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At the Wire, Republican Birds Come Home to Roost; McConnell Well-Positioned to be Sworn-In As Senate Majority Leader in Next Congress

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 125 days ago

After giving careful consideration to Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes throughout the spring and summer of 2014, and after weighing the pros and cons of punishing GOP icon Mitch McConnell, Kentucky’s voters in the campaign’s final week rally to the 5-term incumbent, and leave him, 96-hours till the campaign ends, well-positioned for re-election to a 6th term, and uniquely well-positioned to be majority leader when Republicans seize from Democrats control of the US Senate on 11/04/14.

Today, in the final Bluegrass Poll conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV, it’s McConnell 48%, Grimes 43%. McConnell’s showing is his strongest in 4 Bluegrass Polls going back to 08/28/14.

86% of Republicans today vote Republican. The base solidifies. In 3 previous Bluegrass Polls the number never got above 79%. The number of Republicans who today “cross-over” and vote Democratic, is 8%, the lowest it has been. Conversely, 3 times as many Democrats today tell SurveyUSA they will break ranks and vote for Mitch. These are voters Grimes desperately courted, voters Grimes desperately needed to win.

McConnell ends the campaign backed by 55% of voters in Western KY, 53% of voters in Eastern KY, 45% of voters in NC KY, and 41% of voters in greater Louisville. McConnell is above 50% among the least educated and the most affluent.

McConnell ends with a Net Favorability Rating of Minus 7. 37% of voters see him favorably, 44% of voters see him unfavorably. Of greater significance, over the course of the campaign, McConnell ad dollars succeeded in pushing Grimes under water. She ends the campaign with a Minus 6 Net Favorability Rating: 37% see her favorably compared with 43% who see her unfavorably — almost identical to Mcconnell, and the lowest Net Favorability she has ever demonstrated. President Obama, whose shadow hangs over this and other Senate elections in 2014, ends with a Minus 28 Net Favorability Rating: 27% see him favorably compared to 55% who see him unfavorably.

* 64% of voters agree with the statement: “I know where McConnell stands on the issues.”
* 60% of voters agree with the statement: “I know where Grimes stands on the issues.”
* 68% of voters agree with the statement: “I am satisfied with my choices for US Senate.”

* 53% of voters say McConnell should answer questions put to him about climate change.
* 39% of voters say Grimes should disclose whether she voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents are included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of KY adults 10/25/14 through 10/29/14. Of the adults, 704 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 597 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 General Election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Oregon, Kitzhaber Still Wins; Cylvia Hayes ‘Defectors’ Do Not Change Outcome Materially in Campaign’s Final Week

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 125 days ago

One week till counting begins in Oregon’s all-mail election, incumbent Democrat John Kitzhaber appears to survive the whiff of a scandal, and remains almost certain to be elected to a 4th term as Governor, according to KATU-TV’s final pre-election tracking poll in the contest.

Today, it’s Kitzhaber 50%, Republican challenger Dennis Richardson 40%. In 4 SurveyUSA tracking going back to 06/10/14, Kitzhaber has led by 13 points, 12 points, 12 points, 13 points, and today by 10 points. Among Independent voters, there is late movement to Richardson.

In an election today for United States Senator from Oregon, incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley is comfortably reelected, 53% to 32%, defeating Republican challenger Monica Wehby.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/23/14 through 10/27/14. Of the adults, 624 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 11/04/14 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In South Dakota, Pressler Fades; Weiland a Solid 2nd Place; Rounds Out Front, Positioned Now for Election to US Senate; GOP Take-Away

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 126 days ago

In the battle for the open US Senate seat in South Dakota, former Republican Governor Mike Rounds is now well positioned to be elected, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-election tracking poll for KSFY-TV, KOTA-TV and the Aberdeen American.

The situation has changed materially since SurveyUSA’s penultimate poll, 3-weeks ago, when both the Democrat, Rick Weiland, and the Independent, Larry Pressler, had a chance to upset Rounds, who was an early favorite. But today, thanks to national Republican ad dollars that poured into the state, the contest stands: Rounds 43%, Weiland 32%, Pressler 19%. Democratic Senator Tim Johnson is retiring. The seat is a likely GOP pick-up.

Barring something dramatic and unforeseen in the campaign’s final hours, Rounds will win among men and women, and the young and old. He has 69% Republican support and 72% conservative support, but in a 3-way contest, that is enough to win.

In the election for Governor of South Dakota, incumbent Republican Dennis Daugaard defeats Democrat Susan Wismer 54% to 34%. Daugaard leads 2:1 among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot.

