In an election for President of the United States today, Democrat Barack Obama holds Washington State’s 12 Electoral College Votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll for KING-TV Seattle. In head-to-head hypothetical elections today, it is:

* Barack Obama 49%
* Mitt Romney 41%
* Democratic Margin of Victory: 8 points.

* Barack Obama 56%
* Newt Gingrich 37%
* Democratic Margin of Victory: 19 points

* In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain in Washington State by 17 points.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 Washington state adults 11/21/11 through 11/23/11. Of them, 613 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 549 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November 2012 presidential election. This research was conducted multimode. Respondents who use a home telephone (83% of likely voters), were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (17% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. Obama leads Romney by 6 points among home-phone respondents, but leads by 16 points among cell-phone respondents (a 10-point difference). When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads Romney by 8.

11 months till ballots are mailed in the election for President of the United States, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama is poised to hold Oregon’s 7 electoral votes, according to a poll for KATU-2 TV news in Portland.
Today, in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups between the two Republican front-runners, it’s:

* Obama 48%
* Romney 40%

* Obama 51%
* Gingrich 37%

* If Romney is the candidate, Obama leads among men by 5 points. If Gingrich is the candidate, Obama leads among men by 12 points.
* If Romney is the candidate, independents split. If Gingrich is the candidate, Independents break for Obama.

* Romney has a Minus 20 favorability rating: 21% see him favorably, 41% see him unfavorably.
* Gingrich has a Minus 30 favorability rating: 20% see him favorably, 50% see him unfavorably.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 600 state of Oregon adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/18/11 through 11/21/11. Of the adults, 528 were registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions. This research was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home telephone (69% of adults, 70% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (31% of adults, 30% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet, or other electronic device. In this survey, cell-phone and home-phone respondents vote similarly. Obama leads Romney by 10 points among home-phone respondents and by 5 points among cell-phone respondents. Obama leads Gingrich by 13 points among home-phone respondents and by 15 points among cell-phone respondents.

Sure, it’s early, and yes, a lot will change, but in an preview of the 2012 Presidential election, cell phone voters (those without a home telephone, typically undercounted in opinion polls), vote sufficiently Democrat to keep Mitt Romney to just a single-digit lead over Barack Obama, and, for the moment, cause Obama to defeat Newt Gingrich.

Kansas’ 6 electoral votes will almost certainly stay in the Republican column (John McCain carried the state by 15 points in 2008), but in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups between the two Republican front-runners today, 11/22/11, it’s:

* Romney 48%.
* Obama 39%.

* Obama 45%.
* Gingrich 40%

* Among respondents who use a home phone, Romney leads Obama by 14. But among respondents who do not use a home phone (the cell-phone respondents), Obama leads Romney by 4, an 18-point difference.

* Among respondents who use a home phone, Gingrich leads Obama by 3 points. But among respondents who do not use a home phone, Obama leads Gingrich by 24 points, a 27-point difference.

* Romney has a Minus 9 favorability rating: 25% see him favorably, 34% see him unfavorably.
* Gingrich has a Minus 22 favorability rating: 25% see him favorably, 45% see him unfavorably.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 600 state of Kansas adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/18/11 through 11/21/11. Of the adults, 510 were registered to vote and were asked the substantive questions. This research was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home telephone (70% of adults, 73% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (30% of adults, 27% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet, or other electronic device. In this survey, cell-phone and home-phone respondents vote similarly.

A new SurveyUSA poll of the state of California shows 4:3 support for a drive to recall all 12 members of the Super Committee of the US Congress, following that Committee’s failure to reach any agreement on how to balance the federal budget. Support for a “throw-the-bums-out” recall of the 6 Democrats and 6 Republicans who sat on the Super Committee extends across party lines; a plurality of Democrats, Republicans and Independents favor recall.

When asked to give a grade to the work of the Super Committee, respondents give the group an ‘F’, 0.8 score on a 4-point scale, the lowest score ever recorded by SurveyUSA on any topic in 20 years of opinion polling. 53% of respondents, including 69% of Independents, give the group an F grade.

Californians by 15:1 disapprove of the job Congress is doing. 6% approve; 87% disapprove.

SurveyUSA asked voters in two blue states and one red state whether their opinion of Vice President Joe Biden was favorable or unfavorable. Then, SurveyUSA asked the same voters whether their opinion of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favorable or unfavorable? Biden has a negative favorability in both red and blue states. Clinton has a dramatically positive favorability in both red and blue states.

• In California, Clinton is seen 38 points more favorably than Biden.
• In Oregon, Clinton is seen 30 points more favorably than Biden.
• In Kansas, Clinton is seen 35 points more favorably than Biden.
• On average, Clinton is seen 34 points more favorably than Biden in these states.

SurveyUSA analyzes the extent to which 33 active public opinion pollsters work to include cell-phone respondents, and proactively disclose in real-time how many cell respondents they have interviewed, and the degree to which those cell respondents differ from landline (home-phone) respondents. If, as research by Marist College , the Pew Research Center, and SurveyUSA finds, there is a difference in how cell respondents and home-phone respondents think and vote, it is vital to include them in research. If cell respondents think and act the same as home-phone respondents, there is no need to make the special effort, and incur the added cost, required to reach them.

