In Georgia, Clinton Unable to Seal the Deal, Trails Trump by 7 With 11 Days to Go

SurveyUSA Operations - 81 days ago

Democrats have high hopes for Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, but Hillary Clinton falls short in an election today, 10/28/16, according to SurveyUSA polling for WXIA-TV, the Tegna station in Atlanta.

Republican Donald Trump is at 49%, Clinton at 42%, and Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% at this hour. Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Trump leads by 6. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to vote before polls close on 11/08/16, Trump leads Clinton by 8. When the 2 groups are combined, Trump leads by 7, up from a 4-point Trump lead when SurveyUSA last polled Georgia for WXIA in August.

Trump leads by 58 points among rural men, by 56 points among voters focused on immigration, by 46 points among evangelical voters, by 44 points among whites, by 37 points among rural women, by 28 points among seniors, by 26 points in Northwest GA (which includes Dalton, Rome and 53 counties to the North and West of Greater Atlanta), by 26 points among college-educated whites, by 22 points among middle-income voters and by 18 points among high-school educated men.

Clinton holds 93% of the Democratic base and leads among moderates by 17 points. Although she does have a 21-point edge among just suburban women, when all women statewide are compiled, Clinton leads by just 4 points, not enough to overcome Trump’s 21-point advantage among men statewide.

52% of Trump backers are voting “for Trump,” 46% are voting “against Clinton,” a material change from August.
63% of Clinton backers are voting “for Clinton,” 33% are voting “against Trump,” a slight change from August.
58% of Trump backers are enthusiastic about their candidates, compared to 67% of Clinton backers.
40% of Trump backers have reservations about their candidate, compared to 30% of Clinton backers.

62% of voters (87% of Republicans, 28% of Democrats) say Clinton’s leaked emails are important in 2016.
47% of voters (14% of Republicans, 88% of Democrats) say Trump’s income taxes are important in 2016.
46% of voters (15% of Republican, 85% of Democrats) say Trump’s history with women is important in 2016.
43% of voters (22% of Republicans, 73% of Democrats) say Trump talk about not accepting an election outcome is important.
27% of voters (42% of Republicans, 12% of Democrats) say Bill Clinton’s history with women is important in 2016.

 

Favorability Ratings: 

President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 27% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 36%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 38%.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 47%.

Respondent Filtering / Historical Context: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of GA adults 10/25/16 through 10/27/16. Of the adults interviewed, 683 were registered to vote in Georgia. Of the registered voters, 5% say they “almost always” vote in Presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 5% say they “almost never” vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. These so-called “new” voters split; they do not disproportionately favor Trump. Of the registered voters, 593 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Georgia last voted for a Democrat for President in 1992, when Bill Clinton captured the state’s then 13 electoral votes by 1 percentage point over George H. W. Bush. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Georgia by 8 points. In 2008, John McCain carried Georgia by 7 points. George W. Bush carried Georgia by 17 points in 2004 and by 12 points in 2000.

Out of Time, Trump Fails to Make Inroads in Minnesota Against Clinton, Who Now Leads By 10 With 12 Days Left

SurveyUSA Operations - 83 days ago

Democrat Hillary Clinton, who led Republican Donald Trump by 7 points in Minnesota a month ago, today leads Trump by 10 points, with the finish line in sight, according to SurveyUSA polling for KSTP-TV in in the Twin Cities.

At this hour, it’s Clinton 49%, Trump 39%, Libertarian Gary Johnson 5%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2%. 11% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among those “early” voters, Clinton leads by 48 points, 71% to 23%. Sometimes early voters are a measure of enthusiasm for a candidate and other times early voters are a indicator of one campaign’s better-organized get-out-the-vote effort — the so-called “ground game.” Among voters who have not returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close 11/08/16, Trump trails by 5 points, 46% to 41%. To overcome Clinton’s stockpiled advantage and capture The Land of 10,000 Lakes’ 10 electoral votes, Trump would need to win “late” voters by 8 points.

If Johnson, Stein and all other minor-party candidates are scraped off the ballot and only Trump and Clinton remain, Clinton defeats Trump by 11 points in a head-to-head slugfest today, 53% to 42%.

