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In Oregon, 6 Months to Election Day, Incumbent Democrats Kitzhaber and Merkley Well Positioned for Re-Election

SurveyUSA Operations - 43 days ago

In an election for Governor of Oregon today, 06/10/14, six months till votes are counted, incumbent Democrat John Kitzhaber leads Republican challenger Dennis Richardson by 13 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland.

Today, it’s Kitzhaber 48%, Richardson 35%. Kitzhaber leads by 21 points in Greater Portland. Richardson ties Kitzhaber in the rest of the state. Kitzhaber is backed by women, among whom he leads by 20 points, and by the youngest voters, among whom he leads by 22. Kitzhaber holds 76% of the Democratic base, Richardson holds 78% of the Republican base. Independents break narrowly for the incumbent Democrat. Those with a high-school education vote for Richardson, but more educated voters back Kitzhaber.

Voters who tell SurveyUSA that the failure of Cover Oregon has a major impact on their vote back Richardson 3:1. Those who say the failure of Cover Oregon is not a factor in how they vote back Kitzhaber 11:1.

In an election today for United States Senator from Oregon, incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley leads Republican Monica Wehby, 50% to 32%. Wehby is backed by 71% of Republicans and 67% of conservatives. But Merkley is at or above 50% among women, voters age 50+, among Democrats, moderates and liberals, the less affluent and the most educated. Merkley leads by 26 points in Greater Portland. Wehby closes to with 3 points in the rest of Oregon, but still trails there 39% to 36%.

Three separate initiatives are on the ballot having to do with the recreational use of marijuana. SurveyUSA did not ask likely voters to differentiate among the 3 ballot measures, but did ask respondents whether they support or oppose allowing adults in Oregon to use, possess and grown marijuana for their personal use, while allowing the state to regulate and tax marijuana. 51% support making the personal use of marijuana legal, 41% oppose. There is no regional difference on this question. But there is an enormous age difference: young voters back the decriminalization of marijuana by 48 points. Seniors oppose legalization by 24 points. Democrats support. Republicans oppose.

Voters back Initiative 27, which would require that genetically engineered food be labeled. 51% back Initiative 27; 14% oppose. 35% are undecided, which means there is plenty of wiggle room in these numbers. That said, the measure is favored to pass.

More controversially, voters also back Initiative 10, the Oregon Castle-Doctrine Act, which would expand the laws permitting the defensive use of deadly force and eliminate liability in the case of a trespasser’s injury or death. 47% say Yes on 10, 14% say No. It’s still early going, and 38% are undecided, but at this hour, Democrats support Initiative 10 by 35% to 23%. Republicans support 12:1. Men support 10 by 45 points. Women support 10 by 20 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of Oregon adults 06/05/14 through 06/09/14. Of the adults, 810 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

Democrat Crist Back on Top in Florida See-Saw; Does It Have to Do With His Intention to Visit Cuba?

SurveyUSA Operations - 44 days ago

In an election for Governor of Florida today, 06/10/14, Democrat Charlie Crist is newly invigorated, according to the latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today it’s Crist 44%, Republican Rick Scott 40%. Compared to the most recent SurveyUSA poll, released 05/23/14, Crist is up 4 points, Scott is down 2 points. Then, Scott led by 2 points. Today, Crist leads by 4.

This SurveyUSA poll is the first since Crist announced that he may visit Cuba this summer. When likely November voters are asked whether a trip to Cuba makes it more or less likely that a voter would support that candidate, we find a “wash”:

12% say it makes them more likely to vote for a candidate who visits Cuba.
12% say it makes them less likely to vote for a candidate who visits Cuba.
73% say it makes no difference.

But, that apparent “wash” may mask underlying volatility. Among Cubans – and acknowledging that this is a small sample – Scott’s support has dropped to 27%, the lowest recorded in 5 SurveyUSA tracking polls. Crist is at 46% among Cubans, up from the most recent SurveyUSA poll, but consistent with where Crist was in April. In Southeast Florida (home to Miami and Fort Lauderdale), Scott’s support has dropped to 27%, a new low. Crist’s 25-point lead in Southeast FL is his largest in 5 tracking polls. Among the most educated voters, Scott’s support has dropped to 37%, the lowest it has been in 5 polls. Among the most affluent voters, Crist closes to within 3 points of Scott, 48% to 45%. This is the closest Crist has drawn to Scott in this typically Republican sub-population.

Consistent with the overall findings, those who say a Cuba trip makes them more likely to support a candidate back Crist 6:1. Those who say a Cuba trip makes them less likely to support a candidate back Scott by 3:1.

