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In Georgia, Week-On-Week, Republican Perdue Surges to Re-Take Key Senate Lead Away from Democrat Nunn

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 54 days ago

Compared to a WXIA-TV pre-election tracking poll one week ago, Democrat Michelle Nunn is upside down. One week ago, Nunn led Republican David Perdue by 2 points, 46% to 44%. Today, in a dramatic reversal, Perdue is on top, 48% to 45%, a 5-point right turn in one of the nation’s most high-visibility contests. Polling for Atlanta’s WXIA-TV 11Alive was conducted by SurveyUSA.

Where in the Senate race is there movement poll-on-poll? Among women, where Perdue had trailed by 13 points and now trails by just 2. And among core Republicans, where Perdue’s 84-point advantage is the largest it has been in 7 WXIA-TV tracking polls going back to 08/18/14. There is movement to Perdue among seniors, where he now leads by 25 points. Worse for Nunn: among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Perdue leads by 10 points.

In the election for Governor of Georgia, by contrast, there is no poll-on-poll movement. One week ago, incumbent Republican Governor Nathan Deal led by 2 points. Today, he still leads by 2 points. Today, Democratic challenger Jason Carter gets 44%, Perdue gets 46%. Among those voters who tell SurveyUSA they have returned a ballot, Deal leads by 9 points. Runoff-maker Andrew Hunt’s support is down to 3% today, the lowest he has been in 7 tracking polls. The further Hunt’s support drops, the less likely there will need to be a runoff.

* In an election today for the open seat of School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods edges Democratic challenger Valarie Wilson, 48% to 43%.
* In an election today for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens edges Democrat Greg Hecht, 48% to 43%.
* In an election today for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democrat Connie Stokes 52% to 41%.
* In an election today for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Doreen Carter, 51% to 40%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of GA adults 10/24/14 through 10/27/14. Of the adults, 657 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 611 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The US Senate seat is open. A candidate for statewide office in GA needs to reach 50% on Election Day, or a runoff is required.

In City of Wichita, Ballot Measure to Raise Sales Tax And Improve Infrastructure Appears Headed to Defeat

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 55 days ago

8 days until votes are counted, a city of Wichita KS ballot measure that would raise the city sales tax by one cent and use the funds to pay for a new city water supply, roads and other transportation infrastructure, faces a broad coalition of opposition, according to a KSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Today: “No” leads “Yes,” 59% to 36%. The measure is opposed by young and old, male and female, white and minority. The city’s few liberals split on the sales-tax increase, but the measure trails by 14 points among moderates and trails by 41 points among conservatives. Republicans oppose 2:1. Independents oppose 5:2. Democrats split.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of Wichita adults 10/20/14 through 10/26/14. Of the adults, 722 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 633 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/04/14. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit KSN-TV if you air, cite or publish these results.

10 Days till Votes Are Counted in San Jose CA, Dave Cortese May Have Ever-So-Slight Advantage Over Sam Liccardo for Mayor

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 55 days ago

In an election for the open seat of Mayor of San Jose CA today, 10/24/14, County Supervisor Dave Cortese appears to have a slight advantage over Councilman Sam Liccardo, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KPIX-TV in San Francisco. Cortese is at 44%, Liccardo is at 38%, but 19% are undecided, with voting underway. In a low-turnout municipal election, every vote is critical.

Women and Asian-Americans are a core part of Cortese’s constituency. White voters favor Liccardo. Hispanic Americans split. Asian-Americans back Cortese by more than 2:1. Men split. Women back Cortese by 14 points. Republicans, conservatives and independents favor Liccardo. Democrats, moderates and liberals favor Cortese. Cortese leads among lower-income and lesser-educated voters. Liccardo has a narrow advantage among the most educated and the most affluent.

Among respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, the contest is effectively tied, 44% for Cortese, 43% for Liccardo. Among respondents who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before the deadline, Cortese has a 7-point advantage..

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 750 city of San Jose CA adults 10/20/14 through 10/23/14. Of the adults, 594 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 540 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (85% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (15% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Outgoing Mayor Chuck Reed is term-limited.

2 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted In CA-21, Incumbent Republican Valadao In Tough Fight Against Democratic Challenger Renteria

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 60 days ago

2 weeks to Election Day in California’s 21st US Congressional District, Democratic Challenger Amanda Renteria is within possible striking distance of incumbent Republican David Valadao, according to a KFSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

In an election today, 10/21/14, it’s Valadao 47%, Renteria 42%. Valadao’s support is older. He leads by more than 25 points among seniors. Renteria’s support is younger. She leads by 16 points among the youngest voters. Every younger voter who turns out on Election Day helps the challenger. If the electorate is older, then the incumbent will outperform these numbers.