To see SurveyUSA’s forecast of how many Americans will not have a home telephone by Election Day 2012 (and will therefore be unreachable by the pollsters above who make no effort to include cell respondents), go here. Two-thirds of Americans age 25 to 29 will be unreachable on a home phone by Election Day 2012, SurveyUSA estimates. Half of those age 18 to 24 and half of those age 30 to 34 will be unreachable on a home phone by Election Day 2012, SurveyUSA estimates.

Pollsters who gather 100% of their data online, such as Zogby, Harris, Reuters, and Polimetrix are excluded from the chart above, but that does not mean that such pollsters exclude cell-phone respondents.

Report any errors or omissions in the table above to: editor@surveyusa.com

The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion is the only other pollster, besides SurveyUSA, to include routinely in its poll releases, the difference between cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents. This permits an analysis of how SurveyUSA and Marist polls compare to the many polls still being released, by other research companies, with no cell-phone respondents.

• In nationwide polls of registered voters released simultaneously this week, Marist found a 16-point difference in how cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents see Barack Obama, SurveyUSA found a 25-point difference.
• There is a limited difference, of 5 points, in how cell and home respondents view Mitt Romney in SurveyUSA polling.
• But there is a 23-point difference in how cell and home respondents view Newt Gingrich, in SurveyUSA polling.
• Polls of landline (home-phone) respondents only, will overstate Gingrich support, will understate Obama support.

Complete SurveyUSA results here. Complete Marist College results here.

Polls that exclude cell-phone respondents, such as those conducted by many SurveyUSA competitors, risk mis-characterizing public opinion. SurveyUSA estimates that by Election 2012, half of voters age 25 to 34, and one-third of voters age 35 to 44, will not be reachable on a home-phone. Make certain the polls you commission, and the competing polls you analyze, properly account for cell-phone respondents. No research firm has done more work studying cell-phone respondents at the state and local level than has SurveyUSA, America’s Pollster®.

In a nationwide election for President today, 11/16/11, incumbent Democrat Barack Obama narrowly edges Republican challenger Mitt Romney, 46% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll  of 1,000 registered voters. If the survey only includes landline (home-phone) respondents, Romney wins.Among respondents who use a home telephone (72% of registered voters), Romney leads by 6 points.

Among respondents who do not use a home telephone (28% of registered voters), and who were contacted by SurveyUSA on their cell phone or other electronic device, Obama leads by 22 points. When the two populations are proportionally blended, Obama is up by 2 points, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.

When Obama is paired head-to-head against Newt Gingrich, Obama is up by 11 points, 51% to 40%. Gingrich trails Obama only by 2 points among respondents who use a home telephone, but trails by 35 points among respondents who do not use a home telephone. When the two populations are proportionally blended, Obama is up by 11.

Independents significantly affect outcome: When Obama is paired against Romney, independent voters split 43% to 43%. When Obama is paired against Gingrich, independent voters break 5:3 Democrat.

Immediately after New York City police cleared Occupy Wall Street protestors from Zuccotti Park, SurveyUSA asked residents of the 5 boroughs their reaction, in an exclusive Eyewitness News Poll conducted for WABC-TV. Complete poll results and crosstabs here.

• 47% agree with the decision to remove the protestors; 49% disagree.
• 43% say protestors should be allowed to return, but without tents.
• 39% say protestors should be allowed to return, with tents.
• 17% say protestors should not be allowed to return.
• 49% disapprove of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg has done dealing with the protestors.
• 47% disapprove of the way Police Commissioner Ray Kelly has dealt with the protestors.
• 38% say the Occupy movement will result in long-term change; 36% say it won’t.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 625 NYC adults on 11/15/11, as news, photos and videos of the overnight eviction were first being made public. Of the adults interviewed, 519 (83%) were following the news from Zuccotti park and were asked the substantive questions. This research was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home phone (87% of adults) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded-voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (13% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device. Reactions to fast-moving news events can and do change over time, as more facts become known.

Cell-phone respondents are significantly more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for President than are home-phone respondents, SurveyUSA research continues to show.

• In a survey of Minnesotans conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis St Paul, SurveyUSA found a 22-point difference, on average, between how home-phone and cell-phone respondents look at the issue. n=543 registered voters, 21% are cell-phone respondents. Poll released 11/08/11. Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tie in Minnesota if only home-phone respondents are included in the research. But when cell-phone respondents are blended into the respondent population, Obama leads by 6 points.

Polls that exclude cell-phone respondents, such as those conducted by many SurveyUSA competitors, risk mis-characterizing public opinion. SurveyUSA estimates that by Election 2012, half of voters age 25 to 34, and one-third of voters age 35 to 44, will not be reachable on a home-phone. Make certain the polls you commission, and the competing polls you analyze, properly account for cell-phone respondents. No research firm has done more work studying cell-phone respondents at the state and local level than has SurveyUSA, America’s Pollster®.