Switching gears: In a hypothetical election for President of the United States in Florida today, 06/10/14, 30 months till votes would be counted, Hillary Clinton defeats Jeb Bush 47% to 41%. Bush defeats Joe Biden 47% to 38%. Looking at how women vote tells a large part of the story. In a Clinton-Bush match-up, Clinton carries women by 15 points. In a Biden-Bush match-up, Bush carries women, though narrowly, 45% to 43%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/05/14 through 06/10/14. Of the adults, 850 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 556 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, and were asked the Crist-Scott questions. The 2016 hypotheticals were asked of all 850 registered voters. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

Kingston Atop Perdue in GOP Runoff for US Senate and Right to Face Nunn in November; Deal Maintains Lead Over Carter for Governor

SurveyUSA Operations - 48 days ago

6 weeks to the 07/22/14 Georgia Republican Primary, Jack Kingston is 11 points ahead of fellow Republican David Perdue in the battle for the Republican nomination, and the right to face Democrat Michelle Nunn in the 11/04/14 general election, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV, the Gannett owned station in Atlanta.

Today it’s Kingston 52%, Perdue 41%. Encouraging for Perdue is that among seniors, who are the most reliable voters, the contest is tied, 47% to 47%. Encouraging for Kingston is that he is above 50% among men, whites, independents, conservatives, middle and upper income voters, more educated voters, and in all 3 regions of Georgia. In greater Atlanta, Kingston leads by 10, in South Georgia and Eastern Georgia, Kingston leads by 18, and in Northwest Georgia, Kingston leads by 6.

In hypothetical head-to-head November match-ups against Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn, today, 5 months to election day, Kingston defeats Nunn by 6 points and Perdue defeats Nunn by 5 points. The race is for Republican Saxby Chambliss’ seat. Early though it is: the seat at this hour is a Republican “hold,” not a Democratic “takeaway.”

In an election today for Governor of Georgia, Republican Nathan Deal tops Democrat Jason Carter 44% to 38%. This 6-point lead is effectively unchanged from 2 previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, which on 04/28/14 showed Deal 4 points ahead of Carter, and on 04/13/14 showed Deal 6 points ahead of Carter. The 17-point Gender Gap continues to be striking: Deal leads by 13 points among men; Carter leads by 4 points among women. Republican Deal leads by 32 points among white voters. Carter leads by 53 points among black voters. As always in Georgia, the more women and the more African Americans who turn out, the better the Democratic candidate will do.

About: Cell-phone and home-phone respondents were included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 GA adults 06/03/14 through 06/05/14. Of the adults, 1,854 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 999 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, 419 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 07/22/14 Republican Runoff. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

No Geography Too Small

SurveyUSA Operations - 51 days ago

Coming Out Of The Symbolic ‘Start-of-Summer’ Memorial Day Weekend, FL Governor’s Teeter-Totter Tips Toward Republican Scott

SurveyUSA Operations - 58 days ago

 

Is it an early indicator of things to come? Or is it just statistical noise? For the first time, the WFLA-TV poll that is tracking the Florida Governor’s contest shows Republican Rick Scott in front — Scott at 42%, Democrat Charlie Crist at 40%, according to SurveyUSA data gathered as voters get ready for the Memorial Day weekend. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 10 days ago, Scott is up 1 point, Crist is down 4 points, a 5-point shift to the right.

 

Here is where there is movement: in Central Florida, which includes 19 counties surrounding Orlando, Scott has gained ground in each of 4 tracking polls and today leads there 47% to 34%. You can see it here. Among moderates, Crist had a 25-point advantage 10 days ago, now a 12-point advantage. You can see it here. Among males, Crist has been steadily losing ground, and now trails by 14 points; the Gender Gap is today 26 points. Crist’s support is down among whites, down among blacks. Among Cubans, Scott now leads 2:1.

 

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 05/20/14 through 05/22/14. Of the adults, 842 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 531 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on a home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

GOP Fresno Mayor Swearengin Certain to Advance in 3-Way Battle To Be CA State Controller, But Which Democrat Will Be Her Opponent?

SurveyUSA Operations - 64 days ago

Secretary of State candidates Alex Padilla and Pete Peterson will advance from the 06/03/14 California Primary to the 11/04/14 general election, the latest SurveyUSA poll finds. Democrat Padilla holds 78% of the Democratic base. Republican Peterson holds 79% of the Democratic base.

Republican Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin is certain to advance to the general election, but which 1 of 2 Democrats will oppose her in the battle for State Controller remains to be seen. Swearengin has 31% of the Primary vote today, compared to 24% for Betty Yee and 18% for John Perez. Swearengin is backed by older, more reliable voters, by whites, Republicans and conservatives. Yee is backed disproportionately by women; Perez is backed disproportionately by men. The 2 Democrats split the liberal vote. Top 2 finishers advance.