Enthusiasm for both Trump and Clinton remains tepid: just 49% of Trump voters are voting “for Trump,” 48% are voting “against Clinton.” 58% of Clinton backers are “for Clinton,” 40% are “against Trump.” These numbers are largely unchanged month-on-month. 50% of Trump voters are enthusiastic, 47% have reservations. 54% of Clinton voters are enthusiastic, 45% have reservations.

One month ago, Trump led among independent men by 20 points, now that group is tied.
One month ago, Trump led among all independents by 6, now trails by 5.
One month ago, Clinton led among women by 15 points, now by 20.
One month ago, Trump led among voters with a high-school education by 6 points, now by 1.
One month ago, Trump led among Generation X by 8, now trails by 13. X marks the spot.

85% of Republicans but just 24% of Democrats say leaked emails from the Clinton campaign are important to this year’s election.
94% of Democrats but just 16% of Republicans say Trump’s history with women is important to this year’s Presidential election.
48% of Republicans but just 5% of Democrats say Bill Clinton’s history with women is important to this year’s Presidential election.

Approval Ratings:

President Barack Obama has a Plus 6 Net Job Approval Rating in MN: 50% of voters approve of the job Obama is doing; 44% disapprove.
Governor Mark Dayton has a Plus 8 Net Job Approval Rating in MN: 49% of voters approve of the job Dayton is doing; 41% disapprove.
U.S. Senator Al Franken has a Plus 21 Net Job Approval Rating in MN: 54% of voters approve of the job Franken is doing; 33% disapprove.
U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar has a striking Plus 33 Net Job Approval Rating: 59% of voters approve of the job Klobuchar is doing; 26% disapprove.
24% statewide approve of the job the Minnesota legislature is doing, 56% disapprove.

Filtering and Context: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Minnesota adults 10/22/16 through 10/26/16. Of the adults, 733 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 656 had either already returned a ballot or were judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (67% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (33% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 3% of registered voters today tell SurveyUSA that they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not this year, because they do not like the candidates on the ballot, down from 6% a month ago. 2% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will this year because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. Minnesota last voted for a Republican for President in 1972, when Richard Nixon carried 49 states. In 2012, Obama defeated Mitt Romney in Minnesota by 8 points. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain in Minnesota by 10 points. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 3 points in Bush’s attempt for a 2nd term. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore defeated Bush by 2 points in Bush’s bid for a 1st term.

In San Jose CA, Complicated Measure F, Sequel to Measure B, Appears To Have Enough Support to Pass

SurveyUSA Operations - 84 days ago

Measure F, a compromise designed to end fighting between San Jose City Hall and the labor unions that represent city of San Jose employees, has a broad coalition of support and may become law when votes are counted in 11 days, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KPIX-TV, the CBS-owned station in the Bay Area. But that is far from certain.

Today, “Yes” leads “No” 39% to 16%. The problem? 46% of likely voters are not yet certain whether they will support or oppose F. The measure is not yet on voters’ radar, even though early voting is underway.

Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Yes leads No by 49 points.

F is backed by both Democrats and Republicans, though liberals are much more likely to support the measure than are conservatives. F is favored by whites and non-whites, by rich and poor, by the better educated and by the less-well educated.

Measure F is a compromise that attempts to preserve the essence of San Jose Measure B, which city voters approved in 2012 but which was tied up in litigation until it eventually was re-drafted this year as Measure F. Among those who voted Yes on B in 2012, 62% back F today.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Jose adults 10/24/16 through 10/26/16. Of the adults, 704 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with San Jose specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. Measure F must compete for voter brain space with the Presidential Election, the U.S. Senate election in California and dozens of statewide ballot measures.

In Florida, Could Rising Clinton Tide Sink Rubio? Marco Maintains Slight Edge At The Moment, 2 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted

SurveyUSA Operations - 86 days ago

The hold-your-breath state of Florida has high-profile contests for President and U.S. Senate that could go either way when votes are counted in 14 days, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 in Orlando.

Democrat Hillary Clinton has a narrow, 48% to 45% advantage over Republican Donald Trump, with 6% of voters saying they will vote for minor-party candidates.

