In Fresno, Mayoral Candidates Perea and Brand Fight To Be 1 of the 2 Who Advance From June Primary To Runoff Election in November
3 weeks till votes are counted in the open, non-partisan primary for Mayor of Fresno CA, Henry R. Perea leads Lee Brand and 3 other candidates, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KFSN-TV. But Perea does not appear positioned at this hour to reach the 50% plus 1 vote that is required in order to avoid an 11/08/16 runoff.
With early voting underway, SurveyUSA finds Perea at 38%, Lee Brand at 26%, H. Spees at 16%, Doug Vagim at 5%, and Richard Renteria at 3%. Among those who have already returned a ballot, Perea leads by 15 points. Among those who have not yet voted but who tell SurveyUSA they will on or before 06/07/16, Perea leads by 11 points.
12% of voters today are undecided. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, the number of undecided voters has dropped by 6 percentage points, from 18% to 12%. Each of the top 3 candidates picked up a couple of extra votes as a result:
* Perea was at 36% two weeks ago, now at 38%.
* Brand was at 24% two weeks ago, now at 26%.
* Spees was at 13% two weeks ago, now at 16%.
If Perea were to receive 38% of today’s undecided voters, he would finish with 43% on Primary Election Day. Perea would need to receive every undecided vote to approach the 50% needed to win the Mayor’s seat outright.
Perea is backed by 2 of 3 Latino voters. Brand edges Perea 33% to 29% among white city voters. Brand runs strong among the oldest voters, where he inches to within 3 points of Perea, 33% for Perea to 30% for Brand. The older the 06/07/16 primary electorate is, the better Brand will perform. The younger the primary electorate, the better Perea will perform. Perea leads by 41 points among voters age 35 to 49.
Perea leads Brand both among voters who say the city is well managed and among voters who say the city is poorly managed. And, regardless of which issue voters say is most important — crime, gangs, economic development or homelessness — Perea leads Brand.
Brand leads among Strong Republicans and Republicans. Brand and Perea tie among Independents who Lean Republican. Perea leads among Independents, Independents who Lean Democratic, Democrats and Strong Democrats. Brand leads narrowly among the city’s most affluent voters; Perea leads among middle-income and lower-income voters.
The city of Fresno Mayoral Primary is held on the same day as the state of California presidential primary and U.S. Senate Primary. At one point, it appeared that the Republican presidential nominee would be determined by California, in which case Republican turnout statewide would have been higher, helping Brand. Now, the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations are all-but-decided, and so Fresno candidates will have to generate their own tailwind.
60% of white primary voters vote for someone other than Perea, so were Perea to face Brand one-on-one in November, the outcome is far from certain.
About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 city of Fresno registered voters using voter-list sample (also known as “RBS” sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 589 were likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (88% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (12% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.