President Trump Seen ‘Very Favorably’ By 26% of USA Voters, Same Percentage as View TV Show Saturday Night Live ‘Very Favorably’
SurveyUSA asks registered voters nationwide to react to today’s newsmakers on a scale from “very favorable” to “very unfavorable.”
26% of American voters view President Donald Trump “very favorably,” compared to 38% who view Mr. Trump “very un-favorably.” The survey interviewed an equal number of Republicans and Democrats.
Trump is seen “very favorably” by the same percentage of Americans who view the TV show Saturday Night Live very favorably: 26%. This is 8 percentage points less than the 34% of Americans who view former President Barack Obama very favorably.
Trump’s Democratic challenger, Hillary Clinton, is also viewed “very unfavorably” by 38%, same as Trump.
Trump is viewed very favorably by a majority of Republican voters. He is viewed very unfavorably by a majority of African American and Hispanic American voters and by 82% of those who describe themselves as “very liberal.”
SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 adults nationwide 02/06/17 and 02/07/17. Of the adults, 1,207 were registered to vote and were asked the questions here. Research was conducted online. Material statement from SurveyUSA here.
America Favors White House Policy to Restrict Entry into USA from Certain Middle Eastern Countries, At the Same Time, Voters Nationwide Say The World Is Less Safe With Donald Trump in the White House
39% of registered voters nationwide say America is more safe if individuals from certain Middle-Eastern countries are not allowed to enter the United States, according to SurveyUSA research conducted 02/06/17 and 02/07/17. Hearings in Federal Court are being held at this hour.
24% of Americans say the United States will be less safe if certain individuals are denied entry. 26% say the policy will make no difference.
At the same time, voters say the world is less safe with Donald Trump as President. 34% say Trump makes the world a safer place (including 85% of Strong Republicans but just 4% of Strong Democrats). 42% say Trump makes the world less safe (including 81% of Strong Democrats and 5% of Strong Republicans).
31% of the respondents to this survey are Republicans, 31% are Democrats, 36% are independents.
Moderates and independents are split on the President’s immigration policy. 33% of moderates say it will make the country more safe, 21% say it will make the country less safe, 35% say it will make no difference. 33% of independents say it will make the country more safe, 25% say less safe, 31% say no difference.
A plurality of voters of every education level are with the President. A plurality of voters from every income level are with the President. A plurality of voters in the Midwest, South and West are with the President. Voters in the Northeast are split.
1st -generation voters, whose parents were not born in America, narrowly oppose the policy; 36% say it will make America less safe, 34% say it will make America more safe, 22% say the immigration policy will not make a difference.
SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 adults nationwide. Of the adults, 1,207 were registered to vote and were asked the questions here. Research was conducted online. Material statement from SurveyUSA here.
Trump Day 12: Californians Are Opposed To New Immigration Policy, Opposed to ‘Sanctuary State’ Designation, Opposed to Secession
Californians react to the first 12 days of a Donald Trump Presidency in this statewide survey conducted 01/31/17 exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-San Diego, the San Diego Union Tribune, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Among the key findings:
* Residents are torn by Trump’s new immigration policy: A plurality, 46%, is against forbidding individuals from 7 counties from entering America. But a plurality, 39%, says that the policy does make America safer. At the same time, a majority of those with an opinion, 58%, says the policy sends the wrong message to the world.
* A majority do not want California’s sanctuary cities to lose federal funding. Residents are split, however, on whether California should retaliate against the Trump administration by withholding federal tax dollars that flow through the state on their way to Washington DC, with a 6 point plurality, 42%, favoring withholding. A plurality, 44%, opposes designating all of California as a “sanctuary state.”
* Most Californians don’t know much about “Yes California,” a grassroots movement that wants California to withdraw from the United States and form a new country on its own. 18% at this hour favor secession, known also as CalExit. 68% oppose.
* 19% statewide say the Trump presidency has so far been better than they had expected. 35% say it has been worse than they had expected. 38% say it has been as expected.
* A plurality, 48%, say Trump will go down in history as one of America’s worst presidents, compared to 19% who say Trump will be remembered as one of America’s greatest presidents.
* 38% — including 55% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans — say Trump will be removed from office before his first term ends. 26% say Trump will serve out one full term. 21% say Trump will serve 2 full terms.
* Trump has a 34% job approval at this hour and a 52% job disapproval rating, for a Net Approval of Minus 18. California Governor Jerry Brown has a 48% job approval and 30% disapproval, for a Net Approval of Plus 18.