Compared to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 6 weeks ago, Renteria has surged among women. Back then, she trailed Valadao among women by 14 points. Today, she leads among women by 12, a 26-point turn-around. Valadao had lead by 25 points among men, now leads by 22.

Latino voters, who are the largest ethnic group in the District, back the Democrat 51% to 35%. Whites and Asians back the Republican. Independents break Republican. Moderates break Democratic. Of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (23% of likely voters), Valadao leads by 5 points, 50% to 45%. Of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have not yet voted, but will before the 11/04/14 deadline, Valadao leads by 6 points, 47% to 41%.

This research conducted 100% by telephone; live operators used to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters from California’s 21st Congressional District 10/15/14 through 10/20/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as: Voter List Sample) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 554 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of likely voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell phones, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview and remained on the line until the completion of the call. You must credit KFSN-TV, the ABC-owned station in Fresno, if you publish, broadcast, or cite these results in whole or part.

In Oakland CA, With Voting Underway, 5 Candidates out of 15 On Ballot Have a Chance To Be Elected Next Mayor

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 60 days ago

5 candidates running for Mayor of Oakland CA are in double-digits and have a chance to be elected on 11/04/14, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KPIX-TV in San Francisco.

The rules are complicated, and the winner will not selected on the first ballot, nor necessarily be every voter’s first choice. SurveyUSA’s best read on the field is:

* Rebecca Kaplan at 19%.
* Libby Schaaf at 17%.
* Incumbent Jean Quan at 15%.
* Joe Tuman at 15%.
* Bryan Parker at 10%.

Any one of these 5 may emerge as the winner.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 620 city of Oakland adults 10/17/14 through 10/21/14. Of the adults, 557 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 515 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to return a ballot on or before the 11/04/14 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Oregon, What Voters ‘Say’ and What Voters ‘Do’ May be Two Different Things; Cylvia Hayes Impact Analyzed

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 60 days ago

With each passing hour bringing new revelations about Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber’s fiance, Cylvia Hayes, KATU-TV and SurveyUSA attempt here to break the Oregon electorate into 4 quadrants. The question asked of voters paying close attention to the governor’s election and who are following news stories about Hayes, was this:

Which of the following best describes you?

1: I was going to vote for John Kitzhaber and I’m still going to vote for Kitzhaber.
2: I was going to vote for Dennis Richardson and I’m still going to vote for Richardson.
3: I was going to vote for Kitzhaber but now I will vote for Richardson.
4: I was going to vote for Richardson but now I will vote for Kitzhaber.

Answer:

38% were going to vote for Kitzhaber and will still vote for Kitzhaber.
37% were going to vote for Richardson and will still vote for Richardson.
18% were going to vote for Kitzhaber but now will vote for Richardson (disproportionately young, male, independent, liberals).
1% were going to vote for Richardson but now will vote for Kitzhaber.
6% overall, and, importantly, 9% of Democrats, are not sure what to do.

Earlier this week, SurveyUSA and KATU-TV reported that incumbent Democrat Kitzhaber led Republican challenger Richardson by 13 points, 51% to 38%. Will 18% of Oregon voters in fact defect from Kitzhaber over the Hayes news stories? Or, are these voters just saying they will switch to Richardson when in fact they will return Kitzhaber to office for a 4th term? Some of each, of course. In 13 days, we’ll know for sure how many defectors there actually were.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 Oregon adults 10/20/14 and 10/21/14. Of the adults, 856 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 60% (514 voters) are paying a lot of attention to the race for Governor. Of those paying attention, 79% (407 voters) are following stories about the fiance, Hayes. The poll’s essential question was asked just of the 407 qualified respondents. This may or may not directly overlap the universe of Oregon’s likely voters in 2014. Of note: Oregon has on the ballot, in addition to the Governor’s contest, a measure to legalize recreational marijuana. If the electorate is disproportionately young on election day, because of the marijuana initiative, that could be trouble for Kitzhaber. Young voters, of the 4 age groups cross-tabbed, are the most likely to say they will defect to Richardson

In NV, With Voting Underway, Question 3, ‘The Margin Tax,’ Trails; In Clark County, Lombardo and Burns Battle To Replace Gillespie as Sheriff

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 60 days ago

Nevada’s hotly contested ballot measure, Question 3, which would tax certain NV businesses and use the money to fund public education, appears to be losing steam as Election Day approaches, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KLAS-TV in Las Vegas. “No” leads “Yes” 49% to 34% at this hour. Defeat is likely.