Democratic incumbent Jerry Brown is certain to advance from the gubernatorial Primary to the general election, but it not yet clear whether his titular opponent will be Republican Tim Donnelly or Republican Neel Kashkari. Brown is effectively unchallenged, with 57% of the Primary vote, and a shoo-in for re-election in the general election, but who will be sacrificial lamb opposite him on the general election ballot is unclear.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 state of CA adults 05/16/14 through 05/19/14. Of the adults, 871 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 610 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the 06/03/14 CA Primary, or were determined by SurveyUSA to be certain to vote before the deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Kentucky Voters, in a Foul Humor, Want to Throw Out Every Member of Congress and Start Over; But Should McConnell Be 1st To Go? Half Say Give Mitch Another 6 Years, Half Say Enough is Enough

SurveyUSA Operations - 67 days ago

Heading into the final weekend before the 05/20/14 Kentucky primary, incumbent GOP Senator Mitch McConnell soundly defeats more conservative Republican challenger Matt Bevin, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, The Lexington Herald Leader, and WKYT-TV. It’s McConnell 55%, Bevin 35%.

50% of Republicans say Matt Bevin is too inexperienced and would harm KY’s ability to get things from DC, compared to 38% who say that Matt Bevin is the fresh face needed to shake things up in Washington. 38% of Republicans say McConnell has been in office too long and it’s time for him to go, compared to 55% of Republicans who say that McConnell’s expertise and seniority are important for Kentucky to have in Washington DC. 51% of Republicans say McConnell has done too little to stop federal spending, 33% say he has done the right amount. 54% of Republicans say McConnell has done too little to stop the Affordable Care Act, 31% say he has done the right amount.

Assuming McConnell emerges triumphant from Tuesday’s primary, and looking ahead to the 11/04/14 general election, the forecast is cloudy for the Senate Minority Leader, who stands to become Majority Leader should he hold his seat and should Republicans capture control of the Upper Chamber.

Today, it’s even-steven, McConnell 42% vs 43% for his lesser known but well-financed Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes. These results are a nominal 3 points more favorable to McConnell than the most recent Bluegrass Poll, released 02/04/14. That poll was conducted of registered voters; this poll is of likely voters. Today, Grimes has built a narrow coalition of Democrats (74% support) and moderates (60%). The rest of her support is below 50% (women 45%, greater Louisville 48%). McConnell holds on because he is backed by conservatives (68%), Republicans (69%), and because where he trails, it is narrowly, and by single digits, such as among Independents, where McConnell is down 38% to 32%. 6-months till votes are counted, even in the face of these poll numbers, McConnell cannot be underestimated. The national Republican Party is not prepared to lose his seat; every last dollar will be spent to keep it.

Among all registered voters:

* Grimes has a Plus 14 Job Approval as KY Secretary of State: 46% approve of the job she’s doing, 32% disapprove.

* McConnell has a Minus 22 Job Approval as KY’s senior Senator: 34% approve of the job he’s doing, 56% disapprove.

* Grimes favorability is Plus 8 (35% view her favorably, 27% view her unfavorably).

* McConnell’s favorability is Minus 20 (29% favorable, 49% unfavorable).

* Bevin’s favorability is Minus 3 (22% favorable, 25% unfavorable).

* President Barack Obama’s favorability in KY is Minus 28 (29% favorable, 57% unfavorable).

69% of registered voters say the USA is off on the wrong track, compared to 21% who say the country is headed in the right direction. Frustration with Congress is so high that 62% of of registered voters say that if they had the chance, they would vote to throw out every member of Congress and start over. 27% oppose the idea.

KY is divided on a state constitutional amendment that would restore voting rights to convicted felons after they serve their sentences. 52% support a change; 34% oppose.

KY is opposed to using state funds to renovate an arena in Lexington. 75% say Lexington should find some other way to finance the project.

Looking ahead to 2016, in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, Kentucky voters were asked to choose between KY GOP Senator Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton. Paul carries KY today, 30 months out, 48% to 44%, largely on the basis of a 25-point Gender Gap. Men back Paul by 17 points. Women back Clinton by 8 points.