Context: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 California adults statewide 01/31/17. Cell-phone and landline respondents were included. Research was conducted 100% online. Interviews were completed after Trump fired the Interim Attorney General 01/30/17 and prior to Trump announcing his pick for the Supreme Court of the United States. California is the most populated of the 50 United States. 12% of the nation’s population lives in California. 14% of the USA’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) comes from California, which by some measures makes California the 6th largest economy in the world, were it to become its own independent nation. California today has a larger economy than Russia, Canada, Australia, India, and France and Italy. If supporters of “Yes California” obtain approximately 585,000 signatures on a petition by July 2017, the secession question could be put before California voters in 2018. That would not be the end of the process, just the beginning. An amendment to the United States constitution would need to be ratified by 38 states before the American flag flies with 49 stars. In the 11/08/16 Presidential election, Hillary Clinton carried California 62% to 32%. Trump received a smaller percentage of the popular vote in California than any Republican in the past 100 years.
On the day before Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States, 56% of San Francisco-area adults say they have an unfavorable opinion of him, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPIX-TV. 24% say they have a favorable view of Trump. By a 3:1 margin, Republicans view Trump favorably; by a 5:1 margin, Democrats view Trump unfavorably.
50% say Trump will go down in history as one of America’s worst Presidents, including 67% of Democrats. 14% say Trump will be one of America’s greatest presidents, including 37% of Republicans.
40% believe Trump will serve out his full term as President; 9% say he will choose to leave office early. 36% say they believe Trump will be removed from office.
56% say Trump is fundamentally dishonest; 20% say fundamentally honest. 24% say they do not yet know enough to say.
Full results and interactive crosstabs here.
In Washington State, Early ‘Banked’ Votes Are Salvation for Democrats Clinton, Inslee and Murray; Late Red Tide May Turn Evergreen And Other Blue States Purplish When Votes Are Counted; Carbon Tax Likely To Be Defeated
Intentionally or otherwise, FBI Director James Comey has turned the 11/08/16 general election upside down, triggering a red riptide that may extend beyond the top of the ticket, according to SurveyUSA research conducted in Washington State for KING-TV in Seattle.
Pollsters, like candidates, are in uncharted waters during these final 5 days of the 2016 campaign. That caveat acknowledged, here is SurveyUSA’s best take on the numbers we have gathered:
Democrat Hillary Clinton is way ahead among Washington state voters who have already returned a ballot, but the contest is effectively even among likely voters who have not yet voted. When the 2 groups are combined, it’s Clinton 50%, Trump 38%, minor party candidates 9%.
Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Inslee is way ahead among Washington state voters who have already returned a ballot, but Republican Bill Bryant leads among likely voters who have not yet voted. When the 2 groups are combined, it’s Inslee 50%, Bryant 43%.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray is way ahead among Washington State voters who have already returned a ballot, but Republican Chris Vance draws even with Murray among likely voters who have not yet voted. When the 2 groups are combined, it’s Murray 53%, Vance 41%.
Here are 3 different ways to interpret the discrepancy between early and late voters across all of the top-of-ticket contests:
1: Republicans in 2016 are all talk, no walk. They won’t show up on Election Day. Democrats cruise to victory in Washington State and elsewhere.
2: The air went out of the Democrats’ balloon with Comey’s 10/28/16 announcement; the wind is now at the Republicans’ back. All bets are off.
3: Clinton’s “ground game” has her just where she is supposed to be; the Comey announcement is a non-story.
Next Tuesday, we’ll know which of these hypotheses is correct.
Clinton leads by 31 points among the youngest voters but by just 5 among seniors. The younger the electorate, the better Clinton will do. Trump leads by 24 points in Eastern WA. Clinton leads 2:1 in metropolitan Seattle. Trump holds 85% of the Republican base. Clinton holds 94% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Moderate break for Clinton 5:3. Clinton leads by 12 points among the most affluent voters and by 22 points among the most educated voters. She leads by 22 points in urban Washington and by 19 points in suburban Washington. Trump leads by 10 points in rural Washington. Clinton leads by 29 points among single voters; married voters split. Clinton leads by 27 points among voters who have lived in Washington State less than 20 years. Clinton leads by just 7 points among those who have lived in Washington more than 20 years.
Among voters who say honesty is the most important quality in a Presidential candidate, Trump leads Clinton by more than 2:1. Among voters who say integrity is the most important quality, Clinton leads Trump by 18 points. Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the choice of a President, Clinton leads Trump by 15 points. Among voters who say the Supreme Court is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 20 points. Of Clinton backers, 64% are voting “for Clinton,” 35% are voting “against Trump.” Of Trump backers, 59% are voting “for Trump,” 38% are voting “against Clinton.”