Clinton leads 2:1 among the youngest voters. If the youngest voters show up — and that is a significant “if” — Clinton carries the state’s critical 29 electoral votes. Trump leads by 11 points among the state’s seniors, and they will show up. The older the electorate, the better Trump will perform. Clinton leads among women, but not by much: 6 points. Much more worrisome for Trump is that he does not lead among men; Clinton edges him by a nominal 1 point, 47% to 46%. And, putting a finer point on it, Trump does not lead among high-school educated men, a group he must carry; Clinton edges him there by 4 points, 49% to 45%. Among “very conservative” men, Clinton siphons 1 out of 6 voters, from a group where Trump cannot afford to lose a single vote.

Trump leads among the state’s white voters, 50% to 42%. Clinton leads overwhelmingly, as expected, among the state’s African American voters. Cubans break for Trump, 49% to 44%. Non-Cuban Hispanics back Clinton, 56% to 37%. Asians prefer Clinton by 14 points.

4 in 10 voters say the economy is the most important issue in 2016, and among those voters, Clinton leads 5:4. Trump leads by 49 points among voters focused on immigration, but only 1 in 8 voters say immigration is the most important issue. Trump leads by 47 points among Evangelicals, by 24 points among gun owners, by 7 points in military households. Clinton leads by 26 points in Southeast Florida, which is enough to offset Trump’s advantage in Northwest FL (Trump up 20), Central FL (Trump up 7), and Southwest FL (Trump up 4). The candidates are tied in Northeast FL.

Whatever stink there is on either candidate offsets: Among Trump supporters, two-thirds are voting “for Trump,” one-third are voting “against Clinton.” Among Clinton supporters, two-thirds are voting “for Clinton,” one-third are voting “against Trump.” 24% of Trump voters have reservations about Trump. 29% of Clinton supporters have reservations about Clinton.

Incumbent Republican Marco Rubio is running 4 point ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy in the high-profile contest for U.S. Senator, 45% to 41%. Rubio leads 2:1 among Cubans, but by 5 points among non-Cuban Hispanics. 8 in 10 Rubio voters are also Trump voters, and should Trump’s support collapse in the campaign’s final days, Rubio could be caught in the undertow. And, if the Clinton get-out-the-vote operation produces bonus Democrats and friendly Independents beyond what is anticipated here, Murphy may outperform these numbers.

Rubio can take comfort in his 13-point lead among seniors, but the youngest voters back Murphy. The contest may well be decided by Baby Boomers, who today back Rubio by 2 points, 45% to 43%. Murphy leads by 20 points in Southeast Florida, but Rubio leads everywhere else. To upset Rubio, Murphy must gain late ground among independent men, where he trails by 5, and independent women, where he trails by 11.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 state of Florida adults 10/20/16 through 10/24/16. Of the adults, 1,314 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 1,251 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 election. Just 1% of voters interviewed for this survey say they “almost always” vote in Presidential elections, but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. 5% of voters say they “almost never” vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates. Importantly: these “new” voters are spread across the political spectrum; they are not disproportionately Trump supporters. All of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the 3rd Presidential debate and at a time when Trump described himself as “unshackled.” This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (65% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. No state has a higher profile and no state is more fiercely contested than Florida in a Presidential election. Obama carried the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2012 and by 3 percentage points in 2008. Republican George W Bush carried the state by 5 points in 2004 and by a handful of votes in 2000. More than 1 million early ballots have already been returned out of an expected 8.5 million ballots to be counted on Election Day.

Presidential Debates Have Left Some Voters in Southern MN / Northern IA Confused; Few Have Switched From One Candidate to the Other

SurveyUSA Operations - 86 days ago

Just a handful of area residents have changed their minds as a result of watching the first two Presidential debates, a new KAAL-TV poll reveals. Only 2% from Southern MN / Northern IA have switched from Trump to Clinton. An equally tiny but offsetting 3% have switched from Clinton to Trump. A larger number, 12%, say the debates have made them more confused than ever.

When all likely voters who watched one or both debates are examined, Clinton and Trump are effectively even, 41% for Clinton and 40% for Trump, well within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.