 

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research:SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 state of KY adults 05/14/14 through 05/16/14. Of the adults, 1,782 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 747 were Registered Republicans, and of them, 605 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 1,475 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In South Dakota, Rounds Atop Weiland for Open US Senate Seat; Minimum Wage Increase Backed Big; Republican Daugaard a Shoo-In for Re-Election as Governor; Voters Not Yet Focused on Measure 17

SurveyUSA Operations - 71 days ago

In an election today 05/12/14 for the open United States Senate seat in South Dakota, Republican Mike Rounds defeats Democrat Rick Weiland 44% to 30%, with former Republican Larry Pressler, running now as an Independent, at 17%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSFY-TV in Sioux Falls, KOTA-TV in Rapid City and the Aberdeen American News. There is much to examine in this survey that covers the South Dakota political landscape, but let’s focus first on the Senate Race.

6 months to Election Day, in a contest that could help determine whether Republicans take control of the US Senate in 2014, Rounds holds 72% of the Republican base, compared to Weiland, who holds 59% of the Democratic base. Pressler appears to hurt the Democrat Weiland, taking 17% of the Democratic vote, compared to taking 12% of the Republican vote. Pressler gets 31% of the independent vote. Rounds has a slight advantage among the remaining independents, 33% to 25%.

Rounds leads by 19 points among men and by 10 points among women. Rounds leads by 24 points among voters under age 50, and by 9 points among voters age 50+. An overwhelming number of South Dakotans say that either the economy or health care is the most important issue in their vote for Senate, and Rounds leads decisively among both those voters focused on the economy and those focused on health care. Upper income voters prefer Rounds 2:1. Weiland makes a comparatively stronger showing among lower-income voters, but still trails there 37% to 33%. White voters vote Republican. Native Americans vote Democratic.

Rounds is viewed favorably by 45% of likely voters, unfavorably by 35%, for a Plus 10 Net Favorability Rating. Rounds is viewed favorably by 65% of Republicans, unfavorably by 53% of Democrats.
Weiland is viewed favorably by 33% of likely voters, unfavorably by 19%, for a Plus 14 Net Favorability Rating. 51% of Democrats view Weiland favorably, but among Republicans, 36% are neutral on Weiland, compared to 28% who see him unfavorably.
Larry Pressler is viewed favorably by 29%, unfavorably by 27%, for a Plus 2 . Pressler is viewed favorably by 24% of conservatives, 33% of moderates and 37% of liberals. Pressler is viewed unfavorably by 31% of Republicans and 24% of Democrats and Independents.

In the contest for Governor, incumbent Republican Dennis Daugaard defeats Democrat Susan Wismer by 33 points and defeats Democrat Joe Lowe by 36 points, in hypothetical head-to-head matchups today. Independent Michael Myers gets 11% to 13% of the vote, depending on which Democrat is on the November ballot.

Daugaard is viewed favorably by 50% of likely voters, unfavorably by 19%, for a Plus 31 Net Favorability Rating, an unusually high number possible only with a broad coalition of support. For example: Republican Daugaard is viewed unfavorably by only 32% of Democrats.
Wismer is viewed favorably by 9%, unfavorably by 10%, for a Minus 1 . 81% of likely voters have a neutral opinion of Wismer, or have no opinion of her at all.
Joe Lowe is viewed favorably by 4%, unfavorably by 11%, for a Minus 7 . 86% of likely voters have a neutral opinion of Lowe, or no opinion of him at all.

Two thirds of South Dakota likely voters are not focused yet on Initiated Measure 17, which would require health insurers to include all willing and qualified health care providers on their provider lists. Of those who have made up their minds, 28% are certain to vote Yes on 17, 7% are certain to vote No on 17. Any outcome is possible, 6 months to the general election.

Voters are much more focused on Initiated Measure 18, which would increase the minimum wage in South Dakota from $7.25 to $8.50. Today, 61% vote Yes on 18, 19% vote No. Opposition to 18 is strongest among conservatives, Republicans and upper-income voters.

By 3:1, South Dakota voters support construction of a pipeline through South Dakota that would transport crude oil from Canada to the Gulf Coast. Opposition to a pipeline is strongest among Native Americans, Democrats and liberals.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 South Dakota adults 05/06/14 through 05/10/14. Of the adults, 649 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 504 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (91% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (9% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In the contest for United States Senator, incumbent Tim Johnson is retiring.

Steady as She Goes: In Florida, Democrat Crist Still Narrowly Atop Republican Scott in Bid to Capture Governor’s Mansion

SurveyUSA Operations - 72 days ago

6 months until votes are counted in Florida, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist maintains a slight advantage over incumbent Republican Rick Scott in the battle for Governor of Florida, according to SurveyUSA’s latest tracking poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today, it’s Crist 44%, Scott 41%, unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 2 weeks ago. See the interactive tracking graph, here. Of the last 18 public opinion polls conducted in Florida by any of the research organizations polling on the race, only 1 has shown Scott ahead.

