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In Oregon, What Voters ‘Say’ and What Voters ‘Do’ May be Two Different Things; Cylvia Hayes Impact Analyzed

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 8 days ago

With each passing hour bringing new revelations about Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber’s fiance, Cylvia Hayes, KATU-TV and SurveyUSA attempt here to break the Oregon electorate into 4 quadrants. The question asked of voters paying close attention to the governor’s election and who are following news stories about Hayes, was this:

Which of the following best describes you?

1: I was going to vote for John Kitzhaber and I’m still going to vote for Kitzhaber.
2: I was going to vote for Dennis Richardson and I’m still going to vote for Richardson.
3: I was going to vote for Kitzhaber but now I will vote for Richardson.
4: I was going to vote for Richardson but now I will vote for Kitzhaber.

Answer:

38% were going to vote for Kitzhaber and will still vote for Kitzhaber.
37% were going to vote for Richardson and will still vote for Richardson.
18% were going to vote for Kitzhaber but now will vote for Richardson (disproportionately young, male, independent, liberals).
1% were going to vote for Richardson but now will vote for Kitzhaber.
6% overall, and, importantly, 9% of Democrats, are not sure what to do.

Earlier this week, SurveyUSA and KATU-TV reported that incumbent Democrat Kitzhaber led Republican challenger Richardson by 13 points, 51% to 38%. Will 18% of Oregon voters in fact defect from Kitzhaber over the Hayes news stories? Or, are these voters just saying they will switch to Richardson when in fact they will return Kitzhaber to office for a 4th term? Some of each, of course. In 13 days, we’ll know for sure how many defectors there actually were.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 Oregon adults 10/20/14 and 10/21/14. Of the adults, 856 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 60% (514 voters) are paying a lot of attention to the race for Governor. Of those paying attention, 79% (407 voters) are following stories about the fiance, Hayes. The poll’s essential question was asked just of the 407 qualified respondents. This may or may not directly overlap the universe of Oregon’s likely voters in 2014. Of note: Oregon has on the ballot, in addition to the Governor’s contest, a measure to legalize recreational marijuana. If the electorate is disproportionately young on election day, because of the marijuana initiative, that could be trouble for Kitzhaber. Young voters, of the 4 age groups cross-tabbed, are the most likely to say they will defect to Richardson

In NV, With Voting Underway, Question 3, ‘The Margin Tax,’ Trails; In Clark County, Lombardo and Burns Battle To Replace Gillespie as Sheriff

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 8 days ago

Nevada’s hotly contested ballot measure, Question 3, which would tax certain NV businesses and use the money to fund public education, appears to be losing steam as Election Day approaches, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KLAS-TV in Las Vegas. “No” leads “Yes” 49% to 34% at this hour. Defeat is likely.

The measure is officially known as the “Nevada Margin Tax for Public Schools Initiative.” Republicans and conservatives overwhelmingly oppose it. Young people and Hispanic Americans overwhelmingly support it. The measure trails in all 4 regions of the state.

In the election for Sheriff of Clark County NV, which includes the city of Las Vegas and 70% of NV’s population, Assistant Sheriff Joe Lombardo and retired Las Vegas Police Department Captain Larry Burns are locked in a tight fight that could go either way. 32% of Clark County voters tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote for Burns. 26% tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote for Lombardo. But 43% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they are not certain how they will vote in the contest, though ballots will be counted in less than 2 weeks. Either law-man may emerge victorious.

Burns’s support is disproportionately young. The younger the electorate on 11/04/14, the better Burns will do. Lombardo’s support is older. He leads by more than 2:1 among Clark County’s seniors. The older the electorate, the better Lombardo will do.

Burns, who has a high-school education, leads by 2:1 among high-school educated voters. The contest is tied in the city of Las Vegas. What advantage Burns may have comes from the rest of Clark County, where he leads by 10 points. Incumbent Sheriff Doug Gillespie is not seeking a 3rd term.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 920 state of NV adults 10/16/14 through 10/21/14. Of the adults, 772 were registered to vote statewide. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 602 were likely to vote statewide, and a subset of them, 434, were likely to vote in Clark County. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters statewide) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters statewide) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

No Telling What Will Happen in CA-52, As Voters Digest News Stories About Challenger Carl DeMaio

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 8 days ago

In research conducted in the middle of fast-unfolding news events, voters in California’s 52nd US Congressional District appear to shrug-off charge and counter-charge involving the Republican challenger Carl DeMaio, and may yet elect him to the US House of Representatives, unseating 1st-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for the U-T San Diego newspaper and KGTV-TV 10News in San Diego.

