In Florida, Could Rising Clinton Tide Sink Rubio? Marco Maintains Slight Edge At The Moment, 2 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted

SurveyUSA Operations - 41 days ago

The hold-your-breath state of Florida has high-profile contests for President and U.S. Senate that could go either way when votes are counted in 14 days, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 in Orlando.

Democrat Hillary Clinton has a narrow, 48% to 45% advantage over Republican Donald Trump, with 6% of voters saying they will vote for minor-party candidates.

Clinton leads 2:1 among the youngest voters. If the youngest voters show up — and that is a significant “if” — Clinton carries the state’s critical 29 electoral votes. Trump leads by 11 points among the state’s seniors, and they will show up. The older the electorate, the better Trump will perform. Clinton leads among women, but not by much: 6 points. Much more worrisome for Trump is that he does not lead among men; Clinton edges him by a nominal 1 point, 47% to 46%. And, putting a finer point on it, Trump does not lead among high-school educated men, a group he must carry; Clinton edges him there by 4 points, 49% to 45%. Among “very conservative” men, Clinton siphons 1 out of 6 voters, from a group where Trump cannot afford to lose a single vote.

Trump leads among the state’s white voters, 50% to 42%. Clinton leads overwhelmingly, as expected, among the state’s African American voters. Cubans break for Trump, 49% to 44%. Non-Cuban Hispanics back Clinton, 56% to 37%. Asians prefer Clinton by 14 points.

4 in 10 voters say the economy is the most important issue in 2016, and among those voters, Clinton leads 5:4. Trump leads by 49 points among voters focused on immigration, but only 1 in 8 voters say immigration is the most important issue. Trump leads by 47 points among Evangelicals, by 24 points among gun owners, by 7 points in military households. Clinton leads by 26 points in Southeast Florida, which is enough to offset Trump’s advantage in Northwest FL (Trump up 20), Central FL (Trump up 7), and Southwest FL (Trump up 4). The candidates are tied in Northeast FL.

Whatever stink there is on either candidate offsets: Among Trump supporters, two-thirds are voting “for Trump,” one-third are voting “against Clinton.” Among Clinton supporters, two-thirds are voting “for Clinton,” one-third are voting “against Trump.” 24% of Trump voters have reservations about Trump. 29% of Clinton supporters have reservations about Clinton.

Incumbent Republican Marco Rubio is running 4 point ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy in the high-profile contest for U.S. Senator, 45% to 41%. Rubio leads 2:1 among Cubans, but by 5 points among non-Cuban Hispanics. 8 in 10 Rubio voters are also Trump voters, and should Trump’s support collapse in the campaign’s final days, Rubio could be caught in the undertow. And, if the Clinton get-out-the-vote operation produces bonus Democrats and friendly Independents beyond what is anticipated here, Murphy may outperform these numbers.

Rubio can take comfort in his 13-point lead among seniors, but the youngest voters back Murphy. The contest may well be decided by Baby Boomers, who today back Rubio by 2 points, 45% to 43%. Murphy leads by 20 points in Southeast Florida, but Rubio leads everywhere else. To upset Rubio, Murphy must gain late ground among independent men, where he trails by 5, and independent women, where he trails by 11.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 state of Florida adults 10/20/16 through 10/24/16. Of the adults, 1,314 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 1,251 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 election. Just 1% of voters interviewed for this survey say they “almost always” vote in Presidential elections, but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. 5% of voters say they “almost never” vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates. Importantly: these “new” voters are spread across the political spectrum; they are not disproportionately Trump supporters. All of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the 3rd Presidential debate and at a time when Trump described himself as “unshackled.” This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (65% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. No state has a higher profile and no state is more fiercely contested than Florida in a Presidential election. Obama carried the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2012 and by 3 percentage points in 2008. Republican George W Bush carried the state by 5 points in 2004 and by a handful of votes in 2000. More than 1 million early ballots have already been returned out of an expected 8.5 million ballots to be counted on Election Day.

Presidential Debates Have Left Some Voters in Southern MN / Northern IA Confused; Few Have Switched From One Candidate to the Other

SurveyUSA Operations - 42 days ago

Just a handful of area residents have changed their minds as a result of watching the first two Presidential debates, a new KAAL-TV poll reveals. Only 2% from Southern MN / Northern IA have switched from Trump to Clinton. An equally tiny but offsetting 3% have switched from Clinton to Trump. A larger number, 12%, say the debates have made them more confused than ever.