52% of area voters say that Donald Trump is not fit to be President.

50% of area voters say Hillary Clinton is not fit to be President.

Clinton voters are 16 times more likely than Trump voters to say a candidate’s temperament is most important when deciding who to vote for.

35% of likely voters (disproportionately Democrats) say that if their state legislator backed Trump, they would be less likely to vote for that representative.

35% of likely voters (disproportionately Republicans) say that if their state legislator backed Clinton, they would be less likely to vote for that representative.

About: 750 adults from across the viewing area were interviewed 10/17/16 through 10/18/16. Of the adults, 653 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 620 were judged to be likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (83% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (17% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device.

In Re-Match in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Nolan an Underdog, 19 Days to Go

SurveyUSA Operations - 88 days ago

Incumbent Democrat Rick Nolan will need to come from behind to hold onto his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Democrats expect to pick-up House seats in the 2016 general election, but this has the potential to be a District that flips from Blue to Red.

Republican challenger Stuart Mills, who lost to Nolan by 3,700 votes in 2014, today narrowly edges Nolan, 45% to 41%, with 14% of likely voters still on the fence and able to swing the contest one way or the other. Either candidate may emerge.

Mills leads among voters younger than 64. Nolan leads only among seniors age 65+. Mills has a 10-point advantage among men, which Nolan cannot overcome with his 3-point advantage among women. 84% of Republicans vote for the Republican; 89% of Democrats vote for the Democrat. But independent voters — critical to both candidates — break for Mills at this hour, 45% to 35%, enough to make him the favorite.

Among voters who say that health care is the most important issue in the campaign, Nolan leads by 17 points. Among voters focused on terrorism, Mills leads 3:1. Among voters focused on taxes, Mills leads 2:1.

High-school educated voters vote overwhelmingly Republican; Nolan leads narrowly among those with a 4-year college degree.

Republican Donald Trump carries the district 47% to 35% over Hillary Clinton at this hour. Of those voting for Trump, 81% also vote for Mills. Of those voting for Clinton, 87% also vote for Nolan.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Minnesota’s 8th U.S. Congressional District 10/16/16 through 10/19/16, using registration based sample (RBS, also-known-as: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 595 likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents) were called on their cell-phones by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, ensured the respondent’s safety, asked the respondent the survey questions, entered the respondent’s answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the interview. MN-08 is a vast expanse of real estate stretching north from St Paul, over the top of Lake Superior, to the Canadian border, and as far west as Hubbard and Wadena Counties. Duluth is one of several population centers.

Will Hillary Clinton Drag Henry Perea Across the Finish Line in Fresno? Or will Donald Trump’s Army Marshal Forces for Lee Brand?

SurveyUSA Operations - 92 days ago

SurveyUSA polling for KFSN-TV in Fresno shows that Donald Trump in California may receive the smallest percentage of votes of any Republican candidate for President in the past 100 years. The question in Fresno is: how does an overwhelming Clinton romp in the Golden State translate when ballots are counted in the city of Fresno’s non-partisan election for Mayor?

Henry R Perea is backed 3:1 by Latinos, 5:3 by African Americans, 5:1 among Strong Democrats.

Lee Brand is backed 2:1 among whites and 9:1 among Strong Republicans.

A larger white, conservative, Republican turnout in the city of Fresno helps Brand and Brand wins. A larger non-white, liberal, Democratic turnout in the city of Fresno helps Perea and Perea wins.

At the moment, the two are exactly where they have been for months: tied.

Not “sort of” tied, or “effectively even.” Exactly and precisely tied: 44% for Brand. 44% for Perea.

Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (about 1 in every 6 voters), Perea leads by 22 points. Is this evidence of greater enthusiasm for Perea? Unclear. Is this evidence of the Democratic Party having a stronger Get-Out-The-Vote operation in California? Perhaps. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close on 11/08/16, Brand leads by 4 points.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the city of Fresno 10/16/16 through 10/18/16. Of the adults, 683 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 569 who have already voted or who promise to do so. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

On Eve of Final Debate, Clinton 10 Atop Trump Nationwide in Take-No-Prisoners Campaign; She Leads by 44 Points Among Urban Women … He Leads by 9 Points Among Rural Women

SurveyUSA Operations - 92 days ago

With Americans across the country already voting, 1 day till the 3rd Presidential debate and 20 days until votes are counted, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeats Republican Donald Trump 46% to 36% in an election today, 10/18/16. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 5%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 2%.