In the contest for South Dakota’s representative to the US House of Representatives, incumbent Republican Kristi Noem today defeats Democratic challenger Corinna Robinson, 55% to 39%. In 2 previous SurveyUSA polls, Noem led by 13 points and 18 points. Today Noem leads by 16 points.

In the election for South Dakota’s Secretary of State, Republican Shantel Krebs today defeats Democrat Angelia Schultz 46% to 29%, with 3rd-party candidates siphoning 7% of the vote.

On Constitutional Amendment Q, which would allow certain types of gambling in the city of Deadwood, Yes leads No by 23 points, 52% to 29%.

Initiated Measure 18, which would increase the state minimum wage, passes 2:1 today.

On Initiated Measure 17, which would change how insurance companies display health-care providers, Yes leads No 2:1.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of SD adults 10/21/14 through 10/26/14. Of the adults, 671 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 611 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to return a ballot before the 11/04/14 General Election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home-telephone (86% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (14% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Toto, I’ve a Feeling We’re Not in Kansas Anymore: 3 Top-of-Ticket GOP Incumbents In Fight For Their Lives, 8 Days Till Votes Are Counted

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 127 days ago

15 separate public opinion polling firms are attempting to make sense of what is happening in Kansas in 2014, and no 2 of those polling firms agree. Here is how SurveyUSA sees Kansas, in our final pre-election tracking poll for KSN-TV in Wichita.

In the race for United States Senator, independent challenger Greg Orman 44%, incumbent Republican Pat Roberts 42%
In the race for Governor of Kansas, Democrat Paul Davis 46%, incumbent Republican Sam Brownback 43%.

Because the Senate race has national implications, we’ll examine that first. Either candidate may win. A narrow victory for Orman or a narrow victory for Roberts would be consistent with these findings. 10% of voters (including 21% of younger voters) remain undecided. A lopsided win for either candidate is not anticipated, barring some extraordinary event in the final 7 days of the campaign. Since the courts ruled that Democrat Chad Taylor’s name could be removed from the ballot, SurveyUSA has polled the Senate contest twice. 3 weeks ago, Orman led by 5 points, today by 2 points.

Roberts holds 67% of the Republican base. 23% of Republicans break ranks and vote for the independent Orman. Orman gets 74% of the Democratic vote and 48% of the Independent vote. Orman is backed by 60% of moderates and 84% of Kansas’ few liberals. Roberts holds 79% of the conservative base. To win, Roberts will need to do better than 67% among Republicans and better than 79% among conservatives.

Voters say that jobs are the most important issue in the US Senate contest, and on jobs, Orman leads Roberts by 25 points. Among voters who are focused on health care, Roberts leads Orman 2:1. And among voters who are focused on immigration, Roberts leads Orman by more than 2:1. In greater Wichita, Roberts leads by 4 points. In greater Topeka, Roberts leads by 6 points. But in greater Kansas City KS, Orman leads by 14 points. To win, Roberts must out-perform these numbers in the rural parts of the state.

In the Governor’s race, either candidate may win. A narrow victory for the Democratic ticket of Davis and Jill Docking or a narrow victory for the Republican ticket of Brownback and Jeff Colyer would be consistent with these findings. A lopsided win for either candidate is not anticipated, barring some extraordinary event in the final 7 days of the campaign. Since the Republican Primary, SurveyUSA has polled Kansas 4 times. Brownback has never led. He trailed by 8 points in August, by 7 points in September, by 5 points three weeks ago, and by 3 points today. Can Brownback catch Davis by Election Day? Possibly.

But among the Republican base, Brownback has never had more than 70% support, and finishes today at 67%. One in four Republicans cross-over and vote Democratic. Among Democrats, 84% back Davis-Docking, just 9% cross-over. Independents break 4:3 Democrat, and it is here that Brownback’s team can see movement, and have hope. 3 weeks ago, Brownback trailed by 27 among Independents, today by just 7.

Among men, where Republican candidates typically lead by a handful and strong Republicans lead in double digits, Brownback is even, 44% to 44%. Among women, where Democrats often run stronger than do Republicans, Davis-Docking lead by 5 points, 47% to 42%. Importantly: Davis at one point led among women by 15, then by 12, then by 11, today by 5. Momentum is on Brownback’s side. But: 14% of poll respondents tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among this group, Brownback trails by 19 points. To win, he most overcome these “banked” votes, and win decisively among late-voters and Election Day voters.