When all likely voters who watched one or both debates are examined, Clinton and Trump are effectively even, 41% for Clinton and 40% for Trump, well within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.

52% of area voters say that Donald Trump is not fit to be President.

50% of area voters say Hillary Clinton is not fit to be President.

Clinton voters are 16 times more likely than Trump voters to say a candidate’s temperament is most important when deciding who to vote for.

35% of likely voters (disproportionately Democrats) say that if their state legislator backed Trump, they would be less likely to vote for that representative.

35% of likely voters (disproportionately Republicans) say that if their state legislator backed Clinton, they would be less likely to vote for that representative.

About: 750 adults from across the viewing area were interviewed 10/17/16 through 10/18/16. Of the adults, 653 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 620 were judged to be likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (83% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (17% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device.

In Re-Match in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Nolan an Underdog, 19 Days to Go

SurveyUSA Operations - 44 days ago

Incumbent Democrat Rick Nolan will need to come from behind to hold onto his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Democrats expect to pick-up House seats in the 2016 general election, but this has the potential to be a District that flips from Blue to Red.

Republican challenger Stuart Mills, who lost to Nolan by 3,700 votes in 2014, today narrowly edges Nolan, 45% to 41%, with 14% of likely voters still on the fence and able to swing the contest one way or the other. Either candidate may emerge.

Mills leads among voters younger than 64. Nolan leads only among seniors age 65+. Mills has a 10-point advantage among men, which Nolan cannot overcome with his 3-point advantage among women. 84% of Republicans vote for the Republican; 89% of Democrats vote for the Democrat. But independent voters — critical to both candidates — break for Mills at this hour, 45% to 35%, enough to make him the favorite.

Among voters who say that health care is the most important issue in the campaign, Nolan leads by 17 points. Among voters focused on terrorism, Mills leads 3:1. Among voters focused on taxes, Mills leads 2:1.

High-school educated voters vote overwhelmingly Republican; Nolan leads narrowly among those with a 4-year college degree.

Republican Donald Trump carries the district 47% to 35% over Hillary Clinton at this hour. Of those voting for Trump, 81% also vote for Mills. Of those voting for Clinton, 87% also vote for Nolan.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Minnesota’s 8th U.S. Congressional District 10/16/16 through 10/19/16, using registration based sample (RBS, also-known-as: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 595 likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents) were called on their cell-phones by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, ensured the respondent’s safety, asked the respondent the survey questions, entered the respondent’s answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the interview. MN-08 is a vast expanse of real estate stretching north from St Paul, over the top of Lake Superior, to the Canadian border, and as far west as Hubbard and Wadena Counties. Duluth is one of several population centers.

Will Hillary Clinton Drag Henry Perea Across the Finish Line in Fresno? Or will Donald Trump’s Army Marshal Forces for Lee Brand?

SurveyUSA Operations - 48 days ago

SurveyUSA polling for KFSN-TV in Fresno shows that Donald Trump in California may receive the smallest percentage of votes of any Republican candidate for President in the past 100 years. The question in Fresno is: how does an overwhelming Clinton romp in the Golden State translate when ballots are counted in the city of Fresno’s non-partisan election for Mayor?

Henry R Perea is backed 3:1 by Latinos, 5:3 by African Americans, 5:1 among Strong Democrats.

Lee Brand is backed 2:1 among whites and 9:1 among Strong Republicans.

A larger white, conservative, Republican turnout in the city of Fresno helps Brand and Brand wins. A larger non-white, liberal, Democratic turnout in the city of Fresno helps Perea and Perea wins.

At the moment, the two are exactly where they have been for months: tied.

Not “sort of” tied, or “effectively even.” Exactly and precisely tied: 44% for Brand. 44% for Perea.

Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (about 1 in every 6 voters), Perea leads by 22 points. Is this evidence of greater enthusiasm for Perea? Unclear. Is this evidence of the Democratic Party having a stronger Get-Out-The-Vote operation in California? Perhaps. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close on 11/08/16, Brand leads by 4 points.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the city of Fresno 10/16/16 through 10/18/16. Of the adults, 683 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 569 who have already voted or who promise to do so. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

On Eve of Final Debate, Clinton 10 Atop Trump Nationwide in Take-No-Prisoners Campaign; She Leads by 44 Points Among Urban Women … He Leads by 9 Points Among Rural Women

SurveyUSA Operations - 48 days ago

With Americans across the country already voting, 1 day till the 3rd Presidential debate and 20 days until votes are counted, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeats Republican Donald Trump 46% to 36% in an election today, 10/18/16. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 5%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 2%.

In research conducted exclusively for the Boston Globe and Colby College of Waterville, Maine, SurveyUSA finds:

Trump leads by 6 points among white voters.
Clinton leads by 79 points among African American voters.
Clinton leads by 35 points among Hispanic voters.

Trump leads by 15 points in rural America.
Clinton leads by 8 points in suburban America.
Clinton leads by 34 points in urban America.

Among all women, Clinton leads by 13 points. That breaks down this way:

Trump leads by 9 points among rural women.
Clinton leads by 12 points among suburban women.
Clinton leads by 44 points among urban women.

Seniors split, 41% for Clinton, 40% for Trump. Clinton leads by 30 points among the youngest voters. Independents split, 34% for Trump, 34% for Clinton. Moderates break for Clinton 45% to 33%. The most affluent voters break narrowly for Trump. Clinton leads 2:1 among the least affluent voters.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide 10/11/16 through 10/14/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16. Of the adults, 878 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 845 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote before polls close 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% online.

Battle for Every Vote in Tarheel State: Clinton/Trump, Burr/Ross, McCrory/Cooper All Neck-and-Neck As Early Voting Nears Start

SurveyUSA Operations - 49 days ago

24 hours before the final Presidential debate between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, and 48 hours before North Carolina voters begin casting ballots, Clinton nominally leads Trump by two points, 46% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News. Libertarian Gary Johnson takes 6% of the vote; 4% of likely voters are undecided. In a 2-way match-up, Clinton still edges Trump by 2 points, 48% to 46%.

Trump leads by 11 points among men; Clinton leads by 12 among women — a 23-point gender gap. Among suburban men, Trump leads by 3; among suburban women Clinton leads by 33. In rural NC, Trump leads by 34 points among men, and by 6 points among women. Trump leads among middle-aged voters; Clinton leads among younger and older voters. Among whites, Trump leads 5:3; among blacks, Clinton leads by nearly 7:1. 9% of registered Republicans cross over to vote for Clinton; 17% of registered Democrats cross over to vote for Trump. Unaffiliated voters — those who have not registered a political party preference with the state — are divided. 88% of those who, regardless of their party registration, consider themselves to be Republicans vote Trump; 94% of those who identify as Democrats vote Clinton. Self-described independents favor Trump by 6 points. Clinton wins moderates by 8 points.

Trump leads by 17 points among those who say the economy is the most important issue in this year’s election, and by 45 points among those who say immigration is most important. Clinton leads by 32 points among voters focused on health care and by 62 points among voters who say education is the most important issue. Among voters with high school educations, Trump leads 2:1; among voters who have attended some college, Trump holds a slight lead; among those who have graduated a 4-year college, Clinton leads 5:3. Men with high school educations prefer Trump by nearly 5:1. College-educated whites break for Clinton, 45% to 39%.

In the race for United States Senator from North Carolina, Republican Richard Burr today edges Democrat Deborah Ross 45% to 43%. Burr leads by 12 points among men; Ross leads by 8 points among women. Both Burr and Ross hold 86% of their self-identified partisan base; those describing themselves as independents split, with 12% of independents voting for Libertarian Sean Haugh, who takes 6% of the vote overall. Burr leads in greater Greensboro; Ross leads in greater Raleigh. Elsewhere, the race is tied.

Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper today edges Republican incumbent Governor Pat McCrory 47% to 45%. Cooper leads by 8 points among voters under age 50; McCrory leads by 6 among voters age 50+. Whites back McCrory by 15 points; blacks back Cooper by 55 points. Independents back Cooper by 5 points; moderates back Cooper by 17. High school educated voters prefer McCrory 5:3; college educated voters prefer Cooper 5:3. Cooper edges McCrory among the least affluent and leads by 8 among the most affluent; middle-income voters split. Cooper leads by 12 in greater Raleigh; McCrory leads by 14 in southern and coastal North Carolina; the race is tied elsewhere.