Men and women actively are sorting their preferences out, and there is movement in the tracking graphs as they do so. Today: Scott leads by 12 points among men, Crist leads by 17 points among women, a 29-point Gender Gap. Cubans are today aligned with the Republican. Non-Cuban Hispanics are today aligned with the Democrat. Whites back Scott 46% to 40%, but that is not enough to keep Scott in Tallahassee. Moderates are behind Crist 55% to 30%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 950 state of Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/09/14 through 05/12/14. Of the adults, 853 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 554 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

One Week to GA GOP Senate Primary, Perdue Will Advance to Certain Runoff, But Will He Face Kingston, Handel or Gingrey? Carter Poised To Be Sec’y of State Nominee; Johnson Likely to Advance as Insurance Commish; Deal Atop Carter in November Governor’s Look-Ahead

SurveyUSA Operations - 72 days ago

7 days till votes are counted in the Georgia Primary, some contests snap into crisp focus, others remain blurry, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned NBC affiliate in Atlanta.

In the Republican Primary for U.S. Senator, David Perdue leads with 27%, and has led in every SurveyUSA tracking poll to date. Perdue is almost certain not to receive the 50% of the vote needed to avoid a 07/22/14 runoff, so who finishes second in the 05/20/14 primary is critical: Jack Kingston is at 19% among all likely voters, down a nominal 1 point from 2 weeks ago. Karen Handel is at 16% today among all likely voters, up a nominal 1 percentage point. When you examine just the small subset of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (aka: the Early Voters, which is sometimes a measure of voter enthusiasm, campaign organization, or both), Phil Gingrey has the most energized base, with 19% of the votes already cast going to him, almost twice his overall forecast vote total of 10%. Handel has only 11% of the votes already cast; her voters appear more willing to wait and vote on Primary Day. Perdue has 28% of the votes already cast, Kingston has 19%. Which of these 4 candidates advances will depend on a mixture of enthusiasm, organization and turnout. The U.S. Senate Seat is open; Saxby Chambliss is retiring.

In the Republican Primary for Governor, Nathan Deal overwhelms 2 nominal challengers and advances to face Jason Carter in the November general election.

In the Republican Primary for School Superintendent, months of campaigning have done little to differentiate 8 of the 9 candidates in voters’ minds. Only Ashley Bell today makes it into double digits, heading into the final week. All others are bunched between 5% and 9%. 38% of the likeliest voters remain undecided, as the campaign draws to a close. A runoff is certain. The sitting Superintendent, John Barge, is running for Governor.

In the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator, Michelle Nunn decisively defeats 3 opponents. Nunn has 59% today. Her opponents, combined, have 22%. Nunn will face in November the winner of the Republican Senate Runoff on 07/22/14.

In the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, Doreen Carter defeats Gerald Beckum today, 48% to 20%, largely unchanged from 2 weeks ago. The winner faces incumbent Republican Brian Kemp.

In the Democratic Primary for Insurance Commissioner, Liz Johnson defeats Keith Heard 43% to 26%. Wrinkle: compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, both candidates are down; neither has momentum. Johnson has fallen by 5 points, from 48% to 43%. Heard has fallen by 2 points, from 28% to 26%. Undecideds are up. Who chooses a candidate in this contest, as opposed to skipping over this contest and leaving the ballot blank, will determine the winner. Johnson has to be considered the favorite, even if she limps to the finish line. The winner faces incumbent Republican Ralph Hudgens.

In the Democratic Primary for State School Superintendent, Alisha Thomas Morgan has 20% today, up a nominal 1 point, followed by Valarie Wilson at 17%, Denise Freeman at 13% and Jurita Mays at 10%. A runoff is certain, with Thomas Morgan most likely to be 1 of the 2 who advances.

6 months until the November General Election, a look at the Gubernatorial head-to-head shows Republican Nathan Deal 6 points atop Democrat Jason Carter, 43% to 37%. Libertarian Andrew Hunt today takes 7% of the vote. Carter leads by 11 points in Greater Atlanta; Deal leads by 16 points in Northwest Georgia and by 14 points in Southern and Eastern GA. Deal leads 5:2 among GA whites; Carter leads 5:1 among GA blacks. 82% of Republicans stay with Deal; 80% of Democrats stay with Carter. Independents break 3:2 Republican. Moderates break 5:3 Democrat.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 state of GA adults 05/08/14 through 05/12/14. Of the adults, 1,738 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 634 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 549 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Democratic Primary. 1,380 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. As with all SurveyUSA election tracking polls, click on the “Triangle T” where ever you see one, to reveal the Interactive Tracking Graphs for that contest.

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