 

In the contest for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Kris Kobach is in the fight of his life. 8 days until votes are counted, it’s Kobach 45%, Democratic challenger Jean Schodorf 45%. If both Roberts and Brownback win on Election Day, Kobach will be re-elected. His constituency is the same as the top-ticket Republicans. If Orman and Davis unseat the high-profile Republicans, Schodorf may take the seat from Kobach, as part of an across-the-board sweep. All 3 regions of the state are tightly contested: Kobach leads by 5 in greater Wichita, and leads by 2 in greater Topeka. Schodorf leads by 6 in greater Kansas City KS. Immigration is now seen as the most important issue in the SOS contest, and on that issue, Kobach leads by more than 2:1. On the issue of voter registration, the candidates split. And on the issue of campaign finance reform, Schodorf is favored by 43 points.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 10/22/14 through 10/26/14. Of the adults, 680 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 623 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before the 11/04/14 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device. You must credit KSN-TV if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or part.

In Georgia, Week-On-Week, Republican Perdue Surges to Re-Take Key Senate Lead Away from Democrat Nunn

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 128 days ago

Compared to a WXIA-TV pre-election tracking poll one week ago, Democrat Michelle Nunn is upside down. One week ago, Nunn led Republican David Perdue by 2 points, 46% to 44%. Today, in a dramatic reversal, Perdue is on top, 48% to 45%, a 5-point right turn in one of the nation’s most high-visibility contests. Polling for Atlanta’s WXIA-TV 11Alive was conducted by SurveyUSA.

Where in the Senate race is there movement poll-on-poll? Among women, where Perdue had trailed by 13 points and now trails by just 2. And among core Republicans, where Perdue’s 84-point advantage is the largest it has been in 7 WXIA-TV tracking polls going back to 08/18/14. There is movement to Perdue among seniors, where he now leads by 25 points. Worse for Nunn: among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Perdue leads by 10 points.

In the election for Governor of Georgia, by contrast, there is no poll-on-poll movement. One week ago, incumbent Republican Governor Nathan Deal led by 2 points. Today, he still leads by 2 points. Today, Democratic challenger Jason Carter gets 44%, Perdue gets 46%. Among those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have returned a ballot, Deal leads by 9 points. Runoff-maker Andrew Hunt’s support is down to 3% today, the lowest he has been in 7 tracking polls. The further Hunt’s support drops, the less likely there will need to be a runoff.

* In an election today for the open seat of School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods edges Democratic challenger Valarie Wilson, 48% to 43%.
* In an election today for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens edges Democrat Greg Hecht, 48% to 43%.
* In an election today for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democrat Connie Stokes 52% to 41%.
* In an election today for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Doreen Carter, 51% to 40%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of GA adults 10/24/14 through 10/27/14. Of the adults, 657 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 611 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The US Senate seat is open. A candidate for statewide office in GA needs to reach 50% on Election Day, or a runoff is required.

In City of Wichita, Ballot Measure to Raise Sales Tax And Improve Infrastructure Appears Headed to Defeat

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 128 days ago

8 days until votes are counted, a city of Wichita KS ballot measure that would raise the city sales tax by one cent and use the funds to pay for a new city water supply, roads and other transportation infrastructure, faces a broad coalition of opposition, according to a KSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Today: “No” leads “Yes,” 59% to 36%. The measure is opposed by young and old, male and female, white and minority. The city’s few liberals split on the sales-tax increase, but the measure trails by 14 points among moderates and trails by 41 points among conservatives. Republicans oppose 2:1. Independents oppose 5:2. Democrats split.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of Wichita adults 10/20/14 through 10/26/14. Of the adults, 722 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 633 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/04/14. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit KSN-TV if you air, cite or publish these results.

10 Days till Votes Are Counted in San Jose CA, Dave Cortese May Have Ever-So-Slight Advantage Over Sam Liccardo for Mayor

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 128 days ago

In an election for the open seat of Mayor of San Jose CA today, 10/24/14, County Supervisor Dave Cortese appears to have a slight advantage over Councilman Sam Liccardo, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KPIX-TV in San Francisco. Cortese is at 44%, Liccardo is at 38%, but 19% are undecided, with voting underway. In a low-turnout municipal election, every vote is critical.

Women and Asian-Americans are a core part of Cortese’s constituency. White voters favor Liccardo. Hispanic Americans split. Asian-Americans back Cortese by more than 2:1. Men split. Women back Cortese by 14 points. Republicans, conservatives and independents favor Liccardo. Democrats, moderates and liberals favor Cortese. Cortese leads among lower-income and lesser-educated voters. Liccardo has a narrow advantage among the most educated and the most affluent.

Among respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, the contest is effectively tied, 44% for Cortese, 43% for Liccardo. Among respondents who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before the deadline, Cortese has a 7-point advantage..

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 city of San Jose CA adults 10/20/14 through 10/23/14. Of the adults, 594 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 540 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (85% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (15% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Outgoing Mayor Chuck Reed is term-limited.

