws even among the most educated and most affluent voters. Union voters break heavily for Peters, non-union voters break for DeMaio. Voters split when asked which of the 2 candidates is more trustworthy. 45% say DeMaio, 41% say Peters.

DeMaio and Peters emerge from a 06/03/14 “Top-2″ primary in which DeMaio finished behind Peters, in large part because DeMaio and other Republicans split the Republican vote. Today, those voters who backed Republican Kirk Jorgensen in the primary break 5:1 for DeMaio. Those voters who in 2012 backed Republican Brian Bilbray in CA-52, today back DeMaio 11:1. Those voters who in 2012 backed Democrat Peters, stick today with Peters 11:1.

The results of today’s poll are similar to a SurveyUSA poll released one year ago, 06/13/13, which showed DeMaio atop Peters 48% to 39%. That poll was of registered voters; today’s poll is of likely voters, so the two are not precisely apples-to-apples. Nevertheless, the broad themes remain consistent.

Research conducted 100% by telephone, using live operators to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 registered voters from California’s 52nd Congressional District using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: Voter List sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 554 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a landline (home) telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: cell-phone respondents) were interviewed on their cell phone by live operators who hand-dialed the cell phones, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent and remained on the line until the completion of the survey.

In MN, GOP Gov Primary is White Hot 2 Months Out; Winner Ready to Tear Into Incumbent Democrat Dayton; Franken Can’t Coast Either

SurveyUSA Operations - 73 days ago

2 months till votes are counted in the Republican Primary for Minnesota Governor, 4 candidates battle for the nomination, with the top 2 tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV. Today, Kurt Zellers and Jeff Johnson are even at 23%. They are followed by Marty Seifert at 14% and Scott Honour at 9%.

Regardless of which 1 of the 4 gets the nomination, DFL incumbent Mark Dayton may have a fight on his hands. The same is true of Al Franken in the US Senate contest … but let’s focus on the Governor’s race first.

In the Gubernatorial primary, Zellers narrowly outdraws Johnson among Republicans. Johnson narrowly outdraws Zellers among Independents. Conservatives break ever-so-slightly for Zellers; moderates break ever-so-slightly for Johnson. Johnson runs strong in Southern MN, Zellers runs strong in NE MN. The 2 split in the Twin Cities. Zellers’ support is younger. Johnson’s support is older. Johnson uniquely appeals to middle-income voters.

In hypothetical November match-ups that wheel the 4 Republicans against Dayton, Dayton leads in every case. But never with more than 47% of the vote. Today it’s:

Dayton 46%, Johnson 40%. Dayton by 6.
Dayton 46%, Zellers 39%. Dayton by 7.
Dayton 46%, Seifert 38%. Dayton by 8.
Dayton 47%, Honour 37%. Dayton by 10.

In the Republican Primary for US Senate, Mike McFadden is at 44%, Jim Abeler is at 16%. 40% choose some other candidate, or are undecided. The winner will face Franken 11/04/14.

In hypothetical November match-ups for US Senator, Franken like Dayton may have his hands full. Today it’s:

Franken 48%, McFadden 42%. Franken by 6.
Franken 48%, Abeler 39%. Franken by 9.

Independence Party candidate Kevin Terrell is a factor, at 4% to 6% of the vote … and 10% to 12% of the vote among Independents. Franken holds 90% of the DFL base against both McFadden and Abeler. But Abeler is less palatable to MN Independents.

68% of MN voters disapprove of a new $77 million building to provide new offices for the Minnesota Senate. 18% approve.

MN adults by 5:4 say that a light-rail system that will connect Minneapolis and St Paul is not worth the $957 million in taxes it cost to build. 51% say the transit connecting Minneapolis to St Paul is not worth the money; 40% say it is worth the cost. Of those who live in the counties the light rail serves, 6% say they will use transit regularly, 28% say they will use it occasionally, 65% they will almost never use light rail.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 state of Minnesota adults 06/05/14 through 06/09/14. Of the adults, 2,032 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 1,017 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, 404 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/12/14 primary election. Of the adults, 1,177 live in Greater Minneapolis and were asked how often they will ride light rail. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Oregon, 6 Months to Election Day, Incumbent Democrats Kitzhaber and Merkley Well Positioned for Re-Election

SurveyUSA Operations - 78 days ago

In an election for Governor of Oregon today, 06/10/14, six months till votes are counted, incumbent Democrat John Kitzhaber leads Republican challenger Dennis Richardson by 13 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland.

