In SD Senate, Pressler and Weiland Continue to Split Anti-Rounds Vote, Possibly Paving Way for Rounds Election with Less than 40%
In the 3-way slug-fest that is the 2014 US Senate contest in South Dakota, Republican Mike Rounds today is backed by just 35% of voters, 4 weeks till votes are counted, but maybe, just maybe, that’s enough to get him elected and enough to help Republicans take control of the US Senate, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSFY-TV, KOTA-TV and the Aberdeen American.
The contest stands: Rounds 35%, Independent Larry Pressler 32%, Democrat Rick Weiland 28% and Independent Gordon Howie 3%. Weiland and Pressler continue to hurt each other’s chances and, however unintentionally, help Rounds win. When Weiland voters are asked what they would do if Weiland were not on the ballot, 71% say they would vote for Pressler, 9% say they would vote for Rounds. That means, if Weiland were not on the ballot, Pressler would defeat Rounds today 54% to 39%. When Pressler voters are asked what they would do if Pressler were not on the ballot, 52% say they would vote for Weiland, 31% say they would vote for Rounds. That means, if Pressler were not on the ballot today, Rounds and Weiland would tie, 47% to 47%.
Compared to a SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Rounds is down 4 points, Pressler is up 7 points, Weiland is flat. With both Pressler and Weiland on the ballot, Rounds is supported by just 55% of his Republican party base. Pressler is supported by 31% of Republicans, 44% of Independents and 28% of Democrats. Weiland is supported by 60% of Democrats, 20% of independents and 9% of Republicans. Rounds is backed by 56% of conservatives, 20% of moderates and 11% of liberals. Pressler is backed by 26% of conservatives, 39% of moderates and 31% of liberals. Among voters age 50 to 64, Pressler leads. Among voters age 65+, Rounds leads.
In the election for South Dakota’s representative to the US House, incumbent Republican Kristi Noem today defeats Democratic challenger Corinna Robinson 55% to 37%. A month ago, Noem led by 13 points, today by 18 points.
In the election for South Dakota’s Secretary of State, Republican Shantel Krebs today defeats Democrat Angelia Schultz 43% to 29%, with 3rd-party candidates siphoning 11% of the vote, and 18% of likely voters undecided on the contest.
On Constitutional Amendment Q, which would allow certain types of gambling in the city of Deadwood, Yes leads No 2:1.
Initiated Measure 18, which would increase the state minimum wage, passes 3:1 today. Initiated Measure 17, which would change how insurance companies display health-care providers, Yes leads No 42% to 8% … but half of South Dakota’s likeliest voters say they are not certain how they will vote on 17.
In the election for Governor of South Dakota, incumbent Republican Dennis Daugaard defeats Democrat Susan Wismer by 2:1 today, 59% to 30%. A third of Democrats cross-over and vote for the popular incumbent Republican.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 South Dakota adults 10/01/14 through 10/05/14. Of the adults, 657 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 616 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home (landline) telephone (91% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (9% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.