2 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted In CA-21, Incumbent Republican Valadao In Tough Fight Against Democratic Challenger Renteria

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 133 days ago

2 weeks to Election Day in California’s 21st US Congressional District, Democratic Challenger Amanda Renteria is within possible striking distance of incumbent Republican David Valadao, according to a KFSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

In an election today, 10/21/14, it’s Valadao 47%, Renteria 42%. Valadao’s support is older. He leads by more than 25 points among seniors. Renteria’s support is younger. She leads by 16 points among the youngest voters. Every younger voter who turns out on Election Day helps the challenger. If the electorate is older, then the incumbent will outperform these numbers.

Compared to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 6 weeks ago, Renteria has surged among women. Back then, she trailed Valadao among women by 14 points. Today, she leads among women by 12, a 26-point turn-around. Valadao had lead by 25 points among men, now leads by 22.

Latino voters, who are the largest ethnic group in the District, back the Democrat 51% to 35%. Whites and Asians back the Republican. Independents break Republican. Moderates break Democratic. Of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (23% of likely voters), Valadao leads by 5 points, 50% to 45%. Of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have not yet voted, but will before the 11/04/14 deadline, Valadao leads by 6 points, 47% to 41%.

This research conducted 100% by telephone; live operators used to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters from California’s 21st Congressional District 10/15/14 through 10/20/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as: Voter List Sample) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 554 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of likely voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell phones, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview and remained on the line until the completion of the call. You must credit KFSN-TV, the ABC-owned station in Fresno, if you publish, broadcast, or cite these results in whole or part.

In Oakland CA, With Voting Underway, 5 Candidates out of 15 On Ballot Have a Chance To Be Elected Next Mayor

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 133 days ago

5 candidates running for Mayor of Oakland CA are in double-digits and have a chance to be elected on 11/04/14, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KPIX-TV in San Francisco.

The rules are complicated, and the winner will not selected on the first ballot, nor necessarily be every voter’s first choice. SurveyUSA’s best read on the field is:

* Rebecca Kaplan at 19%.
* Libby Schaaf at 17%.
* Incumbent Jean Quan at 15%.
* Joe Tuman at 15%.
* Bryan Parker at 10%.

Any one of these 5 may emerge as the winner.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 620 city of Oakland adults 10/17/14 through 10/21/14. Of the adults, 557 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 515 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to return a ballot on or before the 11/04/14 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Oregon, What Voters ‘Say’ and What Voters ‘Do’ May be Two Different Things; Cylvia Hayes Impact Analyzed

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 133 days ago

With each passing hour bringing new revelations about Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber’s fiance, Cylvia Hayes, KATU-TV and SurveyUSA attempt here to break the Oregon electorate into 4 quadrants. The question asked of voters paying close attention to the governor’s election and who are following news stories about Hayes, was this:

Which of the following best describes you?

1: I was going to vote for John Kitzhaber and I’m still going to vote for Kitzhaber.
2: I was going to vote for Dennis Richardson and I’m still going to vote for Richardson.
3: I was going to vote for Kitzhaber but now I will vote for Richardson.
4: I was going to vote for Richardson but now I will vote for Kitzhaber.

Answer:

38% were going to vote for Kitzhaber and will still vote for Kitzhaber.
37% were going to vote for Richardson and will still vote for Richardson.
18% were going to vote for Kitzhaber but now will vote for Richardson (disproportionately young, male, independent, liberals).
1% were going to vote for Richardson but now will vote for Kitzhaber.
6% overall, and, importantly, 9% of Democrats, are not sure what to do.

Earlier this week, SurveyUSA and KATU-TV reported that incumbent Democrat Kitzhaber led Republican challenger Richardson by 13 points, 51% to 38%. Will 18% of Oregon voters in fact defect from Kitzhaber over the Hayes news stories? Or, are these voters just saying they will switch to Richardson when in fact they will return Kitzhaber to office for a 4th term? Some of each, of course. In 13 days, we’ll know for sure how many defectors there actually were.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 Oregon adults 10/20/14 and 10/21/14. Of the adults, 856 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 60% (514 voters) are paying a lot of attention to the race for Governor. Of those paying attention, 79% (407 voters) are following stories about the fiance, Hayes. The poll’s essential question was asked just of the 407 qualified respondents. This may or may not directly overlap the universe of Oregon’s likely voters in 2014. Of note: Oregon has on the ballot, in addition to the Governor’s contest, a measure to legalize recreational marijuana. If the electorate is disproportionately young on election day, because of the marijuana initiative, that could be trouble for Kitzhaber. Young voters, of the 4 age groups cross-tabbed, are the most likely to say they will defect to Richardson

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