Interested parties must exercise extreme caution when interpreting these results. Wildcard news events may overtake the normal back-and-forth of a campaign for the US House of Representatives. 89% of the interviews for this survey were conducted after reports DeMaio had been accused by a former campaign worker of sexual harassment. This story was widely reported. The remaining 11% of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the San Diego District Attorney announced that it would not press criminal charges against DeMaio. But: between now and Election Day, the contest may be more volatile than were external forces not in play.

Today, it’s DeMaio 46%, Peters 45%, with 10% undecided. SurveyUSA has polled the contest 3 times since Labor Day. In that time, DeMaio has never polled less than 46%. Peters has never polled above 47%. So far, there is no erosion in DeMaio’s support among Republicans, where he still leads 6:1, and no increase in Peters’ support among Democrats. However, among Independents, poll-on-poll, the number of undecided voters has gone up from 8% to 18%. Where these 18% of Independent voters land on Election Day may well determine the outcome of the contest.

Live interviewers were used to reach cell-phone respondents for this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from California’s 52nd US Congressional District 10/17/14 through 10/20/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/04/14. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones, by live operators who hand-dialed the cell phone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call.

With the Finish Line Now in Sight, and Many Votes Already Cast, Georgia’s Governor and Senate Contests Remain Anyone’s Guess

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 8 days ago

Is Nathan Deal going to be re-elected as Georgia’s Governor? We can’t tell you that. Is Michelle Nunn going to “take away” Saxby Chambliss’ US Senate Seat from the Republican Party? We can’t tell you that either. Which is pretty remarkable given how close we are to Election Day.

What we can tell you is that the latest exclusive weekly tracking poll for WXIA-TV in Atlanta continues to show 2 top-of-ticket contests that ever-so-slightly ebb and flow, and remain too-close-to-call. A runoff-election for one or both contests is possible, but by no means certain.

The brand-new numbers, collected by SurveyUSA, find Democrat Nunn at 46%, Republican David Perdue at 44%, in the nationally significant contest for Senator — results that are within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. And the brand-new numbers show incumbent Republican Deal at 45%, and Democratic challenger Jason Carter at 43%, in the contest for Governor of GA, a nominal 2-point Republican advantage that may or may not turn out to be statistically significant.

In the Senate race, poll-on-poll, week-on-week, Nunn is down 2 points, Perdue is down 1 point. Undecided is up 3 points. Perdue has been steadily, though gradually, declining over the past 6 WXIA-TV tracking polls, going back to August, when he polled at 50%. Nunn has been not-so-consistently gaining ground. It is unclear if the 48% she reached last week is a peak or a plateau. Wildcard Libertarian Amanda Swafford polls at 4% today, but because her support is so young, and because she receives just 1% among respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, it is hard to handicap just how much of a spoiler role she will play. Among women, Perdue’s support is down from a high of 44% to today 38%. Among Independents, Perdue at one point led 2:1, but now is tied, 40% to 40%. On the other hand, among voters who have already returned a ballot, Perdue has a 53% to 43% advantage. For Nunn to win, she will need to overcome those “banked” Republican votes between now and Election Day. No down-ballot Democrat gets more than 44% of the vote.

In the Governor race, poll-on-poll, week-on-week, Deal is down 1 point, Carter is down 3 points. Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4%, siphoning votes from across the political spectrum. 8% are undecided. In greater Atlanta, Carter goes from 59% last week to 49% this week. That alone could account for the Democratic slippage observed at the highest level. If neither candidate gets to 50%, state law requires a runoff.

* For School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods is at 46% today, Democrat Valarie Wilson is at 44%.
* For Attorney General, Republican Sam Olens leads Democrat Greg Hecht, 47% to 40%.
* For Lieutenant Governor, Republican Casey Cagle today is 8 points ahead of Democrat Connie Stokes, 48% to 40%.
* For Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp today leads Democrat Doreen Carter 49% to 40%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of GA adults 10/17/14 through 10/20/14. Of the adults, 653 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 606 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The US Senate seat is open.

As Fiance Cylvia Hayes Revelations Unfold, Oregon Yawns; Incumbent Dem Gov Kitzhaber Still Outpaces GOP Challenger Richardson; Ballot Measure #91, To Legalize Recreational Marijuana, Gains; Opposition Builds to Measure #92, Which Would Label Certain Foods

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 9 days ago

Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber’s fiance, Cylvia Hayes, made as much news during the interviewing for this survey as did either of the 2 candidates for office. Yet Oregon voters seem to-date unfazed by the developments, and remain poised to re-elect the Governor to a 4th term, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for KATU-TV in Portland.

Kitzhaber today leads Republican Dennis Richardson by 13 points, 51% to 38%. In 3 previous KATU-TV polls, before Hayes was in the headlines, Kitzhaber led by 13 points, 12 points and 12 points.

Voters who say Kitzhaber deserves almost all of the blame for the failure of “Cover Oregon,” overwhelmingly vote for Richardson. Voters who say that Kitzhaber deserves none of the blame, overwhelmingly vote for Kitzhaber.