The measure is officially known as the “Nevada Margin Tax for Public Schools Initiative.” Republicans and conservatives overwhelmingly oppose it. Young people and Hispanic Americans overwhelmingly support it. The measure trails in all 4 regions of the state.

In the election for Sheriff of Clark County NV, which includes the city of Las Vegas and 70% of NV’s population, Assistant Sheriff Joe Lombardo and retired Las Vegas Police Department Captain Larry Burns are locked in a tight fight that could go either way. 32% of Clark County voters tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote for Burns. 26% tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote for Lombardo. But 43% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they are not certain how they will vote in the contest, though ballots will be counted in less than 2 weeks. Either law-man may emerge victorious.

Burns’s support is disproportionately young. The younger the electorate on 11/04/14, the better Burns will do. Lombardo’s support is older. He leads by more than 2:1 among Clark County’s seniors. The older the electorate, the better Lombardo will do.

Burns, who has a high-school education, leads by 2:1 among high-school educated voters. The contest is tied in the city of Las Vegas. What advantage Burns may have comes from the rest of Clark County, where he leads by 10 points. Incumbent Sheriff Doug Gillespie is not seeking a 3rd term.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 920 state of NV adults 10/16/14 through 10/21/14. Of the adults, 772 were registered to vote statewide. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 602 were likely to vote statewide, and a subset of them, 434, were likely to vote in Clark County. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters statewide) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters statewide) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

No Telling What Will Happen in CA-52, As Voters Digest News Stories About Challenger Carl DeMaio

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 60 days ago

In research conducted in the middle of fast-unfolding news events, voters in California’s 52nd US Congressional District appear to shrug-off charge and counter-charge involving the Republican challenger Carl DeMaio, and may yet elect him to the US House of Representatives, unseating 1st-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for the U-T San Diego newspaper and KGTV-TV 10News in San Diego.

Interested parties must exercise extreme caution when interpreting these results. Wildcard news events may overtake the normal back-and-forth of a campaign for the US House of Representatives. 89% of the interviews for this survey were conducted after reports DeMaio had been accused by a former campaign worker of sexual harassment. This story was widely reported. The remaining 11% of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the San Diego District Attorney announced that it would not press criminal charges against DeMaio. But: between now and Election Day, the contest may be more volatile than were external forces not in play.

Today, it’s DeMaio 46%, Peters 45%, with 10% undecided. SurveyUSA has polled the contest 3 times since Labor Day. In that time, DeMaio has never polled less than 46%. Peters has never polled above 47%. So far, there is no erosion in DeMaio’s support among Republicans, where he still leads 6:1, and no increase in Peters’ support among Democrats. However, among Independents, poll-on-poll, the number of undecided voters has gone up from 8% to 18%. Where these 18% of Independent voters land on Election Day may well determine the outcome of the contest.

Live interviewers were used to reach cell-phone respondents for this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from California’s 52nd US Congressional District 10/17/14 through 10/20/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/04/14. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones, by live operators who hand-dialed the cell phone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call.

With the Finish Line Now in Sight, and Many Votes Already Cast, Georgia’s Governor and Senate Contests Remain Anyone’s Guess

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 61 days ago

Is Nathan Deal going to be re-elected as Georgia’s Governor? We can’t tell you that. Is Michelle Nunn going to “take away” Saxby Chambliss’ US Senate Seat from the Republican Party? We can’t tell you that either. Which is pretty remarkable given how close we are to Election Day.

What we can tell you is that the latest exclusive weekly tracking poll for WXIA-TV in Atlanta continues to show 2 top-of-ticket contests that ever-so-slightly ebb and flow, and remain too-close-to-call. A runoff-election for one or both contests is possible, but by no means certain.

The brand-new numbers, collected by SurveyUSA, find Democrat Nunn at 46%, Republican David Perdue at 44%, in the nationally significant contest for Senator — results that are within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. And the brand-new numbers show incumbent Republican Deal at 45%, and Democratic challenger Jason Carter at 43%, in the contest for Governor of GA, a nominal 2-point Republican advantage that may or may not turn out to be statistically significant.