In research conducted exclusively for the Boston Globe and Colby College of Waterville, Maine, SurveyUSA finds:

Trump leads by 6 points among white voters.
Clinton leads by 79 points among African American voters.
Clinton leads by 35 points among Hispanic voters.

Trump leads by 15 points in rural America.
Clinton leads by 8 points in suburban America.
Clinton leads by 34 points in urban America.

Among all women, Clinton leads by 13 points. That breaks down this way:

Trump leads by 9 points among rural women.
Clinton leads by 12 points among suburban women.
Clinton leads by 44 points among urban women.

Seniors split, 41% for Clinton, 40% for Trump. Clinton leads by 30 points among the youngest voters. Independents split, 34% for Trump, 34% for Clinton. Moderates break for Clinton 45% to 33%. The most affluent voters break narrowly for Trump. Clinton leads 2:1 among the least affluent voters.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide 10/11/16 through 10/14/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16. Of the adults, 878 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 845 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote before polls close 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% online.

Battle for Every Vote in Tarheel State: Clinton/Trump, Burr/Ross, McCrory/Cooper All Neck-and-Neck As Early Voting Nears Start

SurveyUSA Operations - 93 days ago

24 hours before the final Presidential debate between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, and 48 hours before North Carolina voters begin casting ballots, Clinton nominally leads Trump by two points, 46% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News. Libertarian Gary Johnson takes 6% of the vote; 4% of likely voters are undecided. In a 2-way match-up, Clinton still edges Trump by 2 points, 48% to 46%.

Trump leads by 11 points among men; Clinton leads by 12 among women — a 23-point gender gap. Among suburban men, Trump leads by 3; among suburban women Clinton leads by 33. In rural NC, Trump leads by 34 points among men, and by 6 points among women. Trump leads among middle-aged voters; Clinton leads among younger and older voters. Among whites, Trump leads 5:3; among blacks, Clinton leads by nearly 7:1. 9% of registered Republicans cross over to vote for Clinton; 17% of registered Democrats cross over to vote for Trump. Unaffiliated voters — those who have not registered a political party preference with the state — are divided. 88% of those who, regardless of their party registration, consider themselves to be Republicans vote Trump; 94% of those who identify as Democrats vote Clinton. Self-described independents favor Trump by 6 points. Clinton wins moderates by 8 points.

Trump leads by 17 points among those who say the economy is the most important issue in this year’s election, and by 45 points among those who say immigration is most important. Clinton leads by 32 points among voters focused on health care and by 62 points among voters who say education is the most important issue. Among voters with high school educations, Trump leads 2:1; among voters who have attended some college, Trump holds a slight lead; among those who have graduated a 4-year college, Clinton leads 5:3. Men with high school educations prefer Trump by nearly 5:1. College-educated whites break for Clinton, 45% to 39%.

In the race for United States Senator from North Carolina, Republican Richard Burr today edges Democrat Deborah Ross 45% to 43%. Burr leads by 12 points among men; Ross leads by 8 points among women. Both Burr and Ross hold 86% of their self-identified partisan base; those describing themselves as independents split, with 12% of independents voting for Libertarian Sean Haugh, who takes 6% of the vote overall. Burr leads in greater Greensboro; Ross leads in greater Raleigh. Elsewhere, the race is tied.

Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper today edges Republican incumbent Governor Pat McCrory 47% to 45%. Cooper leads by 8 points among voters under age 50; McCrory leads by 6 among voters age 50+. Whites back McCrory by 15 points; blacks back Cooper by 55 points. Independents back Cooper by 5 points; moderates back Cooper by 17. High school educated voters prefer McCrory 5:3; college educated voters prefer Cooper 5:3. Cooper edges McCrory among the least affluent and leads by 8 among the most affluent; middle-income voters split. Cooper leads by 12 in greater Raleigh; McCrory leads by 14 in southern and coastal North Carolina; the race is tied elsewhere.