Briefly overshadowed in some quarters by the week’s events, is Oregon Ballot Measure 91, which would legalize recreational marijuana for adults age 21 and older. Today, “Yes” on 91 leads “No” 48% to 37%. Compared to an identical 09/25/14 SurveyUSA poll, Yes is up 4 points, No is down 3 points. Yes had led by 4, now leads by 11. Greater Portland supports 91 by 15 points. The “rest of Oregon” supports 91 by just 2 points. Caution: support for this measure is young. Opposition is old. Older voters are more reliable than younger voters in a mid-term election. Any outcome remains possible, though “Yes” has the upper hand at this hour.

Opposition to Ballot Measure #92, which would require that certain genetically engineered foods be labeled, is up, support is down. A month ago, 92 led by 32 points. Today, 92 leads by just 7 points, 44% Yes to 37% No. Today, liberals support by 7:2. Conservatives oppose by 4:1. Any outcome is possible.

All but lost on the radar screen is 1st-term Democratic incumbent US Senator Jeff Merkley, who continues to cruise to re-election. Merkley today leads Republican challenger Monica Wehby 53% to 32%. In 3 previous polls, Merkley led by 18 points, 19 points and 20 points. Today: 21 points.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 10/16/14 through 10/19/14. Of the adults, 623 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 561 were determined by SurveyUSA to be return a ballot before the 11/04/14 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Interviewing for this survey was conducted during fast-moving news events. It is possible voters have not had time to digest some of the news as yet. In that case, these numbers may change again between now and Election Day.

In Minnesota, With Voting Underway, DFL Incumbents Franken and Dayton Well Positioned for Re-Election

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 9 days ago

In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, 10/17/14, Al Franken defeats Republican challenger Mike McFadden 53% to 38%.

In an election for Governor of Minnesota today, Mark Dayton defeats Republican challenger Jeff Johnson 50% to 40%.

SurveyUSA has polled the US Senate race 3 times. Franken has polled at 51%, 55% and today at 53%.

SurveyUSA has polled the Governor race 3 times. Dayton has polled at 49%, 51% and today at 50%.

45% of Minnesota likely voters say they will vote for a Democrat in their local race for US House of Representatives. 42% say they will vote for a Republican.

For the state legislature, almost the identical results: 46% will vote for a Democrat in their local contest for the Minnesota House of Representatives. 42% will vote for a Republican.

Job approval ratings for elected officials and government agencies:

President Barack Obama: 38%.
Dayton: 52%.
Franken: 55% .
US Senator Amy Klobuchar: 62% .
Minnesota state legislature: 31% .
MNSure: 26%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of MN adults 10/14/14 through 10/16/14. Of the adults, 656 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 597 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

2 Weeks Till Votes are Counted, Kentucky’s 5-Term McConnell Still Can’t Dispatch Democrat Challenger Grimes

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 9 days ago

The teeter-totter that is the 2014 fight for US Senator from Kentucky tips ever so slightly back in favor of Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell today, 10/21/14, two weeks until votes are counted, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV.

Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes led in Bluegrass polls conducted last Winter and Spring. McConnell rebounded and led in Bluegrass polls conducted over the Summer and early Fall. Then, 10 days ago, a Bluegrass poll that coincided with new national Democratic TV commercials showed Grimes nominally back on top. Today, ever-so-slightly, the opposite. The pendulum has not swung much, but what movement there is, poll-on-poll, favors the 5-term incumbent, who today has a 44% to 43% nominal advantage. Of concern to both candidates in a contest this close: 8% are undecided (including 24% of Independents), and another 10% of those who state a preference may yet change their mind (9% of McConnell backers may yet switch; 11% of Grimes backers may yet switch). Poll-on-poll, McConnell is flat, at 44%. Poll-on-poll, Grimes dropped 3 points, from 46% to 43%. All such movement is well within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error, and may or may not be statistically significant.

At this hour, in Kentucky:

30% have a favorable opinion of President Barack Obama. 54% unfavorable. Minus 24.
38% have a favorable opinion of McConnell, his highest number in the past 5 months. 47% unfavorable. Minus 9.
40% have a favorable opinion of Grimes. 43% unfavorable. Minus 3, the 1st time in 5 months she has had a negative number.
Libertarian David Patterson gets 5% of the vote, taking votes from both ends of the political spectrum.
47% say Republicans would do a better job if they controlled the US Senate in the next Congress. 42% say Democrats would do better, unchanged from the most recent Bluegrass Poll. Of self-identified Democrats, 19% (almost 1 in 5) say Republicans would do a better job.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of KY adults 10/15/14 through 10/19/14. Of the adults, 745, were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 655 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

2 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted in North Carolina, Democrat Hagan Remains in front of Republican Tillis; Libertarian Siphons Key GOP Votes

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 9 days ago

Every vote is critical for Thom Tillis, desperately trying to claw his way to even in the race for United States Senator from North Carolina. Yet those last few votes that would make this free-spending contest a tie, appear to go to Libertarian Sean Haugh, and not to Tillis, according to new SurveyUSA polling conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh.

