61% of adults from New York’s 13th Congressional District say their U.S. Representative, Republican Vito Fossella, should remain in office, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WABC-TV in New York. 32% say Fossella should resign.

Both Republicans and Democrats say Fossella should stay put: 66% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats say he should remain in office.

Fossella has been in the news following a drunk-driving arrest in Virginia and for acknowledging having fathered a child during an extramarital affair. SurveyUSA did not ask specifically about the recent coverage of Fossella, but simply asked his constituents questions about his job performance and his political future.

Other findings:

Fossella has a high approval rating among his constituents — 67% approve of his job performance, 28% disapprove, yielding a Net Job Approval of Plus 39. By way of comparison, statewide SurveyUSA research conducted in April shows New York Governor David Paterson has a Plus 27 Net Job Approval; Senators Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer have approval ratings of Plus 17 and Plus 29, respectively. Fossella has a positive approval rating among Republicans and Democrats alike.

Asked if Fossella should run for re-election in the fall, however, numbers shift somewhat: overall, 53% say he should seek re-election; 42% say he should not. Republicans say he should run by a margin of nearly 2-1; Democrats are divided equally on the question. Fully crosstabbed results of the poll are here.

41 pollsters have a released a public poll in the 7 days before one of the 2008 presidential primaries. Here is a high-level analysis of pollster performance, sorted from lowest Median Error to highest (where lower is better, and zero is perfect).

A separate posting will be made with the same data sorted by Mean (average) Error.

(click on the chart until legible; all supporting detail follows on the jump).

Detailed view of the same More »

41 pollsters have a released a public poll in the 7 days before one of the 2008 presidential primaries. Here is a high-level analysis of pollster performance, sorted from lowest Mean (Average) Error to highest (where lower is better, and zero is perfect).

A separate posting will be made with the same data sorted by Median Error.

(click on the chart until legible; all supporting detail follows on the jump).

Detailed view of the same More »

SurveyUSA also polled on 3 Gubernatorial primaries on Tuesday 05/06/08. Results follow. (click on the chart until legible).

In the North Carolina Democratic Primary for President, Public Policy Polling was the most accurate by 5 measures, Zogby was the most accurate by 3 measures. (click on the chart until legible).

In the Indiana Democratic Primary for President, Public Policy Polling was the most accurate by 5 measures, Insider Advantage was the most accurate by 3 measures. (click on the chart until legible)

Two weeks to the Democratic Primary for President in Kentucky, Hillary Clinton remains decisively atop Barack Obama, according to this fourth tracking poll conducted by SurveyUSA for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. Today, it’s Clinton 62%, Obama 28%, effectively unchanged from SurveyUSA polls released on 04/29/08 and 04/15/08. Clinton leads in every region of the state and in every demographic subpopulation of consequence.

Kentucky votes, along with Oregon, on May 20.

Here’s the take from the political reporter at WHAS, Mark Hebert.

On the eve of the North Carolina Democratic Primary, with 25% of votes already cast, Barack Obama has no breathing room in his hope to defeat Hillary Clinton in popular votes, according to SurveyUSA’s 8th and final tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV, the ABC-owned TV station in Raleigh. On the final day of the fiercely fought campaign, it’s Obama 50%, Clinton 45%. There is no foreseeable outcome in North Carolina, regardless of which candidate wins the popular vote, where one candidate collects significantly more Convention delegates than the other. Therefore, the exact final vote totals have much more symbolic importance than real importance. The popular vote is remarkably stable: In 6 SurveyUSA polls released since Super Tuesday, Obama has polled at 50%, 49%, 49%, 50%, 49%, 50%. The contest is stable among men, where Obama leads by 11. The contest is stable among women, where the two remain tied. In Charlotte and Western NC, there is the slightest momentum for Clinton. In the Research Triangle, in Southern NC and in Coastal NC, there is slight offsetting momentum to Obama. The net is a wash. If Obama wins, it will be entirely from the 19% of voters who describe themselves as Liberal. Clinton leads by 9 among Conservatives and leads by 8 among Moderates. If Obama wins the popular vote, it will be because of his 16-point advantage among Liberals. Clinton has increasing momentum among voters age 50 to 64, where she has gone from 30% in January to 51% today, her highest showing. Among those age 65+, Clinton leads by 20 points; the more seniors who vote, the better Clinton does. But there is offsetting momentum among younger voters, some of whom may be first-time voters, and not all of whom may show-up at the precinct. 1 in 4 of SurveyUSA’s likely voters say they have already voted. Among those who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 16 points. Among those who say they will vote on Primary Day, Obama and Clinton are effectively tied.

For WTVD’s analysis, including downticket races, click here.

24 hours untill votes are counted in the Indiana Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama in the symbolically important popular vote, and possibly by enough to pick up more than a trivial number of net Convention delegates, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-primary tracking poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. In 4 tracking polls over the past 5 weeks, Clinton has never polled lower than 52%, Obama has never polled higher than 43%. At the wire, they finish: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%. Among males, the two have been tied in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. Among females, Clinton has always led by at least 14, and finishes ahead by 22. Among Republicans and Independents, the two are effectively tied. Among Democrats, Clinton finishes ahead by 19. Clinton leads among Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals. She leads among Pro Life and Pro Choice voters, among regular and not-so-regular church goers. In Northern Indiana, she leads by 11. In Central and Southern Indiana, she leads by 27. In greater Indianapolis, Obama leads. Among voters under 35, Obama leads. Among voters over 35, Clinton leads.

Full results and tracking graphs are here.

New York Governor David Paterson finishes his first full month in office with a 55% approval rating, a 28% disapproval rating, and an overall Net Job Approval of Plus 27.

Paterson, who took office on March 17 in the wake of Eliot Spitzer’s resignation, is viewed favorably across most demographic groups, with two notable exceptions: Hispanic-Americans and conservatives.

For context, New York’s two United States Senators today have Net Job Approvals of Plus 29 (Schumer) and Plus 17 (Clinton). President Bush has a Net Job Approval of Minus 46.

Paterson’s Plus 27 is nearly the mirror image of Eliot Spitzer’s final Net Job Approval number, in February — a Minus 22 — but it’s also notably lower than Spitzer’s approval rating in his first month in office — a Plus 38.

Research conducted exclusively for WABC-TV in New York, WNYT-TV in Albany, and WHEC-TV in Rochester.