77% of registered voters say it is “very important” whoever is elected President is qualified to be Commander in Chief on their first day in office. Among Clinton voters, 92% say it is very important; among Trump voters, 65% do.

51% say that based on the content of leaked emails from the Clinton campaign, the Democratic National Committee did not treat the Clinton and Sanders campaigns evenhandedly. 29% say the DNC did treat the campaigns evenhandedly. 77% of Trump voters say the DNC did not act evenhandedly; 24% of Clinton voters agree.

49% of registered voters say based on what they know about the way in which Donald Trump has treated women that Trump is unfit to serve as President. 47% say Trump is not unfit to serve. 32% say Hillary Clinton is unfit to serve as President based on what they know about the way in which Bill Clinton has treated women; 61% say Hillary Clinton is not unfit to serve. Among Trump voters, 3% say Donald Trump is unfit to serve based on what they know about how Donald Trump treats women; among Trump voters, 62% say Hillary Clinton is unfit to serve as President based on what they know about how Bill Clinton treats women.

HB2, the state law passed 7 months ago which prohibited local governments from passing anti-discrimination rules and overturned the Charlotte ordinance that would have allowed transgender people to use the bathroom corresponding to their gender identity, is today seen as a good idea by 45% of registered voters, and a bad idea by 43%. In April, voters by an 11-point margin called the law a good idea. In April, 45% of voters predicted the law would have a negative impact on business, while 29% said it would have no impact. Today, 58% say there has been a negative impact on business; 25% say the law has made no difference. Similarly, in April, a 20-point margin of registered voters said the law would have a negative impact on North Carolina’s overall image; today, that margin has widened to 36 points. Unchanged in seven months: an 11-point margin of registered voters, 50% to 39%, say transgender people should not be allowed to use the bathroom of the gender they identify with.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of North Carolina adults 10/14/16 through 10/16/16. Of the adults, 723 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 651 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Republican Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Barack Obama by 2 points in 2012; Obama defeated Republican John McCain by less than 1 point in 2008. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.

DFL Candidate Craig Has Advantage in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District; Seat Would be ‘Pick-Up’ for Democrats in US House

SurveyUSA Operations - 49 days ago

3 weeks till votes are counted in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, DFL candidate Angie Craig is ever-so-slightly ahead of Republican Jason Lewis in the fiercely fought contest for the open seat left vacant by retiring Republican John Kline.

According to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities, it’s Craig 46% at this hour, Lewis 41%, with 12% of voters yet to decide. Lewis leads among middle-aged voters, but Craig leads among those younger and older. Lewis leads among men, but Craig leads among women; there is a 13-point Gender Gap.

Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue in 2016, Craig leads by 5. Among voters who say terrorism is most important, Lewis leads by 33. Craig holds 88% of the Democratic base. Lewis holds 86% of the Republican base. Independents favor Craig by 9 points, moderates favor Craig by 24 points. Craig leads among lower-income and middle-income voters. Lewis pulls even with Craig among the district’s most affluent voters. Lewis leads among those who started but did not finish college. Craig leads among those with a high-school education and among those with a 4-year college degree.

At this hour, Democrat Hillary Clinton carries Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District by 8 points, 44% to Republican Donald Trump’s 36%. Of Trump supporters, 89% vote for the Republican Lewis. Of Clinton supporters, 88% vote for the Democrat Craig.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from MN-02 10/13/16 through 10/16/16 using Registration-Based Sample (RBS, also-known-as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 600 as likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (known as the cell-phone respondents), were contacted by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the respondent’s cell-phone number, secured the respondent’s cooperation, ensured the respondent’s safety, asked the questions, entered the answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call. MN-02 is Southeast of the Twin-Cities, slicing through Dakota, Goodhue, and Wabasha counties along the Wisconsin border. Incumbent Republican Kline was first elected in 2002, and won re-election to his 7th term in 2014 with 56% of the vote. Democrats aspire to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2016, though few think this is likely. For Democrats to succeed, they will need to flip MN-02 and other seats like it across the country.