Today, 2 weeks until votes are counted, Democrat Kay Hagan leads Tillis 46% to 43%. Haugh takes 6%, but he does not take equally. He takes more votes from self-identified Republicans than he does from Democrats. He takes more votes from conservatives than he does from liberals, and he takes more votes from men than from women. Tillis leads by 8 points among seniors, the biggest lead he has in any age group, but here again, Haugh takes more votes among seniors than Haugh takes from any other age group.

None of this is to diminish the advantage Hagan has in poll after poll. That is to her credit, in one of the nation’s most high-profile contests. But offsetting empathy is owed to a Republican challenger, who is consistently Oh-So-Close, and yet Oh-So-Far behind.

At this hour:

Hagan holds 85% of the Democratic base. 9% of Democrats cross-over.
Tillis holds 87% of the Republican base. 7% of Republicans cross-over.
Independents split: 38% back Tillis, 36% back Hagan, 14% back Hough, and 13% are undecided (compared to 5% who are undecided among all likely voters).
Tillis Holds 79% of conservatives. Hagan holds 84% of liberals. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat, and provide Hagan what breathing room she has.
Hagan leads by 22 points in greater Raleigh, leads by a couple of points in greater Greensboro, but trails Tillis in greater Charlotte and in Southern/Coastal NC.
Voters with a 4-year college degree break 5:4 Democrat. Voters with some college, but short of a degree, break 5:4 Republican.
Overwhelmingly, voters say that the economy is the most important issue when casting their ballot, and on that issue, Tillis leads 54% to 37%.
But Hagan leads on health care, and Hagan leads overwhelmingly on education.

What can Tillis hold on to? Of voters who say they may change their mind between now and Election Day, twice as many are Hagan supporters as are Tillis supporters.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 adults from the state of North Carolina 10/16/14 through 10/20/14. Of the adults, 691 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 568 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a survey on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Tillis leads by 1 point among landline respondents. Hagan leads by 16 points among cell-phone respondents.

In California’s 17th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Honda Faces Strong Opposition from Fellow Democrat Khanna; Jump Ball

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 9 days ago

In an election today, 10/20/14, for the US House of Representatives from California’s 17th Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Mike Honda finishes effectively even with fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KPIX-TV, the CBS-owned affiliate in San Francisco.

Two weeks until votes are counted, it’s Democrat Honda 37%, fellow-Democrat Khanna 35%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. An enormous 28% of voters are undecided, with voting already underway. Honda seeks his 8th term.

Khanna leads among Asian Americans, who are a majority in the District. Honda leads among whites, blacks and Hispanic-Americans, who are the minorities in the District. Among the relatively few voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Khanna leads. Among the large number of voters who promise SurveyUSA they will return a ballot before the deadline, Honda leads, though narrowly.

Honda leads among Democrats, moderates and liberals. Khanna leads among Republicans, Independents and conservatives. Khanna leads among men. Honda leads among women. There is a 25-point Gender Gap, unusually large given that both candidates are titularly from the same political party.

Live interviewers were used to contact cell-phone respondents for this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from California’s 17th Congressional District 10/16/14 through 10/19/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 579 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Voters reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were contacted on their cell phones by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, asked the questions, logged the answers, and remained on the phone until the interview was completed. Khanna’s support is 3 times higher among the recorded-voice phone calls than it is among the live-operator calls. Honda’s support is comparable across the 2 different interviewing modes.

58% in USA Following Ebola News ‘Very’ Closely; 19% ‘Very’ Concerned They Will Catch Ebola; 24% Have Already Changed Daily Routine

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 14 days ago

In the middle of rapidly unfolding news events, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 USA adults to measure nationwide public opinion on the Ebola virus. The research was conducted for Gannett Broadcasting. The findings:

58% in USA are following new stories about the Ebola virus “very” closely. An additional 33% are following “somewhat” closely. Total: 91% following.
19% of Americans are “very” concerned that they may catch Ebola. An additional 29% are “somewhat” concerned. Total: 48% concerned.
24% of Americans have already changed a part of their daily routine to avoid catching Ebola.
78% of Americans say the federal government needs to do more to protect Americans from the disease.
47% of Americans say the country is prepared to deal with isolated cases of Ebola.
But 73% say America is not prepared to deal with a widespread outbreak of Ebola.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents were included in this research, which was conducted 10/14/14 through 10/15/14.

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