Inslee leads by 23 points in metropolitan Seattle, edges Bryant in Western WA, but trails Bryant by more than 2:1 in Eastern WA. Inslee leads by 11 among women, and more specifically leads by 15 points among suburban women. Bryant leads by 14 points among rural men, but trails by 14 points among urban men and by 4 points among suburban men. Inslee leads by 21 points among the youngest voters, but trails Bryant by 3 points among seniors. Of Trump supporters, 92% vote for Bryant. Of Clinton supporters, 88% vote for Inslee, 9% defect to Bryant.
Of voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the contest for Governor, Inslee edges Bryant 49% to 44%. Of voters who say education is most important in the Governor’s race, Inslee leads by 52 points. Of voters who say taxes are most important, Bryant leads by 60 points.
Murray is positioned for reelection to her 5th term in the United States Senate, with a 33-point lead among urban women and a 23-point lead among suburban women. Vance leads by 10 points in military households and leads by 28 points in Eastern WA. Of those voting for the Republican Bryant for Governor, 84% vote for the Republican Vance for Senator, 13% cross-over for Murray. Of those who vote for the Democrat Inslee for Governor, 92% stay with the Democrat Murray for Senator.
In the election for State Superintendent of Public Instruction, a large number of undecided voters make the outcome uncertain. Among voters with a preference, Chris Reykdal edges Erin Jones 32% to 28%, but 41% of likely voters are not sure how they will vote for Superintendent. Among voters who say they have already returned a ballot, Reykdal and Jones are tied, 35% each. Too-close-to-call.
Initiative 1433, which would raise the minimum wage, leads 56% to 38% at this hour, with overwhelming support among early voters, tepid support among those who have not yet returned a ballot. 1433 leads by 35 points among high-school educated voters and by 35 points among lower-income voters. The measure is almost certain to pass.
Initiative 732, which would impose a carbon emission tax on the sale or use of certain fossil fuels, trails badly at this hour and is likely to be defeated. Republicans oppose 732 by nearly 6:1, conservatives oppose 732 by 7:1. Democrats favor 732 but only by 5:4.
* 32% of voters have an extremely favorable opinion of President Barack Obama, 31% have an extremely unfavorable opinion.
* 14% of voters have an extremely favorable opinion of Clinton, 41% have an extremely unfavorable opinion.
* 12% of voters have an extremely favorable opinion of Trump, 51% have an extremely unfavorable opinion.
Context and Methodology:
SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Washington adults 10/31/16 through 11/02/16. All of the interviews for this survey were completed after the 10/28/16 announcement by the FBI that it had found State Department emails on a previously unknown electronic device. Of the adults interviewed, 734 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, just 2% say they will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. 3% say they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. Of the registered voters, 681 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be certain to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Obama carried Washington state by 15 percentage points over Republican Mitt Romney. In 2008, Obama carried Washington by 17 points over Republican John McCain. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried Washington by 7 points over George W Bush. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore carried Washington by 5 points. The last Republican to win Washington was Ronald Reagan in 1984. In 2016, Washington has 12 electoral votes.
In the non-partisan election to fill the open seat for Mayor of Fresno CA, Lee Brand appears to move ever-so-slightly ahead of Henry R Perea in the campaign’s final week, according to SurveyUSA polling commissioned by KFSN-TV.
Perea and Brand have been effectively even since SurveyUSA began polling the contest in August. Before today, the candidates had never been separated by more than 2 points. Now, with almost half of voters telling SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Brand finds himself in front, 51% to 40%.
Caution: This research was conducted at a time of great political instability, having to do with the FBI’s renewed interest in Hillary Clinton’s emails. Though the Fresno contest is officially non-partisan, Perea’s support is liberal, Latino and Democratic, and Brand’s support is white, conservative and Republican. It is impossible to know whether the results of this survey reflect an actual demoralized Democratic electorate, which may ripple up and down the California ballot on 11/08/16, or whether Democrats and liberals will rally in the campaign’s remaining 5 days, and Perea will outperform the numbers shown here.
* Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Brand leads by 11 points, 53% to 42%.
* Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot, but who promise to vote before polls close, Brand also leads by 11 points, 49% to 38%.
About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the city of Fresno 10/31/16 through 11/02/16. Of the adults, 701 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 595 who have already voted or who promise to do so. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.