Today, it’s Kitzhaber 48%, Richardson 35%. Kitzhaber leads by 21 points in Greater Portland. Richardson ties Kitzhaber in the rest of the state. Kitzhaber is backed by women, among whom he leads by 20 points, and by the youngest voters, among whom he leads by 22. Kitzhaber holds 76% of the Democratic base, Richardson holds 78% of the Republican base. Independents break narrowly for the incumbent Democrat. Those with a high-school education vote for Richardson, but more educated voters back Kitzhaber.

Voters who tell SurveyUSA that the failure of Cover Oregon has a major impact on their vote back Richardson 3:1. Those who say the failure of Cover Oregon is not a factor in how they vote back Kitzhaber 11:1.

In an election today for United States Senator from Oregon, incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley leads Republican Monica Wehby, 50% to 32%. Wehby is backed by 71% of Republicans and 67% of conservatives. But Merkley is at or above 50% among women, voters age 50+, among Democrats, moderates and liberals, the less affluent and the most educated. Merkley leads by 26 points in Greater Portland. Wehby closes to with 3 points in the rest of Oregon, but still trails there 39% to 36%.

Three separate initiatives are on the ballot having to do with the recreational use of marijuana. SurveyUSA did not ask likely voters to differentiate among the 3 ballot measures, but did ask respondents whether they support or oppose allowing adults in Oregon to use, possess and grown marijuana for their personal use, while allowing the state to regulate and tax marijuana. 51% support making the personal use of marijuana legal, 41% oppose. There is no regional difference on this question. But there is an enormous age difference: young voters back the decriminalization of marijuana by 48 points. Seniors oppose legalization by 24 points. Democrats support. Republicans oppose.

Voters back Initiative 27, which would require that genetically engineered food be labeled. 51% back Initiative 27; 14% oppose. 35% are undecided, which means there is plenty of wiggle room in these numbers. That said, the measure is favored to pass.

More controversially, voters also back Initiative 10, the Oregon Castle-Doctrine Act, which would expand the laws permitting the defensive use of deadly force and eliminate liability in the case of a trespasser’s injury or death. 47% say Yes on 10, 14% say No. It’s still early going, and 38% are undecided, but at this hour, Democrats support Initiative 10 by 35% to 23%. Republicans support 12:1. Men support 10 by 45 points. Women support 10 by 20 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of Oregon adults 06/05/14 through 06/09/14. Of the adults, 810 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

Democrat Crist Back on Top in Florida See-Saw; Does It Have to Do With His Intention to Visit Cuba?

SurveyUSA Operations - 79 days ago

In an election for Governor of Florida today, 06/10/14, Democrat Charlie Crist is newly invigorated, according to the latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today it’s Crist 44%, Republican Rick Scott 40%. Compared to the most recent SurveyUSA poll, released 05/23/14, Crist is up 4 points, Scott is down 2 points. Then, Scott led by 2 points. Today, Crist leads by 4.

This SurveyUSA poll is the first since Crist announced that he may visit Cuba this summer. When likely November voters are asked whether a trip to Cuba makes it more or less likely that a voter would support that candidate, we find a “wash”:

12% say it makes them more likely to vote for a candidate who visits Cuba.
12% say it makes them less likely to vote for a candidate who visits Cuba.
73% say it makes no difference.

But, that apparent “wash” may mask underlying volatility. Among Cubans – and acknowledging that this is a small sample – Scott’s support has dropped to 27%, the lowest recorded in 5 SurveyUSA tracking polls. Crist is at 46% among Cubans, up from the most recent SurveyUSA poll, but consistent with where Crist was in April. In Southeast Florida (home to Miami and Fort Lauderdale), Scott’s support has dropped to 27%, a new low. Crist’s 25-point lead in Southeast FL is his largest in 5 tracking polls. Among the most educated voters, Scott’s support has dropped to 37%, the lowest it has been in 5 polls. Among the most affluent voters, Crist closes to within 3 points of Scott, 48% to 45%. This is the closest Crist has drawn to Scott in this typically Republican sub-population.

Consistent with the overall findings, those who say a Cuba trip makes them more likely to support a candidate back Crist 6:1. Those who say a Cuba trip makes them less likely to support a candidate back Scott by 3:1.

Switching gears: In a hypothetical election for President of the United States in Florida today, 06/10/14, 30 months till votes would be counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Jeb Bush 47% to 41%. Bush defeats Joe Biden 47% to 38%. Looking at how women vote tells a large part of the story. In a Clinton-Bush match-up, Clinton carries women by 15 points. In a Biden-Bush match-up, Bush carries women, though narrowly, 45% to 43%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/05/14 through 06/10/14. Of the adults, 850 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 556 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, and were asked the Crist-Scott questions. The 2016 hypotheticals were asked of all 850 registered voters. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

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