48 Hours Till Early Voting Begins in Kansas, No Evident Erosion in Trump Support; Republican Moran Safe

SurveyUSA Operations - 49 days ago

5 weeks ago, riding high nationally, Donald Trump led Hillary Clinton by 12 points in the reliably red state of Kansas. Today, riding low, Trump leads Clinton by 11 points, effectively unchanged, as Sunflower State voters continue to see the Republican as the better choice for President, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.

Trump is at 47%, Clinton is at 36%, Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 7% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2% today, 48 hours until early voting in Kansas begins. Any misgivings about Trump that voters have are expressed this way: 5 weeks ago, 57% of Trump voters said they were voting “for Trump,” compared to 38% who said they were voting “against Clinton.” Today, 51% are voting “for Trump,” a decline of 6 percentage points; 47% say they are voting “against Clinton,” an increase of 9 percentage points. The opposite is true of Clinton: 5 weeks ago, 55% of Clinton supporters said they were voting “for Clinton,” compared to 43% who were voting “against Trump.” Today, 64% of Clinton backers are voting “for Clinton,” an increase of 9 percentage points; 34% are voting “against Trump,” a decrease of 8 percentage points. 41% of Trump supporters today have reservations about Trump. 44% of Clinton supporters today have reservations about Clinton.

Kansas voters say the economy is the most important issue in 2016. Of voters focused on the economy, Trump leads Clinton by 15 points. Among voters who say terrorism is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 25 points. Among voters who say immigration is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 67 points.

Though Clinton performs better among women than men, she still trails Trump among women in Kansas. Trump leads by 6 points among all women, which is a blend of him leading by 5 points among suburban women and leading by 23 points among rural women.

In the contest for United States Senator from Kansas, incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is well positioned at this hour for a second term, 25 points ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Wiesner. 5 weeks ago, Moran led Wiesner 50% to 34%, today, 56% to 31%. Libertarian Robert Garrard is at 5% today. In rural Kansas, Moran leads by 43 points. Among seniors, Moran leads by 44 points. Among evangelical voters, Moran leads by 59 points.

Statewide Favorability Ratings:

Democratic President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 19% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 42%.
Republican Governor Sam Brownback is viewed extremely favorably by 5% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 49%.
Republican Senator Pat Roberts is viewed extremely favorably by 9% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 20%.
Moran is viewed extremely favorably by 11% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 12%.

Context and Methodology:

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 10/11/16 through 10/15/16. Of the adults, 675 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 601 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 election for President, 549 were determined to be likely to vote in the election for U.S. Senator. 3% of voters interviewed for this survey said they almost always vote in Presidential elections, but would not vote in 2016 because they did not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 4% of voters said they almost never vote in Presidential elections but would vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates. All of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16, but during a week when a number of women came forward with allegation of possible sexual misconduct by Trump, and at a time when Trump, claiming to be newly “unshackled,” spoke less guardedly. It is unclear whether additional credible allegations will surface against Trump, or whether the allegations made thus far will be discredited and the tone and tenor of the campaign discourse will become less rancorous. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (62% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes in 2016. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state by 22 points as Obama won a 2nd term. In 2008, John McCain carried the state by 15 points as Obama won his 1st term. In 2004, George W Bush carried KS by 25 points over John Kerry on Bush’s way to a 2nd term. In 2000, Bush carried KS by 21 points. Early voting begins in 48 hours, on Wednesday 10/19/16.

On Eve of Final Presidential Debate, Trump in California Risks Getting Smaller Percentage of Popular Vote Than Any Republican Candidate in the Past 100 Years; Recreational Marijuana Prop 64 Still Leads Ever-So-Slightly; Harris Safe

SurveyUSA Operations - 50 days ago

Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have lost support in the past 17 days, as Republicans beat up on Clinton and Democrats beat up on Trump, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Compared to an identical poll conducted before the 1st Presidential debate, Clinton is down 3 points, Trump is down 3 points, and undecided voters have doubled. Today, as then, Clinton’s lead is 26 percentage points.

With Trump’s support down to 30% at this hour, he falls below the Plimsoll line, and risks receiving a smaller percentage of the popular vote than any Republican candidate in the past 100 years. The low-water mark is currently held by George Herbert Walker Bush, who got 33% of the popular vote in California in a 3-way contest in 1992.