77% of registered voters say it is “very important” whoever is elected President is qualified to be Commander in Chief on their first day in office. Among Clinton voters, 92% say it is very important; among Trump voters, 65% do.

51% say that based on the content of leaked emails from the Clinton campaign, the Democratic National Committee did not treat the Clinton and Sanders campaigns evenhandedly. 29% say the DNC did treat the campaigns evenhandedly. 77% of Trump voters say the DNC did not act evenhandedly; 24% of Clinton voters agree.

49% of registered voters say based on what they know about the way in which Donald Trump has treated women that Trump is unfit to serve as President. 47% say Trump is not unfit to serve. 32% say Hillary Clinton is unfit to serve as President based on what they know about the way in which Bill Clinton has treated women; 61% say Hillary Clinton is not unfit to serve. Among Trump voters, 3% say Donald Trump is unfit to serve based on what they know about how Donald Trump treats women; among Trump voters, 62% say Hillary Clinton is unfit to serve as President based on what they know about how Bill Clinton treats women.

HB2, the state law passed 7 months ago which prohibited local governments from passing anti-discrimination rules and overturned the Charlotte ordinance that would have allowed transgender people to use the bathroom corresponding to their gender identity, is today seen as a good idea by 45% of registered voters, and a bad idea by 43%. In April, voters by an 11-point margin called the law a good idea. In April, 45% of voters predicted the law would have a negative impact on business, while 29% said it would have no impact. Today, 58% say there has been a negative impact on business; 25% say the law has made no difference. Similarly, in April, a 20-point margin of registered voters said the law would have a negative impact on North Carolina’s overall image; today, that margin has widened to 36 points. Unchanged in seven months: an 11-point margin of registered voters, 50% to 39%, say transgender people should not be allowed to use the bathroom of the gender they identify with.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of North Carolina adults 10/14/16 through 10/16/16. Of the adults, 723 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 651 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Republican Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Barack Obama by 2 points in 2012; Obama defeated Republican John McCain by less than 1 point in 2008. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.

DFL Candidate Craig Has Advantage in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District; Seat Would be ‘Pick-Up’ for Democrats in US House

SurveyUSA Operations - 93 days ago

3 weeks till votes are counted in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, DFL candidate Angie Craig is ever-so-slightly ahead of Republican Jason Lewis in the fiercely fought contest for the open seat left vacant by retiring Republican John Kline.

According to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities, it’s Craig 46% at this hour, Lewis 41%, with 12% of voters yet to decide. Lewis leads among middle-aged voters, but Craig leads among those younger and older. Lewis leads among men, but Craig leads among women; there is a 13-point Gender Gap.

Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue in 2016, Craig leads by 5. Among voters who say terrorism is most important, Lewis leads by 33. Craig holds 88% of the Democratic base. Lewis holds 86% of the Republican base. Independents favor Craig by 9 points, moderates favor Craig by 24 points. Craig leads among lower-income and middle-income voters. Lewis pulls even with Craig among the district’s most affluent voters. Lewis leads among those who started but did not finish college. Craig leads among those with a high-school education and among those with a 4-year college degree.

At this hour, Democrat Hillary Clinton carries Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District by 8 points, 44% to Republican Donald Trump’s 36%. Of Trump supporters, 89% vote for the Republican Lewis. Of Clinton supporters, 88% vote for the Democrat Craig.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from MN-02 10/13/16 through 10/16/16 using Registration-Based Sample (RBS, also-known-as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 600 as likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (known as the cell-phone respondents), were contacted by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the respondent’s cell-phone number, secured the respondent’s cooperation, ensured the respondent’s safety, asked the questions, entered the answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call. MN-02 is Southeast of the Twin-Cities, slicing through Dakota, Goodhue, and Wabasha counties along the Wisconsin border. Incumbent Republican Kline was first elected in 2002, and won re-election to his 7th term in 2014 with 56% of the vote. Democrats aspire to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2016, though few think this is likely. For Democrats to succeed, they will need to flip MN-02 and other seats like it across the country.

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