In the Senate race, poll-on-poll, week-on-week, Nunn is down 2 points, Perdue is down 1 point. Undecided is up 3 points. Perdue has been steadily, though gradually, declining over the past 6 WXIA-TV tracking polls, going back to August, when he polled at 50%. Nunn has been not-so-consistently gaining ground. It is unclear if the 48% she reached last week is a peak or a plateau. Wildcard Libertarian Amanda Swafford polls at 4% today, but because her support is so young, and because she receives just 1% among respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, it is hard to handicap just how much of a spoiler role she will play. Among women, Perdue’s support is down from a high of 44% to today 38%. Among Independents, Perdue at one point led 2:1, but now is tied, 40% to 40%. On the other hand, among voters who have already returned a ballot, Perdue has a 53% to 43% advantage. For Nunn to win, she will need to overcome those “banked” Republican votes between now and Election Day. No down-ballot Democrat gets more than 44% of the vote.

In the Governor race, poll-on-poll, week-on-week, Deal is down 1 point, Carter is down 3 points. Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4%, siphoning votes from across the political spectrum. 8% are undecided. In greater Atlanta, Carter goes from 59% last week to 49% this week. That alone could account for the Democratic slippage observed at the highest level. If neither candidate gets to 50%, state law requires a runoff.

* For School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods is at 46% today, Democrat Valarie Wilson is at 44%.
* For Attorney General, Republican Sam Olens leads Democrat Greg Hecht, 47% to 40%.
* For Lieutenant Governor, Republican Casey Cagle today is 8 points ahead of Democrat Connie Stokes, 48% to 40%.
* For Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp today leads Democrat Doreen Carter 49% to 40%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of GA adults 10/17/14 through 10/20/14. Of the adults, 653 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 606 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The US Senate seat is open.

As Fiance Cylvia Hayes Revelations Unfold, Oregon Yawns; Incumbent Dem Gov Kitzhaber Still Outpaces GOP Challenger Richardson; Ballot Measure #91, To Legalize Recreational Marijuana, Gains; Opposition Builds to Measure #92, Which Would Label Certain Foods

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 61 days ago

Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber’s fiance, Cylvia Hayes, made as much news during the interviewing for this survey as did either of the 2 candidates for office. Yet Oregon voters seem to-date unfazed by the developments, and remain poised to re-elect the Governor to a 4th term, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for KATU-TV in Portland.

Kitzhaber today leads Republican Dennis Richardson by 13 points, 51% to 38%. In 3 previous KATU-TV polls, before Hayes was in the headlines, Kitzhaber led by 13 points, 12 points and 12 points.

Voters who say Kitzhaber deserves almost all of the blame for the failure of “Cover Oregon,” overwhelmingly vote for Richardson. Voters who say that Kitzhaber deserves none of the blame, overwhelmingly vote for Kitzhaber.

Briefly overshadowed in some quarters by the week’s events, is Oregon Ballot Measure 91, which would legalize recreational marijuana for adults age 21 and older. Today, “Yes” on 91 leads “No” 48% to 37%. Compared to an identical 09/25/14 SurveyUSA poll, Yes is up 4 points, No is down 3 points. Yes had led by 4, now leads by 11. Greater Portland supports 91 by 15 points. The “rest of Oregon” supports 91 by just 2 points. Caution: support for this measure is young. Opposition is old. Older voters are more reliable than younger voters in a mid-term election. Any outcome remains possible, though “Yes” has the upper hand at this hour.

Opposition to Ballot Measure #92, which would require that certain genetically engineered foods be labeled, is up, support is down. A month ago, 92 led by 32 points. Today, 92 leads by just 7 points, 44% Yes to 37% No. Today, liberals support by 7:2. Conservatives oppose by 4:1. Any outcome is possible.

All but lost on the radar screen is 1st-term Democratic incumbent US Senator Jeff Merkley, who continues to cruise to re-election. Merkley today leads Republican challenger Monica Wehby 53% to 32%. In 3 previous polls, Merkley led by 18 points, 19 points and 20 points. Today: 21 points.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/16/14 through 10/19/14. Of the adults, 623 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 561 were determined by SurveyUSA to be return a ballot before the 11/04/14 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Interviewing for this survey was conducted during fast-moving news events. It is possible voters have not had time to digest some of the news as yet. In that case, these numbers may change again between now and Election Day.

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