Trump’s support has steadily eroded among the youngest voters, down from 29% in mid-September to 25% in late-September to 20% today. Among independents, Trump has dropped from 28% in mid-September to 22% in late-September to 17% today. Among high-school educated voters, Trump has fallen from 48% to 28%. Among gun owners, Trump has fallen from 47% to 37%. Among affluent voters, Trump has fallen from 38% to 31%.

Counter-intuitively, given the cloud that Trump now campaigns under, his support among Evangelicals has increased, from 46% to 49% to now 53%. Clinton among Evangelicals has fallen from 46% to 36%. Among strong Republicans, Trump is up from 80% to 89%. Clinton is down from 19% to 6%. Among very conservative voters, Clinton is down from 29% to 19%. Among very liberal voters, Trump is down from 6% to 2%, Clinton is up from 84% to 92%. The number of Trump supporters who say they are not voting “for Trump,” but rather “against Clinton,” has increased from 36% to 43% to now 46%. At the same time, the number of Trump voters who acknowledge having reservations about Trump has not budged: 33% then, 33% now.

In an election today for United States Senator from CA, to replace retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Democrat Loretta Sanchez, 45% to 24%. The 21-point Harris advantage is up materially poll-on-poll; it is her largest lead to date. The number of Latinos voting for Harris has dropped from 39% to 35% to now 30%. The number of independents voting for Harris has increased from 27% to 33% to now 35%.

Ballot Measures:

Prop 56, which would increase the tax on cigarettes to $2 per pack, is favored to pass 57% to 35%. Support has eroded.
Proposition 62, which would end the death penalty in CA and replace it with life in prison, trails by 18 points today and is headed for defeat.
Proposition 63, which outlaws large-capacity magazines and requires background checks on ammo purchases, leads by more than 2:1 and will pass.
Proposition 64, which would legalize, regulate and tax recreational marijuana, is backed 51% to 40%. Unchanged from mid-and late-September.

Statewide Favorability Ratings: 

President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 39% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 24%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 12% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 56%. Worse than before.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 20% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 33%. Worse than before.
Governor Jerry Brown is viewed extremely favorably by 15% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 17%. Unchanged.
Dianne Feinstein is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 18%.
Boxer is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 21%. Better than before.

Context and Methodology: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 10/13/16 through 10/15/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16, and during a time of unflattering revelations about both Trump and Clinton. Of the adults, 820 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 725 were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the Presidential election or as certain to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. Of registered voters, 3% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. 6% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (58% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (42% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. As a result, the outcome of Prop 64 cannot be assured at this hour.

After Denouncing Trump, Republican Paulsen Well-Positioned for Re-Election in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District

SurveyUSA Operations - 50 days ago

25 days until votes are counted in Minnesota’s 3rd U.S. Congressional District, incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen is comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Terri Bonoff, 49% to 38%, in spite of, or perhaps because of, Paulsen’s decision to denounce Donald Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

Paulsen seeks his 5th term in Washington. His district, west of Minneapolis, is bisected by U.S. Highway 12 running East and West through Orono and Independence counties, and by Interstate 494 running North and South through Eden Prairie, Minnetonka and Plymouth counties. Paulsen was first elected in 2008. He won by 8 percentage points in 2008, won by 22 points in 2010, won by 16 points in 2012, won by 25 points in 2014, and leads by 11 points at this hour.

Paulsen holds 90% of the Republican base, compared to Bonoff who holds 84% of the Democratic base. Bonoff leads among the youngest voters, but Paulsen leads by double-digits among voters age 35+. Independents back Paulsen by 11 points. Moderates break for Bonoff by 4 points. Paulsen leads among those with less formal education and those with more formal education, leads among the rich, leads among the middle-income voters, and leads among the poor.

Paulsen has a Plus 22 Net job approval rating — 51% of 11/08/16 voters approve of the job Paulsen is doing in Congress; 29% disapprove. Voters focused on terrorism, taxes and the economy back Paulsen. Voters focused on health care split. Voters focused on education back Bonoff.

About this poll: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District 10/10/16 through 10/13/16, using Registration Based sample (RBS, also known as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington D.C. All of the interviews were conducted after Paulsen announced 10/09/16 that he would not vote for Donald Trump, the titular head of his Republican party. Of the registered voters, 579 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were contacted on their cell phone, by live interviewers, who hand-dialed each cell phone number, secured the respondent’s cooperation, guaranteed the respondent’s safety, read the questions, input the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview.

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